My son was born on June 24th. The first hour things were perfect.....or so we thought. His "APGAR" score was great and he was breathing fine and so on. After spending about 30 minutes with my wife in the Recovery Room I went back to the nursery. Before I even got in the door I saw a Doctor and three nurses gathered around....this can't be good. So started a long couple of weeks of worry and patience.
For our purposes we'll call him "Boesch". Boesch started have some unexplained movements shortly after I left. Not quite "convulsions"...not quite "seizures"....they were calling it "posturing"...he also appeared to be having trouble breathing for short periods. They took him to the NICU. I had to go back and pull the rug out from under my wife that things that were perfect moments ago no longer were.
I went to the NICU...the "posturing" had gotten worse. The Doctor, we'll call her Dr. All Business, was now worried about seizures and a brain bleed so ordered a CT scan. Boesch had to be intubated for this. Not good. He would end up on the vent for 7 days and with a good dose of an anti-seizure med that kept him pretty much out of it the majority of the time. A quite still, silent baby is not a happy sight.
Dr. All Business was off. She was replaced, thankfully for only a short time, by someone we'll call "Dr. FAB" (Flatline Automaton B#*!H). Dr. FAB missed out on "bedside manor" training. Her sole contribution seemed to be scaring the bejeezus out of my wife (indeed she scared us enough that we performed an emergency Baptism ourselves, just in case..a wrenching thing to resort to). There were very few people who weren't great to work at the hospital...FAB was an exception even though I'm sure her work with Boesch was by the book and in his best interest. Dr. FAB was replaced by Dr. Taj Mahal and then Dr. Irish-name. Both taking the time to explain things thoroughly to us.
Boesch kept getting tests done. CT scan....normal. MRI....normal. EEG #1....normal. 24-hr EEG....normal. Still some of the "posturing" continued but it was changing to short jerky movements of his arms. We met with two neurologists....both great people. Dr. Al-whosy-whatsit (my wife's name for him, she could not remember it....she was medicated after all post-surgery!) and Dr. Kindness, who the nurses were all excited was working with us. (a good sign...the nurses know what's up) They came to us with the most heartening possibility. Unexplained movements in newborns happen...and sometimes finding no glaring cause can be a good thing as then brain development in newborns takes over. They were also sending EEG results elsewhere for review in case they missed something. A neuro-guy in Minnesota was looking...(evidently there are more neurologists per square mile in MN than anywhere on Earth...who knew?) and he saw nothing.
So the long days in the hospital were wearing on.....late, late nights. Taking my wife home w/o Boesch was a tough day for us. However something was happening...the "posturing" was lessening in frequency. The new goal was to ween him off the anti-seizure med and see what happened. This was a long process as this drug lingers in the system for a long while.
The support of folks in Iowa is amazing. We haven't lived here long. Didn't know a soul when we moved here. But three people volunteered to mow my lawn, a dozen or more people wanted to drop meals off for us, more people were happy to watch our 6-yr old daughter than we could possibly use, and two women who work w/me asked to clean our house. 800+ users checked Boesch's website for updates on his progress. Simply amazing...and thanks out to all of those folks.
The nurses working with Boesch were great. The two Tara's, Pam, Patty, Jody, and several others. Not to forget Stephanie, who became a lifeline for my wife....they clicked and Stephanie's positivity and straight forward manor was great. She and my wife share the same sense of humor..."self-deprecating but while we're at it let's deprecate others to make it even!" Special thanks to Stephanie for making things bearable. (and special thanks to the "way hot Nurse" for just being around...hey I know my kid was in the hospital and my wife was recovering from surgery, but you had to be in a coma to miss this gal)
Eating at the hospital cafeteria was a delight....well...not quite. But it wasn't bad. My wife thought I was certifiably insane for trying the "General Tso's chicken" and the "Chile-lime Tilapia". They were okay...the cheeseburger casserole was not good though.
Boesch is a trooper. The days wore on and he kept getting better. His spinal tap results came back clear. Another EEG was done once the medication was out of his system....it was normal brain activity. Yeay! Suddenly after 14 days we're going home. Amazing. All the worry, all the low moments, all the hugs, all the prayer (our Pastor needs to know when a visit is too long btw! Yeesh)....it all paid off. Boesch is home now. He's pretty darn great. He carved out a spot in our heart just by showing up....however watching him battle through being poked and prodded and hooked to nasty looking machines has made him my little hero. (there were too many milestone moments that we celebrated to recount here, like the moment he came off the vent and could make baby sounds again...the silence was a hard thing to bear over the first week) He still has work to do. Some of his muscle tone is down due to being hooked to the vent for so long and seizure-like activity causes that as well....and there are things we still have to watch for over time...so nobody is kidding themselves that we are totally out of the forest. But the doctors are optimistic and so are we. Everytime he does normal things babies do only re-inforces that optimism. So today we do normal stuff....I'm taking my daughter to the carnival (she was a study in 6-yr old patience during this time as well...she loves her little brother) today and we're taking Boesch for a walk on the walking path with the new stroller (adjustable handle for a guy my height....good buy).... (I've decided not bore you with how strong my wife has been through this...just know, she's awesome and pretty tough)
So that's where I've been the last few weeks...thanks for reading this if you went the distance. I did follow the Tigers at times throughout this...a needed distraction for an hour or two a day. I'm sure I'll contribute here some more (if its a "contribution" LOL)....we'll see how it goes.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Tigers 6 Pirates 2
I was able to watch quite a bit of that ballgame tonight except the final two outs.....its always fun to see the Tigers win....but it also wasn't the prettiest game. No style points in the standings. The Tigers will take it.
I thought the Tigers outfield defense was in fine form tonight. Austin Jackson made a couple of dandy catches and Don Kelly made a nice running grab right at the fence while also pulling a foul ball out of the stands for the third out of the third inning. Even Boesch moves nimbly for guy his size I think.
The first run allowed was probably unneccessary...Justin Verlander had bit of a lazy moment when he easily could have gotten the lead runner who had strayed off base. But he never bothered to look. Now....it may not have mattered since if Iwomura had gotten into a run down long enough the runner at first may have been able to scoot down to second, so the run would have scored on Andrew McCutchen's laser double.
Its kind of funny....Verlander had a two-hitter going for quite a while, but I was not impressed with him tonight. He allowed a lot of scorched flyballs that his outfielders ran down. He walked more than he struck out (4BB/3K) and he allowed twice as many flyouts to groundouts (12/6). What I ended up thinking is that after seeing Stephen Strasburg utterly dominate the rather scared looking Bucs the other night, it was going to be hard for any pitcher to look that good in the days following. That's okay....Verlander doesn't have to be as good as Strasburg...he's just gotta keep pitching well.
Around the minors.....not a great night. Lakeland was idle. Erie got beat 4-0. West Michigan lost 8-3 as Ramon Lebron didn't make it out of the first inning allowing 7 runs. Only Toledo had a good night. They won 8-4. Scott Sizemore continues to do solid work from the leadoff spot. 2-5 w/1 2B, 2 R tonight. Ryan Strieby was "only" 1-5...but he did have a huge three-run homer in the 9th to put his club ahead. He ended up w/4 RBI on the night.
I'm very happy to see that the Tigers have remained patient with Alex Avila and Brandon Inge...they are looking better. Will they keep it up? Dunno...but I think they both can contribute. Avila is a good example of not making too much out of 50 or so at-bats early in the year....its a long season.
Brennen Boesch.....he keeps rolling along. Very impressive. It was very fun to see him emerge in Erie last year and gain his power stroke....and I did expect a short term power boost for the club when he came up in April. But I didn't expect he'd sustain his good play into Mid-June w/o many hiccups. Fingers crossed....keep it up Brennan.
Jeremy Bonderman versus Paul Maholm tomorrow night. If Bonderman can keep McCutchen off the bases its really hard to imagine the Pirates mounting a ton of offense.....we'll have to see if Jose Tabata is in the lineup in the 1-hole tomorrow w/McCutchen sliding down to the three-hole. Tabata gives them another solid looking prospect at the top of the order to deal with. It would be great for the Tigers to get that game tomorrow, secure the series-win, and then go after the bonus of sweeping on Sunday....here's hoping.
I thought the Tigers outfield defense was in fine form tonight. Austin Jackson made a couple of dandy catches and Don Kelly made a nice running grab right at the fence while also pulling a foul ball out of the stands for the third out of the third inning. Even Boesch moves nimbly for guy his size I think.
The first run allowed was probably unneccessary...Justin Verlander had bit of a lazy moment when he easily could have gotten the lead runner who had strayed off base. But he never bothered to look. Now....it may not have mattered since if Iwomura had gotten into a run down long enough the runner at first may have been able to scoot down to second, so the run would have scored on Andrew McCutchen's laser double.
Its kind of funny....Verlander had a two-hitter going for quite a while, but I was not impressed with him tonight. He allowed a lot of scorched flyballs that his outfielders ran down. He walked more than he struck out (4BB/3K) and he allowed twice as many flyouts to groundouts (12/6). What I ended up thinking is that after seeing Stephen Strasburg utterly dominate the rather scared looking Bucs the other night, it was going to be hard for any pitcher to look that good in the days following. That's okay....Verlander doesn't have to be as good as Strasburg...he's just gotta keep pitching well.
Around the minors.....not a great night. Lakeland was idle. Erie got beat 4-0. West Michigan lost 8-3 as Ramon Lebron didn't make it out of the first inning allowing 7 runs. Only Toledo had a good night. They won 8-4. Scott Sizemore continues to do solid work from the leadoff spot. 2-5 w/1 2B, 2 R tonight. Ryan Strieby was "only" 1-5...but he did have a huge three-run homer in the 9th to put his club ahead. He ended up w/4 RBI on the night.
