Detroit's shot at improvement lies with the youngsters

Al Kaline was quoted last year that that the Tigers had perhaps the best collection of young talent on hand that he'd seen in his several decades with the organization. Many wrote that off as hyperbole from a legend who is also a good company-man. But, at the end of the day, Kaline has seen a lot in his years and if he thinks there is talent suiting up, maybe he gets the benefit of the doubt.

When this observer looks at the Tigers for 2011 it just appears certain to me that the Tigers know, within some degree of certainty, what the established stars are going to produce. Justin Verlander is the workhorse and as long as he's healthy the Tigers know that every 5th day an established Ace is on the hill. Miguel Cabrera, despite the recent DUI, is the rock of the offense. He's been highly durable in his career and extremely productive. Just pencil him in. Magglio Ordonez has shown what he can do at the plate....how many games will he be available is the only question. Victor Martinez is a solid bet to be the V-Mart we've seen in the AL for several years. Jose Valverde will be strutting his "El Papa Grande" stuff. None of these players are great bets to bust out to another level of production perhaps...but all are safe bets to keep performing as we've seen. Beyond the high performing talent there are vets like Inge and Peralta who aren't star but have established a track record of performance that can be banked upon (insert your Inge-one-liner here!).

Its the next level of talent where the Tigers need to see a solid percentage of players take the next step and show progression in their skill level and productivity. Thankfully for Tigers fans, the list is fairly long to choose from. Austin Jackson, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Ryan Perry, Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch, Casper Wells, Scott Sizemore, Ryan Strieby, Daniel Schlereth, Robbie Weinhardt, Brayan Villarreal, Charlie Furbush, Andy Oliver, and so on...

Look at that list and take a guess how many will really take a positive step forward. Whatever total you guess is probably in direct proportion to what you think the Tigers chances at contention is this season. Let's look at a few individuals and assess their chances:

Scott Sizemore: Played hurt early, struggled, sent to Toledo. He went back to raking at Toledo and came back to Detroit and showed a little better toward the end of the year. This year he's completely healthy and hopes to be ready to claim a gig. He has a bit of extra-base power that would be excellent to see flourish at the MLB level. Something that Will Rhymes can't provide and really Placido Polanco didn't his final two season in Detroit either. If Sizemore can post a slash-line in the .275/.350/.425 range the Tigers will have some solid production out of the 2B position for the first time since Polanco's '07 season.

Austin Jackson: A solid rookie campaign led to a second place spot in ROY voting. Much has been made of the "luck" of his BABIP (batting average-balls in play) and how that is unsustainable. Perhaps so. But that assumes he won't make any progress in other parts of his game. He may cut down on the K's, increase the BB-rate, and mature in a tad more power. If he does those things it would be mitigate any regression in his BABIP. Last year he drilled a high percentage of line drives as well...can he keep centering the ball at such a great clip? If the answer is yes and he shows growth in other phases of his offensive game the Tigers will have a true weapon on their hands. I would rate Jackson as still a very volatile stock though. Cutting down the K-rate can be very challenging...not every player does. If his OBP falls much from last year's .345 he's then not a very effective leadoff hitter. Jackson is also a great defender and that is key for a newcomer to the rotation like Phil Coke who is a flyball pitcher.

Rick Porcello: Posted about him in the previous entry. Suffice it to say, if he can continue to show the command he did after his Toledo sojourn (14 BB in 92 IP) his chances of success go up. If he can raise his K-rate from the pedestrian levels it has been at , then a star could be born. Will the Tigers take the shackles off his repertoire this year? He's thrown 70+% fastballs to this point in his career. Will the curve/change-up be seen more this season?

Max Scherzer: Quite simple....were the final 4 months the Real Scherzer? If so....not much more needs be said.

Brennan Boesch: An All-Star for two months....a high-schooler dropped into MLB for the final two+ months. Which guy comes back in '11. Will it be merely someone in the middle? Probably. The guy has legit lefty power. That is a scarce resource and one worth giving every opportunity to succeed. He'll get it this year....will he make anything of it?

Ryan Perry: He has shown glimpses of justifying the first round draft status. He has also not kept a head of steam up and struggled at times. Command can get spotty and he ends up grooving one to get it over the plate. This is one case where I feel Rick Knapp needs to show why Pitching Coach's have an effect. Perry has Closer-stuff....will he get his performance to that level?

Alex Avila: He started to show the defensive chops last year. Avila has a gun and looked pretty solid blocking balls in the dirt. His batting average was awful but the good thing was that he kept his OBP around 100 points higher than his BA most of the year. The ability to work a walk shows some plate presence. If his power re-surfaces and he starts to have a few more balls find holes I think he could develop into a left-handed Kurt Suzuki type of offensive player. That's a player you can win with behind the plate.

Andy Oliver: Initial reports this spring are excellent. He could arrive before Memorial Day in Detroit if he gets off to a good start in the minors. If he starts to throw his off-speed pitches for strikes (good strikes...not meatballs) then the Tigers will have blown the doors off of a second round pick. Many folks forget (or never knew if you don't follow the MLB draft process) that Andy Oliver was projected for the Top 10 overall of his draft year.....but during his final year and half at Oklahoma State he became embroiled in a legal fight with the NCAA over representation. He was nearly suspended only to get reinstated late. This may have led to his iffy final year in college that saw his stock drop a bit. This legal spat w/the NCAA may have enabled the Tigers to cash in for a player that otherwise never would have been there for them.

The list could on...but the idea is clear. The Tigers have some young players that can be legitimately expected to improve and potentially improve a lot. If enough of them make the jump and add to what can be expected from the established stars then the Tigers should contend. Kaline is right...there is a lot of youth to dream on in the Tigers camp. Their respective ceilings of performance is not established and might be higher than some think. The proof is in the pudding....we'll see what happens.