I'm very happy to see that the Tigers have remained patient with Alex Avila and Brandon Inge...they are looking better. Will they keep it up? Dunno...but I think they both can contribute. Avila is a good example of not making too much out of 50 or so at-bats early in the year....its a long season.
Brennen Boesch.....he keeps rolling along. Very impressive. It was very fun to see him emerge in Erie last year and gain his power stroke....and I did expect a short term power boost for the club when he came up in April. But I didn't expect he'd sustain his good play into Mid-June w/o many hiccups. Fingers crossed....keep it up Brennan.
Jeremy Bonderman versus Paul Maholm tomorrow night. If Bonderman can keep McCutchen off the bases its really hard to imagine the Pirates mounting a ton of offense.....we'll have to see if Jose Tabata is in the lineup in the 1-hole tomorrow w/McCutchen sliding down to the three-hole. Tabata gives them another solid looking prospect at the top of the order to deal with. It would be great for the Tigers to get that game tomorrow, secure the series-win, and then go after the bonus of sweeping on Sunday....here's hoping.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
50 Games Down....112 to go
June 1st, 26-24, 2nd place, 4.5 back, 85-win pace
Not bad. About where I figured this crew would be...(I predicted 85 wins for BillyTuttle's list...but had felt they were an 80 to 86 win ballclub all the off-season)
The recent stretch of going 5-8 has put some folks in a funk about where this club is heading. We'll see.....a 6-2 stretch would perk up plenty of folks.
Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer. This season hinged on these three guys more than any others in my opinion. Certainly that has not gone well overall. Some positive moments....but not the steadiness needed to enable the club to exceed expectations thus far. However we now see Scherzer regaining his velocity and, if it continues, that gives him a good chance to compete and post some good starts for the club. Verlander is coming into form. Porcello has looked a bit better at times. Then Bonderman has gotten into a decent rythm. This rotation could do good things this summer with a few breaks.
The bullpen has been relatively solid for two months. Some nights of stellar work including picking up emergency "bullpen games" when Willis was not ready to answer the bell.
Defensively this year the corner outfield play has been poor. The Tigers overall have fallen back to 22nd in Team Defensive Efficiency. But they've been rising a bit of late. We'll see what Guillen's addition to the infield means on a regular basis. (at least until the DL comes calling)
Offensively......a bit sporadic. Better than last season for the most part until the last week or so. Top heavy in the batting order as we know. I think some of the under-performers will play a bit better and inch back to their career norms as happens a lot in baseball. How long will A-Jax/Boesch continue to contribute? That's a bigger question over worrying about Laird/Everett in my opinion.
The Farm is still a work in progress. I coined the farm system to be "craptastic" in '09....but they've come on since then. Much more middle-of-the-road now with some guys coming along and a surprise or two possible like Rawley Bishop. Still, the system is a little light on position talent and a couple of the big arms haven't been ready like Casey Crosby.
The Tigers took a new course last off-season. It was needed and very justified. They have a chance to shed some of the bad Hindenburg Contracts over the next year and install some homegrown talent into the 25-man roster. Its the best way to build a ballclub in my opinion. While I haven't been a full bodied voice behind "the 2012 will be great!" Movement, I get the sentiment behind it. The club almost had a lucky playoff appearance in '09. They missed. But they weren't good enough as consituted to do much more than what we saw last year (in my opinion). Dombrowski hamstrung himself w/lousy contracts....but since he didn't get canned, he has to dig himself out. I think he chose the right course....younger talent has been installed, some more will return that didn't take on the first go-round, and more is coming. Spending flexibility is coming as well...that's a double-edged sword of course, he can't repeat the mistakes of '07/'08....but this has always been, in my mind, a transition year to the chance for something better. They brought in Damon/Valverde to still maintain their shot this season....and that still has a shot to work out.
No, I've enjoyed these 50 games that some seem to be bored with. They are building a younger team on the whole and investing in their organization. Hopefully they will spend their way into a couple of overslot signings to bolster the system in next week's draft as well. They need to identify a young guy or two and pay them out of going to college or to leave college early.....making up for losing the draft choice for signing Valverde (their only highly questionable move of the off-season) is critical to me. They need to keep amassing young talent to move forward with. (keep an eye out for Levon Washington...or Tyrell Jenkins)
We'll know a lot more after game 100....can't wait to see where they're headed then.
Not bad. About where I figured this crew would be...(I predicted 85 wins for BillyTuttle's list...but had felt they were an 80 to 86 win ballclub all the off-season)
The recent stretch of going 5-8 has put some folks in a funk about where this club is heading. We'll see.....a 6-2 stretch would perk up plenty of folks.
Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer. This season hinged on these three guys more than any others in my opinion. Certainly that has not gone well overall. Some positive moments....but not the steadiness needed to enable the club to exceed expectations thus far. However we now see Scherzer regaining his velocity and, if it continues, that gives him a good chance to compete and post some good starts for the club. Verlander is coming into form. Porcello has looked a bit better at times. Then Bonderman has gotten into a decent rythm. This rotation could do good things this summer with a few breaks.
The bullpen has been relatively solid for two months. Some nights of stellar work including picking up emergency "bullpen games" when Willis was not ready to answer the bell.
Defensively this year the corner outfield play has been poor. The Tigers overall have fallen back to 22nd in Team Defensive Efficiency. But they've been rising a bit of late. We'll see what Guillen's addition to the infield means on a regular basis. (at least until the DL comes calling)
Offensively......a bit sporadic. Better than last season for the most part until the last week or so. Top heavy in the batting order as we know. I think some of the under-performers will play a bit better and inch back to their career norms as happens a lot in baseball. How long will A-Jax/Boesch continue to contribute? That's a bigger question over worrying about Laird/Everett in my opinion.
The Farm is still a work in progress. I coined the farm system to be "craptastic" in '09....but they've come on since then. Much more middle-of-the-road now with some guys coming along and a surprise or two possible like Rawley Bishop. Still, the system is a little light on position talent and a couple of the big arms haven't been ready like Casey Crosby.
The Tigers took a new course last off-season. It was needed and very justified. They have a chance to shed some of the bad Hindenburg Contracts over the next year and install some homegrown talent into the 25-man roster. Its the best way to build a ballclub in my opinion. While I haven't been a full bodied voice behind "the 2012 will be great!" Movement, I get the sentiment behind it. The club almost had a lucky playoff appearance in '09. They missed. But they weren't good enough as consituted to do much more than what we saw last year (in my opinion). Dombrowski hamstrung himself w/lousy contracts....but since he didn't get canned, he has to dig himself out. I think he chose the right course....younger talent has been installed, some more will return that didn't take on the first go-round, and more is coming. Spending flexibility is coming as well...that's a double-edged sword of course, he can't repeat the mistakes of '07/'08....but this has always been, in my mind, a transition year to the chance for something better. They brought in Damon/Valverde to still maintain their shot this season....and that still has a shot to work out.
No, I've enjoyed these 50 games that some seem to be bored with. They are building a younger team on the whole and investing in their organization. Hopefully they will spend their way into a couple of overslot signings to bolster the system in next week's draft as well. They need to identify a young guy or two and pay them out of going to college or to leave college early.....making up for losing the draft choice for signing Valverde (their only highly questionable move of the off-season) is critical to me. They need to keep amassing young talent to move forward with. (keep an eye out for Levon Washington...or Tyrell Jenkins)
We'll know a lot more after game 100....can't wait to see where they're headed then.
Re-visiting the "Nate v. Dontrelle" decision....
A few have mentioned how a mistake was made by paying off the Marlins to accept Nate Robertson and keeping Dontrelle.....he has "won" 4 games thus far (against 4 losses) and sports a 4.30 ERA.
That pretty much ends the positives however. He's striking out fewer batters then even his career mark and he's walking more. His groundball percentage is down as well. (For those familiar w/"FIP", that's around 5. This is where his ERA "should" be)
Nate is benefiting from pitching in the weaker league, pitching to pitchers, and pitching in a cavernous park. I'm hopeful he has the appearance of a "good" season as I've always liked Nate very much....and I would have been fine with keeping him for one more spin if the Tigers had gone that route....but I don't miss him much and I don't think he would have held up nearly as well in the American League as he is thus far in the NL. I don't think it was a "mistake" to opt for Dontrelle this Spring. They felt Dontrelle had more of the coveted "upside" if he could harness his stuff....judging by a couple of Dontrelle's solid outings that was probably true...but he just couldn't sustain anything so a move was made.
Getting out from under the morass of poor contracts given out in the '07/'08 timeframe is going to take some time...slowly but surely they whittle away and hopefully DD has changed his approach moving forward.
That pretty much ends the positives however. He's striking out fewer batters then even his career mark and he's walking more. His groundball percentage is down as well. (For those familiar w/"FIP", that's around 5. This is where his ERA "should" be)
Nate is benefiting from pitching in the weaker league, pitching to pitchers, and pitching in a cavernous park. I'm hopeful he has the appearance of a "good" season as I've always liked Nate very much....and I would have been fine with keeping him for one more spin if the Tigers had gone that route....but I don't miss him much and I don't think he would have held up nearly as well in the American League as he is thus far in the NL. I don't think it was a "mistake" to opt for Dontrelle this Spring. They felt Dontrelle had more of the coveted "upside" if he could harness his stuff....judging by a couple of Dontrelle's solid outings that was probably true...but he just couldn't sustain anything so a move was made.
Getting out from under the morass of poor contracts given out in the '07/'08 timeframe is going to take some time...slowly but surely they whittle away and hopefully DD has changed his approach moving forward.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
When Carlos Guillen Returns...
My feelings on the situation? I'm not trying to be "above it all" or dismissive of those who are genuinely worried about the move, but I really don't think it matters much.
What do I think the Tigers will do? While I won't be stunned if Everett or Kelly get DFA'd, I think sending out Worth is their easiest move and that's what they'll do. They don't have to eat any money and they don't risk losing anyone from the organization.
What would I do if I got to make the decision in a bizarro world where bloggers make the choices? I'd try to trade somebody like Raburn but, failing that, I'd send Worth back for the time being. He's played well but its not a permanent move....a long season ahead he'll probably have more chances.
What do I think the Tigers will do? While I won't be stunned if Everett or Kelly get DFA'd, I think sending out Worth is their easiest move and that's what they'll do. They don't have to eat any money and they don't risk losing anyone from the organization.
What would I do if I got to make the decision in a bizarro world where bloggers make the choices? I'd try to trade somebody like Raburn but, failing that, I'd send Worth back for the time being. He's played well but its not a permanent move....a long season ahead he'll probably have more chances.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Dealing for Roy Oswalt?
I'm a fan of Roy Oswalt. He was a terrific pitcher in the middle part of this last decade. He's still a very good pitcher who is off to a hot start this season.
That's all well and good. But I'd be saying "no thanks" to Ed Wade if he called unless the price in prospects was very reasonable.
Oswalt is 32 and would be switching leagues to the tougher loop. The last couple of years, prior to this good stretch he's currently on, there were whispers around that he was losing something and wasn't the guy he was. Which is perfectly natural and happens all the time. Its no death-sentence to be entering your middle-30's....he can still be very good as he's currently showing. But how much do you pay for that? He's making $15M this year, $16M in '11, and has a club option for '12 for another $16M or a $2M buyout. So he's not cheap.....but what would be a fair deal for his services?
First off, I saw some ideas of "Porcello for Oswalt" yesterday. Let's dispense with that madness now....that won't be happening. Dombrowski should be banished to be the Athletic Director of the Louisiana State Penitentiary instead of a MLB GM if he does that.
Second, Houston can expect "premium" prospects all they want....but I have a feeling they won't be getting a power-packed list of names. I'd see something closer to the Jake Peavy Trade package that the Padres got from the White Sox. The Astros have one of baseball's weakest farm systems by general acclimation. They have massive depth problems and they probably should try to find a slew of good players to patch into their system. I think a package including talented but not top shelf Tigers' prospects could get a deal done. Oliver (once he's PTBNL-eligible), Schlereth, Boesch, Marte', Strieby, Wells, Sizemore, Bishop, Furbush, and so on. A reasonable package of players could be assembled from that list. If the prices start going up into the Scherzer, Turner, Crosby range then I'd pass.
I think if the Rangers sale can get done that they would be a logical destination for Oswalt. Oswalt is supposedly tight with the Astros owner....so he'll make sure Roy goes somewhere that he wants to go. Detroit may not even be on the list anyhow. Oswalt has a full no-trade clause, so even though he's requested a trade he can turn down places he wants no part of. The AL West would make by far the most sense if he's going to switch leagues....the weak sister offenses are out there and the Rangers have a shot to contend over the life of his contract. (I still have suspicions that the owner won't approve a deal...he has a hard time letting go of "his guys"....see Biggio/Bagwell)
In the end my opinion is this.....if Roy Oswalt would consider being a Tiger that's great. But he's switching leagues, he's 32, and he's owed a ton of money. I wouldn't want the Tigers to pay thru the teeth for that....they'd be paying for his past exploits in the NL, not what he might do in the AL moving forward from the current day. A reasonable price....nothing more.
That's all well and good. But I'd be saying "no thanks" to Ed Wade if he called unless the price in prospects was very reasonable.
Oswalt is 32 and would be switching leagues to the tougher loop. The last couple of years, prior to this good stretch he's currently on, there were whispers around that he was losing something and wasn't the guy he was. Which is perfectly natural and happens all the time. Its no death-sentence to be entering your middle-30's....he can still be very good as he's currently showing. But how much do you pay for that? He's making $15M this year, $16M in '11, and has a club option for '12 for another $16M or a $2M buyout. So he's not cheap.....but what would be a fair deal for his services?
First off, I saw some ideas of "Porcello for Oswalt" yesterday. Let's dispense with that madness now....that won't be happening. Dombrowski should be banished to be the Athletic Director of the Louisiana State Penitentiary instead of a MLB GM if he does that.
Second, Houston can expect "premium" prospects all they want....but I have a feeling they won't be getting a power-packed list of names. I'd see something closer to the Jake Peavy Trade package that the Padres got from the White Sox. The Astros have one of baseball's weakest farm systems by general acclimation. They have massive depth problems and they probably should try to find a slew of good players to patch into their system. I think a package including talented but not top shelf Tigers' prospects could get a deal done. Oliver (once he's PTBNL-eligible), Schlereth, Boesch, Marte', Strieby, Wells, Sizemore, Bishop, Furbush, and so on. A reasonable package of players could be assembled from that list. If the prices start going up into the Scherzer, Turner, Crosby range then I'd pass.
I think if the Rangers sale can get done that they would be a logical destination for Oswalt. Oswalt is supposedly tight with the Astros owner....so he'll make sure Roy goes somewhere that he wants to go. Detroit may not even be on the list anyhow. Oswalt has a full no-trade clause, so even though he's requested a trade he can turn down places he wants no part of. The AL West would make by far the most sense if he's going to switch leagues....the weak sister offenses are out there and the Rangers have a shot to contend over the life of his contract. (I still have suspicions that the owner won't approve a deal...he has a hard time letting go of "his guys"....see Biggio/Bagwell)
In the end my opinion is this.....if Roy Oswalt would consider being a Tiger that's great. But he's switching leagues, he's 32, and he's owed a ton of money. I wouldn't want the Tigers to pay thru the teeth for that....they'd be paying for his past exploits in the NL, not what he might do in the AL moving forward from the current day. A reasonable price....nothing more.
Friday, May 21, 2010
Boesch
It will be very interesting to see what the next few weeks hold for him....not to mention the next year or two. I alluded to the possibility before he started that he might smack a couple of balls early on in the first 3 or 4 games he plays....but its lasted much longer than that, it would have been tough for anyone to forecast what he's done to this point. Very fun to see and a huge lift to the squad. His progression over the last 18-months has been impressive. He was probably a year or so from the scrap heap with how he was performing in A-ball....but his power came alive last year and he even started raising his OBP late in his Erie season. Now with what we've witnessed this year, he's really on the map.
Nobody knows how long this current streak of power will last....but its a fun wave to ride. I think he has a good shot, at the very least, to be a strong-side platoon guy in a corner outfield spot. He's had a couple of hit versus lefties so far....but that's the part I suspect will struggle in time. I'd also love to see him start taking a few walks as you have to think they'll be pitching him more carefully....but all-out aggression has been a pretty big part of his success thus far...how much should they temper that? That's a big question in my mind.....
Nobody knows how long this current streak of power will last....but its a fun wave to ride. I think he has a good shot, at the very least, to be a strong-side platoon guy in a corner outfield spot. He's had a couple of hit versus lefties so far....but that's the part I suspect will struggle in time. I'd also love to see him start taking a few walks as you have to think they'll be pitching him more carefully....but all-out aggression has been a pretty big part of his success thus far...how much should they temper that? That's a big question in my mind.....
Valverde's transformation?
Still a pretty small sample of 18.2 IP on the season...but its interesting to look at the components of his success thus far.
His K-rate is down 33% from last year. His BB-rate is up 25%. Those two numbers don't compute to more success of course. But there is one thing that does....his Groundball% is WAY up....its up almost 70% over last year. Groundballs help a lot, especially if you're walking more guys than normal.
So it will be fun to see if he remains a different pitcher in the AL then he was in the NL...or if, over the course of a season, his older pitching patterns re-emerge. As long as he keeps finishing off wins I guess it doesn't matter...but if he starts to struggle at all it might be due to some of the numbers above not holding up.
One thing for sure is that Valverde won't be able to maintain his Left-On-Base Percentage of 95.9%....nobody can. He will allow some runs here eventually....everybody does. Hopefully its just timed to the save opps where he has a multi-run lead to protect....luck plays into it a bit.
He's as fun to watch as a remember him from his days in Arizona though....my wife's family are D-Back's fans, so I watched him a few times out there. Its a fun show....
His K-rate is down 33% from last year. His BB-rate is up 25%. Those two numbers don't compute to more success of course. But there is one thing that does....his Groundball% is WAY up....its up almost 70% over last year. Groundballs help a lot, especially if you're walking more guys than normal.
So it will be fun to see if he remains a different pitcher in the AL then he was in the NL...or if, over the course of a season, his older pitching patterns re-emerge. As long as he keeps finishing off wins I guess it doesn't matter...but if he starts to struggle at all it might be due to some of the numbers above not holding up.
One thing for sure is that Valverde won't be able to maintain his Left-On-Base Percentage of 95.9%....nobody can. He will allow some runs here eventually....everybody does. Hopefully its just timed to the save opps where he has a multi-run lead to protect....luck plays into it a bit.
He's as fun to watch as a remember him from his days in Arizona though....my wife's family are D-Back's fans, so I watched him a few times out there. Its a fun show....
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Bonderman
Jeremy Bonderman goes 6 complete innings allowing only 1 ER w/4 K and 0 BB. A really solid outing. Yes, he allowed a few hits but he had to pitch around a couple of errors today that had him face some extra batters to run up the hit total. No matter, it was a good performance and another that he can continue to build from. The 0-walk effort was huge. If you're going to have 3-errors committed behind you and allow 10 hits then you can't issue the free passes.
Eddie Bonine and Fu-Te Ni (alright everybody...join in Gimme me a "Foo!".....gimme a "Tay!"....gimme a "Knee!"....what's it spell?) really did a great job bringing the game home once Bonderman passed the baton. They held the Angels (a lineup that defines "ordinary" btw) in check allowing Johnny Damon the chance to perform his heroics. Don't get me wrong, Damon was the hero of the day, but Bonderman/Bonine/Ni did plenty of the heavy lifting on Saturday.
Hopefully the Tigers break out the broom sticks on Sunday afternoon.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Willis leads Tigers to series win!
I enjoyed listening the Minnesota radio broadcast today and then watching Willis highlights online. Gladden and Gordon were very complimentary of Dontrelle as you can imagine. He was baffling a few batters out there today.
Was it a skeleton lineup for the Twins that Dontrelle was containing? Sure. So what? The guys the Twins had in the lineup were getting paid to play as well and I don't think you have to apologize for winning. Dontrelle was good enough to win today and that's what matters.
I said it after his outing in Anaheim and I'll say it again....Willis just looks like he's a little ticked off out there...he's not looking bewildered like before. Perhaps now that he feels competitive again the juices are flowing. Its fun to watch.
The MLB blackout rules in IA/NV stink, but I have to say I enjoyed listening to radio guys describe Dontrelle's effort. After seeing him in person pitch in KC this year and watching him on the tube again against the Angels, I found it entertaining to hear how radio guys were trying to describe his funky motion and his histrionics on the mound. It sounded like John Gordon was really enjoying watching Willis even though the Twins were losing.
Was it a skeleton lineup for the Twins that Dontrelle was containing? Sure. So what? The guys the Twins had in the lineup were getting paid to play as well and I don't think you have to apologize for winning. Dontrelle was good enough to win today and that's what matters.
I said it after his outing in Anaheim and I'll say it again....Willis just looks like he's a little ticked off out there...he's not looking bewildered like before. Perhaps now that he feels competitive again the juices are flowing. Its fun to watch.
The MLB blackout rules in IA/NV stink, but I have to say I enjoyed listening to radio guys describe Dontrelle's effort. After seeing him in person pitch in KC this year and watching him on the tube again against the Angels, I found it entertaining to hear how radio guys were trying to describe his funky motion and his histrionics on the mound. It sounded like John Gordon was really enjoying watching Willis even though the Twins were losing.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Looooooong Gone!
Well....that was a nice ending to a ballgame. The Rangers put their young flamethrower into the game, Neftali Feliz, and his stuff gets beaten around like Pony League mop up pitcher.
Miguel Cabrera goes deep into the right-center for a mammoth opposite field shot. Impressive power. I could riff on that for a while....but suffice it to say, that guy is good and I'm glad he's on our side.
Brandon Inge has been a doubles maching this year and he indeed banged out his 9th tonight. But it was his two homers that played a key role in the outcome...both homers extended a lead and really put the club in good position to win.
A few words on Jeremy Bonderman....I thought he was good. He had allowed two runs through 5 IP and then retired the first two batters in the 6th. However he ran into trouble from there when Hamilton and Vlad both singled and then David Murphy ripped a two-run double. No matter...tonight's start was pretty solid for Bonderman despite allowing 4 ER over 5.2 IP. He had good command and generated more groundball than he had been. This is a start he can build off going forward.
Bring on those Twins....they are resting in Detroit tonight while the Tigers fly home tonight...but that's okay, its a big series and I think they'll be ready to rumble this week.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Great comeback....tough loss
Great 2-out rally in the 9th last night...that was very fun obviously and even better to do it against a guy throwing All-World Gas like Neftali Feliz.
But a couple of walks in the bottom half of the inning soured the whole experience. Ni and Perry are a couple of young guys still feeling their way....these things are going to happen.
Elvis Andrus wins the ballgame on "Elvis Night" at the ballpark in TX. Apropos I suppose. (in fact I missed Boesch's first MLB hit last night because the stupid Texas TV broadcast had some numbnut TV guy dressed up like Elvis interviewing former Ranger Jim Sundberg for some upcoming promotion....that ticked me off! LOL)
I thought Max Scherzer looked pretty good overall. He couldn't solve Vladimir Guerrero all night and that cost him...but he went 7 IP, allowing only 5 hits, 2 walks, and struck out 7. That's a solid outing. The obscure error by Avila hurt....he broke a rule (its a dumb rule...but what can you do?) and the Tigers paid a price. I had just seen another catcher do that on some MLBN highlights about a week ago.
Neftali Feliz gets one of my favorite statistical oddities....he gets credit for a Blown Save and he gets credit for "the Win". HA! Another further discredit to "Wins" having much meaning for judging pitchers.
Another installment of "The Dontrelle Chronicles" tonight....should be fun, it always is to me. Its like the baseball equivalent of a high-wire act in some ways. He stayed on the wire nicely in his last outing....can he do it again? The Tigers have lit up Scott Feldman like Independence Day Fireworks in the past....let's hope for that tonight. It would be interesting to see what Dontrelle could with a lead for once.
But a couple of walks in the bottom half of the inning soured the whole experience. Ni and Perry are a couple of young guys still feeling their way....these things are going to happen.
Elvis Andrus wins the ballgame on "Elvis Night" at the ballpark in TX. Apropos I suppose. (in fact I missed Boesch's first MLB hit last night because the stupid Texas TV broadcast had some numbnut TV guy dressed up like Elvis interviewing former Ranger Jim Sundberg for some upcoming promotion....that ticked me off! LOL)
I thought Max Scherzer looked pretty good overall. He couldn't solve Vladimir Guerrero all night and that cost him...but he went 7 IP, allowing only 5 hits, 2 walks, and struck out 7. That's a solid outing. The obscure error by Avila hurt....he broke a rule (its a dumb rule...but what can you do?) and the Tigers paid a price. I had just seen another catcher do that on some MLBN highlights about a week ago.
Neftali Feliz gets one of my favorite statistical oddities....he gets credit for a Blown Save and he gets credit for "the Win". HA! Another further discredit to "Wins" having much meaning for judging pitchers.
Another installment of "The Dontrelle Chronicles" tonight....should be fun, it always is to me. Its like the baseball equivalent of a high-wire act in some ways. He stayed on the wire nicely in his last outing....can he do it again? The Tigers have lit up Scott Feldman like Independence Day Fireworks in the past....let's hope for that tonight. It would be interesting to see what Dontrelle could with a lead for once.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Comeback in Anaheim
Certainly last night's win in Anaheim had several "heroes"....Cabrera, Kelly, Santiago, the bullpen, among others. But Jeremy Bonderman got the job done. Merely a quality start when its all said and done.....but he allowed 3 runs in the first inning and didn't look good doing it. It could have been a short night. However Bonderman did not throw in the towel. He competed.....a sign of being a pro, no longer the impetuous kid. I was very happy for him last night to log those final five innings. Great work. Its debatable how his stuff is faring and maybe the end is nearer than everyone hopes for Bonderman....but last night was gutsy, nobody can take that away from him.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
By the book
Bases loaded...Royals up two runs...7th inning....2-out....Miguel Cabrera due up. What do you do? If you're Trey Hillman you can either A) Bring in The Mexicutioner, Joakim Soria to quell the uprising because the game is obviously in the balance. Or B) You can bring in anybody else from the bullpen that has shown nothing but incompetence thus far.
Hillman predictably chose "B". Thank you sir. Juan Cruz shrinks away from pitching to Cabrera and Carlos Guillen lights him up with the game winning double.
The Royals are not a good baseball team. They are lucky to be in position in the late innings perhaps 3 times per week on average. Some of those opportunities will include times when they don't need Soria for a save opportunity. All too often Soria ends up pitching an inning in blowouts to "get his work in". Today was TRULY a spot where his skill level could have turned the tide in that ballgame. Juan Cruz is not as good as Joakim Soria....on nearly any day of the season.
Of course Cabrera could have gotten to Soria for the second time in a week....but if you're Trey Hillman I think you gotta go for it there w/your best guy against Cabrera/Guillen. "Saving" Soria for the 9th didn't help the Royales very much today.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Game 5 Impressions - Tigers 4 Tribe 2
Sat out in the RF Grandstand seats yesterday. Took the whole family plus my 20 yr old daughter's boy friend - who had never been to professional baseball game. He's football guy - and had lots of questions about how far everything was from each other - like the bases are 90 feet apart - so that means 30 yrd sprints for baserunners and the all the way around the bags is the length of a football field from the back of each end zone to end zone. I'm not sure if he came away impressed with baseball or not - but I didn't come away impressed with ... nevermind...
The Chinese New Year pregame party was... bizarre. It was 15 minutes - and it felt like it went on for two hours with same song just blaring in our ears. My kids wanted to see a battle between the two different Tae Chi clans - but it didn't happen. I'm sure the Chinese in attendance appreciated Paws getting into the Tae Chi act. The best part was seeing Mags trying to warm up and do his sprints around the dragon dance guys.
OK the game - Bonderman was terrific. He was completely in command against a Tribe lineup that includes several tough LH sticks, so that was great to see. He ran into some trouble with the 3-5 in the 4th, but limited the damage and finished strong. Velocity was good, and changing speeds produced several bad swings. Couldn't have asked for anything better from him for a first start of a new season.
The bullpen set up nicely behind him, and Leyland pulled all the right strings. Having three lefties in the pen is really going to be huge against teams like the Yankees and Twins this year. Perry has taken his game to another level so far. This pen has a chance to be a mid70s% pen at protecting leads like it was in 2006.
Avila did a nice job blocking pitches and calling the game. He had a good all around game reaching base three times as well.
Mags aggressively turning on fastballs again is a great sight to see.
We had two Inge Haters sitting in front of us that were silenced by his sterling two way performance (three times reaching base and his typical game changing defense). One of the main differnces between the Tigers and the Tribe is - the Tigers have a 3b that turns hits into outs and the Tribe has a 3b that turns outs into hits.
Sizemore had three positive ABs (only got a Sac Fly RBI to show for it) and was solid in the field again. Jackson stung the ball a couple times early in the game, but came away with an 0-5 with 2 Ks. Jackson is now at 1 W - 8 Ks for the season. It won't surprise me if Sizemore eventually takes the lead off slot this year with Jackson moving down in the lineup. Jackson is showing tremendous raw hitting talent - so far this year (very impressed with ability to hit to the opp field gap) - but he's not really a contact hitter - and his his W to K ratio is going to have to improve to stay in the lead off position. No surprise Sizemore is showing more htting competency and bat control - though the hits are not falling for him yet.
35K for the 2nd game of the season - nice. If fans are disappointed by the off-season or the direction of this team, you wouldn't know it by the 80K they've pushed through the turnstyles so far. Great crowd - great weather - well pitched and played game by the home team. Pitching and defense. This team has been all about it so far, and the results couldn't be much better. So far, the Tigers and Twins look to be the class the AL Central - again.
The Chinese New Year pregame party was... bizarre. It was 15 minutes - and it felt like it went on for two hours with same song just blaring in our ears. My kids wanted to see a battle between the two different Tae Chi clans - but it didn't happen. I'm sure the Chinese in attendance appreciated Paws getting into the Tae Chi act. The best part was seeing Mags trying to warm up and do his sprints around the dragon dance guys.
OK the game - Bonderman was terrific. He was completely in command against a Tribe lineup that includes several tough LH sticks, so that was great to see. He ran into some trouble with the 3-5 in the 4th, but limited the damage and finished strong. Velocity was good, and changing speeds produced several bad swings. Couldn't have asked for anything better from him for a first start of a new season.
The bullpen set up nicely behind him, and Leyland pulled all the right strings. Having three lefties in the pen is really going to be huge against teams like the Yankees and Twins this year. Perry has taken his game to another level so far. This pen has a chance to be a mid70s% pen at protecting leads like it was in 2006.
Avila did a nice job blocking pitches and calling the game. He had a good all around game reaching base three times as well.
Mags aggressively turning on fastballs again is a great sight to see.
We had two Inge Haters sitting in front of us that were silenced by his sterling two way performance (three times reaching base and his typical game changing defense). One of the main differnces between the Tigers and the Tribe is - the Tigers have a 3b that turns hits into outs and the Tribe has a 3b that turns outs into hits.
Sizemore had three positive ABs (only got a Sac Fly RBI to show for it) and was solid in the field again. Jackson stung the ball a couple times early in the game, but came away with an 0-5 with 2 Ks. Jackson is now at 1 W - 8 Ks for the season. It won't surprise me if Sizemore eventually takes the lead off slot this year with Jackson moving down in the lineup. Jackson is showing tremendous raw hitting talent - so far this year (very impressed with ability to hit to the opp field gap) - but he's not really a contact hitter - and his his W to K ratio is going to have to improve to stay in the lead off position. No surprise Sizemore is showing more htting competency and bat control - though the hits are not falling for him yet.
35K for the 2nd game of the season - nice. If fans are disappointed by the off-season or the direction of this team, you wouldn't know it by the 80K they've pushed through the turnstyles so far. Great crowd - great weather - well pitched and played game by the home team. Pitching and defense. This team has been all about it so far, and the results couldn't be much better. So far, the Tigers and Twins look to be the class the AL Central - again.
Saturday, April 10, 2010
A new hope....
Jacob Turner made his debut in West Michigan today. Not bad....5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 7 K, 0 BB......now THAT'S a debut!
Thursday, April 8, 2010
28 Hours in Kansas City
Hit the road around 8:45am on Wednesday morning and had a quiet ride to Kansas City w/one stop in scenic Lamoni, IA. (Lamoni means "blink and you'll miss it" in some Native American language I imagine) Rolled into KC just before noon, hit some construction on the bridge over the Missouri River. Found my way over to the ballpark and bought a ticket and a few things for the kid at the souvenir shop.
Went to the hotel across the street and got a room. Hooked up the computer to the WiFi to check email....three minutes later the screen lights up like a Christmas Tree with virus warnings...everything is shutting down and the only thing is a link to pay for a "Security Upgrade"...yeah right. Luckily I saw a joint called "KC Help Desk" a couple of blocks away. They have been seeing this virus a lot...so the computer was spending the night w/them and spending some of my money to get it fixed. Oh well....
Met Tom Gage at Subway near the stadium. Had a very nice conversation for about a half-hour talking about the Tigers, travel, and whatever else. Great guy. He had to get to the stadium just after 3pm for a 7:10pm ballgame...
Took a ride downtown to check out The Power&Light District. Looked like a fun place w/lots of shops, bars, and eateries. Had a latte' and walked briefly. All afternoon the weather was great...breezy but sunny. Things were due to change.
Walked from the hotel to the ballpark at around 5:30pm. Saw plenty of Tigers fans...good representation. Jerseys spotted: Inge, Sheff, Monroe, Gibby, Cabrera, Verlander, Lolich...maybe a couple of others.
Strong wind blowing in from LF and the temps were dropping fast. I watched a lot of BP and nobody hit one out to LF. Also watched Valverde in the bullpen popping the mitt.
At 6:30pm I met up with a fellow poster at the Detroit News Tigers Forum that goes by the name "Kevets" near the George Brett statue on the RF plaza. Had a beer and talked about the club...ended up watching the game together. Kevets is a great guy to watch a game with. Hope to do it again sometime.
The rain started just before the first pitch. We went up to the seats under the upper deck to avoid the rain. Most folks did in the modest crowd of Royals fans as well.
I really enjoyed watching Max Scherzer. He had nice velocity and was "effectively wild"....I had no problems with him plunking a couple of batters to keep them on their toes. (of course if he'd allowed a few runs he'd have just been "wild" and not effectively so) Scherzer is lankier in person than I've thought he's looked on TV. The Mad Max highlight of the night was when he struck out DeJesus w/the bases juiced. DeJesus was ticked and Max was PUMPED UP walking off the mound....great emotion, very cool to see.
Luke Hochevar was on his game. It was a perfect night for a guy w/a sinker like him. Nothing airborne was going anywhere in the wet and cold wind. The Tigers hit a couple of hard liners by Inge but they were right at outfielders. (I thought Inge was swinging the bat very well both days)
Joakim Soria came in to protect the lead and fanned the first three batters he faced before locking horns with Miguel Cabrera. He had two strikes and Miguel fouled off several pitches (we had moved down to seats by the dugout several innings prior to this when the rain stopped btw, so we were right near the action). Then Cabrera finally launched that fly down the line...it was tough to see it hit the foul pole and the fans were in disbelief for their Royals after having victory in hand and Soria blowing folks away. When Cabrera hit the ball it went so high it didn't look at first like it would go the distance...(looking on ESPN later it doesn't appear on camera to go even close to the high trajectory it was on...TV distorts that)
Coke pitched pretty well and then the Tigers got the lead off of Farnsworth. I didn't care for starting the runners at all and Farnsworth smelled it out to quell the rally. Farnsworth is so hit-able I just didn't see the need to play games and start runners. Maybe the Tigers wouldn't have scored anyhow...but we'll never know.
Then Valverde came in....and it was over fast. Three batters...three hard hit balls...two runs....ballgame. Sizemore had the error but it didn't matter...it would have been 2nd/3rd w/0-out...with Valverde getting pelted mercilessly the game was circling the drain, Valverde wasn't going to pitch out of that.
So that was that....shook hand w/Kevets as he went off to find the person who was picking him up and I walked back to the hotel. Day one done.
Day Two. Got up around 7:20am. Took a walk around Arrowhead Stadium and The K. Went to Denny's for pancakes. Checked out of the hotel. Picked up the computer from the help desk shop. Running fast now. (Good work KC Help Desk!) Headed over to the ballpark. Had some ribs at the BBQ joint in the stadium. Solid but unremarkable...I didn't get to head to Arthur Bryant's BBQ on this trip...its KC's legendary Rib-joint. Had it last year...it was awesome.
I watched Dontrelle Willis warm up and chatted with a Tigers' fan from Grand Rapids, MI. He was in town for the whole series visiting his daughter. Dontrelle was missing low a lot in the bullpen but looked okay. He wears Air Jordans. Watching Dontrelle pitch today was fun. He wasn't great and he only cracked 90/91 a few times. But he competed and he stayed alive. The DP's were HUGE and I don't know how often you can rely on those to bail you out. However only a few of the hits off of him were really squared up by the Royals and he only walked a couple (which amazed me after he opened the festivities with a 4-pitch walk). Austin Jackson made a nice running catch in CF against Billy Butler to help out D-Train as well. It will be fun to see if Dontrelle can walk the tightrope against a better lineup than the Royals'. But, hey, he got it done today. I watched him from right behind homeplate in about the 9th row.
Magglio's homer was hit well and the guy is swinging a nice bat right now. Impressive. Inge as well. Jackson has an athletic presence...his swing might be a tad long but he has some bat speed. Damon didn't look great but he drew a nice walk to lead off the first three run inning today.
By the 8th inning I had moved down into rightfield because I was parked near that exit. It was fortuitous because I was only about 40 feet from where Cabrera hit his homer into the Royals' bullpen. It looked like it may have skipped off the top of the fence but if it didn't it could not have cleared the fence by any more than an inch. The wind helped that drive a good bit. Great moment. Royals fans were yelling at DeJesus for not making a better effort to leap for that ball.
Ryan Perry didn't look good at the start but he limited the damage to a run, so give him a mulligan. The next three run rally sewed up the game....and I was out of there....I figured Valverde could wrap things up. This did give me a chance to listen to HOF announcer Denny Matthews on KC radio. He's their Ernie in KC. He's good...not as good as Ernie, but very listenable.
I also listened to Trey Hillman after the game. I will be stunned if he's still on the job managing KC by Memorial Day. He sounded defensive and frustrated. He blamed their weak bullpen on the payroll league wide (never mind there are plenty of decent bullpens built on the cheap elsewhere) and he said he expected media nit-picking to start. He's toast....
The funniest thing was listening to a radio guy who follows the club talk about not even knowing who Luis Mendoza was as he was blowing the lead for KC today. The guy hadn't heard the Royals picked him up from the Rangers for cash last Friday. Too funny...he was lamenting about how weak the bullpen was when some long-haired dude you'd never heard of was trying to get them thru the 8th inning with a lead.
So.....a good trip to KC. Almost saw two wins...froze on Wednesday, enjoyed the sun on Thursday. A couple of homers, a couple of good starts by the rotation, a couple of 101-mph heaters from Zumaya, some good work by Austin Jackson, a ninth-inning game-saving homer followed by another late-inning rally the next day. Yes, a blown save...but you can't have everything. A good start to the season...but the Royals are pretty bad outside a couple of players like Greinke, Hochevar, Soria, and Butler...bigger tests will be coming soon.
Went to the hotel across the street and got a room. Hooked up the computer to the WiFi to check email....three minutes later the screen lights up like a Christmas Tree with virus warnings...everything is shutting down and the only thing is a link to pay for a "Security Upgrade"...yeah right. Luckily I saw a joint called "KC Help Desk" a couple of blocks away. They have been seeing this virus a lot...so the computer was spending the night w/them and spending some of my money to get it fixed. Oh well....
Met Tom Gage at Subway near the stadium. Had a very nice conversation for about a half-hour talking about the Tigers, travel, and whatever else. Great guy. He had to get to the stadium just after 3pm for a 7:10pm ballgame...
Took a ride downtown to check out The Power&Light District. Looked like a fun place w/lots of shops, bars, and eateries. Had a latte' and walked briefly. All afternoon the weather was great...breezy but sunny. Things were due to change.
Walked from the hotel to the ballpark at around 5:30pm. Saw plenty of Tigers fans...good representation. Jerseys spotted: Inge, Sheff, Monroe, Gibby, Cabrera, Verlander, Lolich...maybe a couple of others.
Strong wind blowing in from LF and the temps were dropping fast. I watched a lot of BP and nobody hit one out to LF. Also watched Valverde in the bullpen popping the mitt.
At 6:30pm I met up with a fellow poster at the Detroit News Tigers Forum that goes by the name "Kevets" near the George Brett statue on the RF plaza. Had a beer and talked about the club...ended up watching the game together. Kevets is a great guy to watch a game with. Hope to do it again sometime.
The rain started just before the first pitch. We went up to the seats under the upper deck to avoid the rain. Most folks did in the modest crowd of Royals fans as well.
I really enjoyed watching Max Scherzer. He had nice velocity and was "effectively wild"....I had no problems with him plunking a couple of batters to keep them on their toes. (of course if he'd allowed a few runs he'd have just been "wild" and not effectively so) Scherzer is lankier in person than I've thought he's looked on TV. The Mad Max highlight of the night was when he struck out DeJesus w/the bases juiced. DeJesus was ticked and Max was PUMPED UP walking off the mound....great emotion, very cool to see.
Luke Hochevar was on his game. It was a perfect night for a guy w/a sinker like him. Nothing airborne was going anywhere in the wet and cold wind. The Tigers hit a couple of hard liners by Inge but they were right at outfielders. (I thought Inge was swinging the bat very well both days)
Joakim Soria came in to protect the lead and fanned the first three batters he faced before locking horns with Miguel Cabrera. He had two strikes and Miguel fouled off several pitches (we had moved down to seats by the dugout several innings prior to this when the rain stopped btw, so we were right near the action). Then Cabrera finally launched that fly down the line...it was tough to see it hit the foul pole and the fans were in disbelief for their Royals after having victory in hand and Soria blowing folks away. When Cabrera hit the ball it went so high it didn't look at first like it would go the distance...(looking on ESPN later it doesn't appear on camera to go even close to the high trajectory it was on...TV distorts that)
Coke pitched pretty well and then the Tigers got the lead off of Farnsworth. I didn't care for starting the runners at all and Farnsworth smelled it out to quell the rally. Farnsworth is so hit-able I just didn't see the need to play games and start runners. Maybe the Tigers wouldn't have scored anyhow...but we'll never know.
Then Valverde came in....and it was over fast. Three batters...three hard hit balls...two runs....ballgame. Sizemore had the error but it didn't matter...it would have been 2nd/3rd w/0-out...with Valverde getting pelted mercilessly the game was circling the drain, Valverde wasn't going to pitch out of that.
So that was that....shook hand w/Kevets as he went off to find the person who was picking him up and I walked back to the hotel. Day one done.
Day Two. Got up around 7:20am. Took a walk around Arrowhead Stadium and The K. Went to Denny's for pancakes. Checked out of the hotel. Picked up the computer from the help desk shop. Running fast now. (Good work KC Help Desk!) Headed over to the ballpark. Had some ribs at the BBQ joint in the stadium. Solid but unremarkable...I didn't get to head to Arthur Bryant's BBQ on this trip...its KC's legendary Rib-joint. Had it last year...it was awesome.
I watched Dontrelle Willis warm up and chatted with a Tigers' fan from Grand Rapids, MI. He was in town for the whole series visiting his daughter. Dontrelle was missing low a lot in the bullpen but looked okay. He wears Air Jordans. Watching Dontrelle pitch today was fun. He wasn't great and he only cracked 90/91 a few times. But he competed and he stayed alive. The DP's were HUGE and I don't know how often you can rely on those to bail you out. However only a few of the hits off of him were really squared up by the Royals and he only walked a couple (which amazed me after he opened the festivities with a 4-pitch walk). Austin Jackson made a nice running catch in CF against Billy Butler to help out D-Train as well. It will be fun to see if Dontrelle can walk the tightrope against a better lineup than the Royals'. But, hey, he got it done today. I watched him from right behind homeplate in about the 9th row.
Magglio's homer was hit well and the guy is swinging a nice bat right now. Impressive. Inge as well. Jackson has an athletic presence...his swing might be a tad long but he has some bat speed. Damon didn't look great but he drew a nice walk to lead off the first three run inning today.
By the 8th inning I had moved down into rightfield because I was parked near that exit. It was fortuitous because I was only about 40 feet from where Cabrera hit his homer into the Royals' bullpen. It looked like it may have skipped off the top of the fence but if it didn't it could not have cleared the fence by any more than an inch. The wind helped that drive a good bit. Great moment. Royals fans were yelling at DeJesus for not making a better effort to leap for that ball.
Ryan Perry didn't look good at the start but he limited the damage to a run, so give him a mulligan. The next three run rally sewed up the game....and I was out of there....I figured Valverde could wrap things up. This did give me a chance to listen to HOF announcer Denny Matthews on KC radio. He's their Ernie in KC. He's good...not as good as Ernie, but very listenable.
I also listened to Trey Hillman after the game. I will be stunned if he's still on the job managing KC by Memorial Day. He sounded defensive and frustrated. He blamed their weak bullpen on the payroll league wide (never mind there are plenty of decent bullpens built on the cheap elsewhere) and he said he expected media nit-picking to start. He's toast....
The funniest thing was listening to a radio guy who follows the club talk about not even knowing who Luis Mendoza was as he was blowing the lead for KC today. The guy hadn't heard the Royals picked him up from the Rangers for cash last Friday. Too funny...he was lamenting about how weak the bullpen was when some long-haired dude you'd never heard of was trying to get them thru the 8th inning with a lead.
So.....a good trip to KC. Almost saw two wins...froze on Wednesday, enjoyed the sun on Thursday. A couple of homers, a couple of good starts by the rotation, a couple of 101-mph heaters from Zumaya, some good work by Austin Jackson, a ninth-inning game-saving homer followed by another late-inning rally the next day. Yes, a blown save...but you can't have everything. A good start to the season...but the Royals are pretty bad outside a couple of players like Greinke, Hochevar, Soria, and Butler...bigger tests will be coming soon.
Game 2 - KC 3 Det 2 - Game Impressions
When Cabrera got picked off 2nd base, I had a pretty bad feeling...
Crazy Game. We saw a lot.
Sounds like Scherzer was outstanding. I have to say "sounds like" because some goofy intramural club sport was on Fox Sports Detroit for much of the night instead. Isn't baseball supposed to be "America's" pasttime?
We've seen plenty to like in Austin Jackson so far this spring, and he showed some real long term potential for forward steps in the plate patience department in Lakeland. But what happens in Lakeland stays in Lakeland. Yesterday, in contact hitting situations where he needed to lay off bad pitches and put the ball in play, he looked pretty bad. 0 Walks and 4 Ks in the first two games. An at bat where he was up 2-0 with a runner on third and less than 2 outs and swung wildly at 3 straight balls? Let's hope that doesn't continue.
Scott Sizemore picked up his first dreaded "E" for the year when the ball slipped out of his hands on a cut 4 allowing the winning run to score (of course Jose Valverde giving up rockets to three straight batters probably did much more to cost us the game than the ball slipping out of Sizemore's throwing hand). I don't think I've ever seen two goofy situation cut 4 plays like that in extra innings (combined with Podsednik just throwing to the cutoff man instead of through the cut off man when Kelly scored).
We also saw that the Tigers lefties in the pen are going to have to be counted on to get some RH hitters out - probably - since Leyland is going to save Bonine for long relief situations. They all did OK yesterday though Ni was shaky.
The story of the offense until the Cabrera HR was - Damon, Mags, Cabrera, and Guillen all doing nothing on the same night - which is never going to be good for this team. Cabrera's HR was a story in itself though - unbelievable at bat off Soria. That's why he's a franchise player. Then his getting picked off 2nd base in the 11th is why is he's a franchise player that makes us shake our heads sometimes.
So the rookies have to rebound from their first little taste of big league failure - Valverde has to put a rough start as closer for his new team behind him quickly - and Leyland has to give the ball to Dontrelle Willis today with the Tigers hoping to come home for opening day 2-1 and in first place - not 1-2 and thinking about at least one game that they let get away.
Today should be interesting.
Crazy Game. We saw a lot.
Sounds like Scherzer was outstanding. I have to say "sounds like" because some goofy intramural club sport was on Fox Sports Detroit for much of the night instead. Isn't baseball supposed to be "America's" pasttime?
We've seen plenty to like in Austin Jackson so far this spring, and he showed some real long term potential for forward steps in the plate patience department in Lakeland. But what happens in Lakeland stays in Lakeland. Yesterday, in contact hitting situations where he needed to lay off bad pitches and put the ball in play, he looked pretty bad. 0 Walks and 4 Ks in the first two games. An at bat where he was up 2-0 with a runner on third and less than 2 outs and swung wildly at 3 straight balls? Let's hope that doesn't continue.
Scott Sizemore picked up his first dreaded "E" for the year when the ball slipped out of his hands on a cut 4 allowing the winning run to score (of course Jose Valverde giving up rockets to three straight batters probably did much more to cost us the game than the ball slipping out of Sizemore's throwing hand). I don't think I've ever seen two goofy situation cut 4 plays like that in extra innings (combined with Podsednik just throwing to the cutoff man instead of through the cut off man when Kelly scored).
We also saw that the Tigers lefties in the pen are going to have to be counted on to get some RH hitters out - probably - since Leyland is going to save Bonine for long relief situations. They all did OK yesterday though Ni was shaky.
The story of the offense until the Cabrera HR was - Damon, Mags, Cabrera, and Guillen all doing nothing on the same night - which is never going to be good for this team. Cabrera's HR was a story in itself though - unbelievable at bat off Soria. That's why he's a franchise player. Then his getting picked off 2nd base in the 11th is why is he's a franchise player that makes us shake our heads sometimes.
So the rookies have to rebound from their first little taste of big league failure - Valverde has to put a rough start as closer for his new team behind him quickly - and Leyland has to give the ball to Dontrelle Willis today with the Tigers hoping to come home for opening day 2-1 and in first place - not 1-2 and thinking about at least one game that they let get away.
Today should be interesting.
Monday, April 5, 2010
A Good Start
Trailing Zack Greinke in the middle innings isn't the most enviable spot to be in but the Royals' bullpen is a magic elixir to what ailed the Tigers today. They did a fair job against Greinke and eeked out a couple of runs, but it was a walk by Scott Sizemore against Robinson Tejada that opened the floodgates to a big rally that put this game away for the Tigers.
Great bullpen work followed up a fair outing by Justin Verlander. Joel Zumaya and Ryan Perry were throwing BB's out there today and if we're going to see plenty of that kind of stuff this year its going to be a good year. (let's see it against another club besides the toothless Royals)
Miguel Cabrera came to play ball today. Stellar in the field and solid at the plate, he set the tone in some respects for the Tigers. If Cabrera wasn't the tone-setter then Johnny Damon was a good candidate today for the designation as well. I've been very excited to see what kind of dimension Damon may add to the top of the order..well...today was nice first step.
Even with Justin Verlander pitching its always a bit of bonus to walk off the field victorious on a day when Zack Greinke is pitching well. 161 to go.
Keys for the 2010 Tigers
Keys on offense: Damon, Mags, and Guillen - The Tigers will go as far offensively as the old dudes can carry them. Damon and Mags looked terrific right now. Guillen creaky. Ryan Raburn can help pick up the slack coming off the bench for support as well, but the Tigers offense can rebound in a big way if those three guys perform to their career standards.
Keys to the starting pitching: Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer - All eyes were on the back end of the rotation throughout the spring to see who would make the team, but now eyes need to focus on the big guns. First and foremost - the Tigers cannot be any good if Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer aren't as good as they were last year. At least, two of those three have to have big years for this team to contend. You worry about the 09 workload on Verlander having an ill effect this year. You worry about Porcello's still tender age and avoiding a sophomore slump. You worry about Scherzer switching leagues and improving his performance versus left hand hitters which he'll see plenty of from American League contenders. On the positive side, the Tigers almost can't help but get more support from the back end of the rotation than they did last year.
Keys on defense: Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore. If they play like they did this spring, the Tigers will be just fine defensively. Up the middle defense was a strength of the team for most of last year (although in the last month Granderson had a few high profile uncharacteristic miscues and Polanco couldn't keep a ball not hit right at him in the infield). The left side of the infield will be a strength again - as will catching with Laird controlling the other teams running game. If Jackson makes the seamless transition that people expect from him defensively in CF and Sizemore continues to play like he did in spring training, defense will again be an overall team strength for the Tigers.
Keys to the Bullpen - Ryan Perry and Joel Zumaya. The Tigers bullpen should be good. Valverde solidifies the back end; and in front of him, the Tigers have RHs that get RHs out and LHs that get LHs out - so Leyland should be able to mix and match well. In Perry and Zumaya though, the Tigers bullpen has a chance to go from good to great, if these guys can live up to their potential as dominant set ups v RH or LH pitching. The Tigers should get back to having a pen that protects leads at 70% or better (after last years set up shakiness had them at 63%), and it could be mid70s type pen if everything falls into place. That could mean 2-4 wins in the win column.
At the end of the day, I'm most worried about the starting pitching. Verlander has been mostly terrific in the last four years, but his 08 showed he's capable of a clunker season if he's not 100% right physically. Coming back strong from last years heavy work load on him will be a test for him. Porcello's talent is almost unfathomable - how can a kid this young be this good? Few 21 yr olds in baseball carry as big of a burden as he does, but he seems to have the shoulders for it. Incredible. It worries me having two RH pitchers in Scherzer and Bonderman who struggle to get LH hitters out in a division where contenders the Twins and Tribe send up some of the games best LH hitters. The Tigers pitching should be bad news head to head for the White Sox all right handed line up though. I was pretty confident that at least one of the four Tigers reclamation projects would rebound this year, but since they decided to just give Nate Robertson away to boost the confidence of Willis and Bonderman - my confidence in that group has been slashed by 25-33%. I don't rule out Galarraga contributing at some point though, and I like what I see from Willis and Bonderman enough to think we're going to get more from the back end of the rotation than we did last year.
In short, I think the offense will be better if the old dudes hold up - the defense will be mostly solid again - and the bully should be better and could be a real strength. If the Tigers get starting pitching, I think they'll be right there with the Twins to the end in the division again.
Keys to the starting pitching: Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer - All eyes were on the back end of the rotation throughout the spring to see who would make the team, but now eyes need to focus on the big guns. First and foremost - the Tigers cannot be any good if Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer aren't as good as they were last year. At least, two of those three have to have big years for this team to contend. You worry about the 09 workload on Verlander having an ill effect this year. You worry about Porcello's still tender age and avoiding a sophomore slump. You worry about Scherzer switching leagues and improving his performance versus left hand hitters which he'll see plenty of from American League contenders. On the positive side, the Tigers almost can't help but get more support from the back end of the rotation than they did last year.
Keys on defense: Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore. If they play like they did this spring, the Tigers will be just fine defensively. Up the middle defense was a strength of the team for most of last year (although in the last month Granderson had a few high profile uncharacteristic miscues and Polanco couldn't keep a ball not hit right at him in the infield). The left side of the infield will be a strength again - as will catching with Laird controlling the other teams running game. If Jackson makes the seamless transition that people expect from him defensively in CF and Sizemore continues to play like he did in spring training, defense will again be an overall team strength for the Tigers.
Keys to the Bullpen - Ryan Perry and Joel Zumaya. The Tigers bullpen should be good. Valverde solidifies the back end; and in front of him, the Tigers have RHs that get RHs out and LHs that get LHs out - so Leyland should be able to mix and match well. In Perry and Zumaya though, the Tigers bullpen has a chance to go from good to great, if these guys can live up to their potential as dominant set ups v RH or LH pitching. The Tigers should get back to having a pen that protects leads at 70% or better (after last years set up shakiness had them at 63%), and it could be mid70s type pen if everything falls into place. That could mean 2-4 wins in the win column.
At the end of the day, I'm most worried about the starting pitching. Verlander has been mostly terrific in the last four years, but his 08 showed he's capable of a clunker season if he's not 100% right physically. Coming back strong from last years heavy work load on him will be a test for him. Porcello's talent is almost unfathomable - how can a kid this young be this good? Few 21 yr olds in baseball carry as big of a burden as he does, but he seems to have the shoulders for it. Incredible. It worries me having two RH pitchers in Scherzer and Bonderman who struggle to get LH hitters out in a division where contenders the Twins and Tribe send up some of the games best LH hitters. The Tigers pitching should be bad news head to head for the White Sox all right handed line up though. I was pretty confident that at least one of the four Tigers reclamation projects would rebound this year, but since they decided to just give Nate Robertson away to boost the confidence of Willis and Bonderman - my confidence in that group has been slashed by 25-33%. I don't rule out Galarraga contributing at some point though, and I like what I see from Willis and Bonderman enough to think we're going to get more from the back end of the rotation than we did last year.
In short, I think the offense will be better if the old dudes hold up - the defense will be mostly solid again - and the bully should be better and could be a real strength. If the Tigers get starting pitching, I think they'll be right there with the Twins to the end in the division again.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Tigers in 2010
Off-season: Mostly good moves in my opinion. It was time shake things up. Last year's overachieving ballclub was not a mere tweak or two away from being a realistic contender. Adding younger talent and committing to younger players on hand makes a ton of sense. Paring some additional payroll while the other major "bad" contracts melt away this year was good planning as well.
Brad Thomas might be a quiet gem of a move. Adding Scherzer and Schlereth made sense. Austin Jackson has a high enough ceiling to take the chance on. Phil Coke is probably just a guy with a good name for one-liners but only league-average production. Signing Johnny Damon was a good gamble. Cheap-ish short commitment, provides a skill at the top of the order that was missing previously.
I did not agree with the Jose Valverde signing. He is a very nice pitcher and I do believe he'll play well for Detroit. That isn't the issue. The commitment of giving a 65 inning role player the most money of any reliever in free agency and sacrificing the first round draft pick was a major over-commitment from Dombrowski. It won't appear such on the surface if Valverde stays healthy and notches 35 saves...but it was nonetheless. I also have major misgivings about the Nate Robertson Trade. I do not believe in that move. Nate was already a sunk cost and I do not believe his disappointment in starting in the bullpen would have hurt the team. I think he would have been decent insurance...in baseball's mysterious ways lefty pitchers can resurrect and reinvent themselves occasionally. I like Nate's chances a bit more than Willis'.
Deletions: The biggest gamble was letting Curtis Granderson go in a trade. He could certainly post some big seasons in New York's lineup and in their little park. Dombrowski's judgement really to the test here as the Granderson/A-Jax comparisons will be made. I believe DD had fair reasons for the trade in the end. Granderson was only going to get more expensive every year and he had regressed two years in a row...one more regression meant not being able to trade him for the talent the Tigers did get in return most likely.
Placido Polanco was a likeable little fellow who had 1.5 great years in Detroit and a couple of modest years. The Tigers had few expiring contracts this year at positions where they also had a player being groomed to play that was judged ready. However Second Base was one spot where this fell together....so it was a pretty easy call. Polanco landed softly on a contender with a ludicrously long and generous contract...I'm happy for him.
Fernando Rodney was a favorite player of mine (as was Granderson)....I'll miss watching him pitch. But he's a streaky reliever who felt he could do better elsewhere, so be it. I was also a major proponent of Brandon Lyon being signed (and not being cut when the wolves were howling over him to axed in April)...but he received the longest contract of any reliever in Free Agency....more power to him but the Tigers had no reason to match or beat that offer. Good luck in Houston.
Spring Training: Lots to like....several young guys showed promise and a few vets looked solid once again. However good Springs mean about as much as rough Springs. Everybody starts over on Monday.
The Tiger' Ceiling: I think you can make a case for 90+ wins if a lot of things go right. The top 3 in the rotation carrying some serious weight, Bondo having a presentable year, Magglio playing well for six months, Cabrera stepping up one more notch, A-Jax and Sizemore progressing throughout the year, Perry coming of age....and so on.
Inhibiting Factors: The Tigers starting pitchers at the top of their rotation all had big workload bounces last year will they comeback strong?
Is Carlos Guillen cooked? Or can he rebound with decent year?
Will the rookies contribute or will there be a revolving door at those two spots? I'm confident in them both, but nothing is proven yet, it could go either way. The kind of gamble I like though.
Will Zumaya help them or torpedo more games than he contributes positively to.?
Willis? Oh boy....we'll see. All I know is that I'm excited to see how it shakes out.
The Tigers won an inordinate amount of close games last year (2nd best record in the AL in games decided by 2-runs or less), that is hard to do two years in a row. They are also running up against The Plexiglass Principle, which holds that teams that who win 10+ more games over the previous year AND overperform their Pythagorean Record by a significant amount (the Tigers did both) usually fall back in the next season. I believe only two teams (out of dozens) in the modern era have qualified for this like the Tigers did last year and then taken the next step to be a playoff team the following the year. Its called the Plexiglass Principle because instead of breaking thru the wall with the good season the wall usually snaps back into place knocking the team backward for a year. I know many folks will think this is hogwash...I don't care about them....history is a powerful guide many times and this "Principle" has been as consistent as almost anything else.
The Organization as a Whole: I really like where this club stands and the direction its heading. They have two marquee players locked up longterm in Verlander and Cabrera. They have their worst commitments drying up this year for the most part. They are committing to younger talent (real talent, not wing-n-a-prayer prospects). They have at least a modest amount of position prospects creeping up in the system for depth. They have a couple of elite arms in the minors and shown the fortitude to get them to the majors early when warranted. Porcello and Scherzer are young and under team control at cheap rates for several more years. The Tigers are showing a commitment to global scouting and continuing to pay premium prices for draft picks, which is a good investment.
Whether or not this yields immediate success in 2010 is not a concern to me (no, its not that I "don't care how they finish", I just don't see the finality of a season's results, the next season is on the way). There is something building in Detroit in my opinion, it may flash this year...or it may take some patience. I have patience as long as the plan makes sense to me.
Predictive History: This is lined up as a "bad year" for me in forecasting the Tigers' fortunes. I was one game off in '05. I was way off in '06 (I said 81, they won 95). I hit it right on the money in '07 w/88 wins. I was way off in '08 (I said 92, they won 74). I nailed it right on 86 wins last year. So I'm tempted to say 77 so they'll win 88! LOL
Where it all adds up.: I tend to be optimistic....especially this time of year. "Tigers Fever" has been my enemy on predicting where they stand....I truly wanted to downgrade the '08 club but couldn't pull the trigger (I'm not talking about the depths they fell to...just something like 86 wins) as I had misgivings about that team. I have good feelings about the state of the organization now though. I like the defensive unit they've assembled. Laird, Inge, Everett, and Jackson will be good at the critical defensive positions. I do believe they'll score about 40 more runs over last year. I worry that the new levels of workload established by Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer last year will bit them a bit this year. However Porcello looks phenomenal right now.....a true Ace in the making to complement Verlander. Scherzer has a ceiling in their neighborhood as well perhaps. These three are probably enough to get them places if they can post close to 100 starts between them. I have some belief Bonderman can contribute. I am excited to see what Willis can do. The bullpen should be adequate maybe more than that. I think the Rookies will be "okay"...I have a feeling Sizemore outproduces Jackson offensively but not by a ton. If Jackson can play a solid CF, he'll be fine. Sizemore has hit at every level and is showing more power of late. His glove will play well enough. Can he stay healthy? His history has some marks on it there.
The Tigers also have some surplus outfielders to trade in their system and perhaps Ryan Strieby since he's blocked by Cabrera...so Dombrowski should be able to add a player if necessary during the year.
So I'm going to commit to 85 wins. I think the extra 40 runs the offense might produce will enable them to ward off the factors that I think were a bit lucky in producing 86 wins last year....so no drastic fall off now in the win column and a better future on the horizon. Is this my optimistic side? Yes. A week ago I was convincing myself they'd win 76 and that's it.....but Porcello's development looks like it may not plateau this year, Damon's signing should work out, and Magglio playing well batting third would mean the world over Clete Thomas batting third. So 85 wins it is....being on target for 85 wins should have them in position to play meaningful games in August/September.
Brad Thomas might be a quiet gem of a move. Adding Scherzer and Schlereth made sense. Austin Jackson has a high enough ceiling to take the chance on. Phil Coke is probably just a guy with a good name for one-liners but only league-average production. Signing Johnny Damon was a good gamble. Cheap-ish short commitment, provides a skill at the top of the order that was missing previously.
I did not agree with the Jose Valverde signing. He is a very nice pitcher and I do believe he'll play well for Detroit. That isn't the issue. The commitment of giving a 65 inning role player the most money of any reliever in free agency and sacrificing the first round draft pick was a major over-commitment from Dombrowski. It won't appear such on the surface if Valverde stays healthy and notches 35 saves...but it was nonetheless. I also have major misgivings about the Nate Robertson Trade. I do not believe in that move. Nate was already a sunk cost and I do not believe his disappointment in starting in the bullpen would have hurt the team. I think he would have been decent insurance...in baseball's mysterious ways lefty pitchers can resurrect and reinvent themselves occasionally. I like Nate's chances a bit more than Willis'.
Deletions: The biggest gamble was letting Curtis Granderson go in a trade. He could certainly post some big seasons in New York's lineup and in their little park. Dombrowski's judgement really to the test here as the Granderson/A-Jax comparisons will be made. I believe DD had fair reasons for the trade in the end. Granderson was only going to get more expensive every year and he had regressed two years in a row...one more regression meant not being able to trade him for the talent the Tigers did get in return most likely.
Placido Polanco was a likeable little fellow who had 1.5 great years in Detroit and a couple of modest years. The Tigers had few expiring contracts this year at positions where they also had a player being groomed to play that was judged ready. However Second Base was one spot where this fell together....so it was a pretty easy call. Polanco landed softly on a contender with a ludicrously long and generous contract...I'm happy for him.
Fernando Rodney was a favorite player of mine (as was Granderson)....I'll miss watching him pitch. But he's a streaky reliever who felt he could do better elsewhere, so be it. I was also a major proponent of Brandon Lyon being signed (and not being cut when the wolves were howling over him to axed in April)...but he received the longest contract of any reliever in Free Agency....more power to him but the Tigers had no reason to match or beat that offer. Good luck in Houston.
Spring Training: Lots to like....several young guys showed promise and a few vets looked solid once again. However good Springs mean about as much as rough Springs. Everybody starts over on Monday.
The Tiger' Ceiling: I think you can make a case for 90+ wins if a lot of things go right. The top 3 in the rotation carrying some serious weight, Bondo having a presentable year, Magglio playing well for six months, Cabrera stepping up one more notch, A-Jax and Sizemore progressing throughout the year, Perry coming of age....and so on.
Inhibiting Factors: The Tigers starting pitchers at the top of their rotation all had big workload bounces last year will they comeback strong?
Is Carlos Guillen cooked? Or can he rebound with decent year?
Will the rookies contribute or will there be a revolving door at those two spots? I'm confident in them both, but nothing is proven yet, it could go either way. The kind of gamble I like though.
Will Zumaya help them or torpedo more games than he contributes positively to.?
Willis? Oh boy....we'll see. All I know is that I'm excited to see how it shakes out.
The Tigers won an inordinate amount of close games last year (2nd best record in the AL in games decided by 2-runs or less), that is hard to do two years in a row. They are also running up against The Plexiglass Principle, which holds that teams that who win 10+ more games over the previous year AND overperform their Pythagorean Record by a significant amount (the Tigers did both) usually fall back in the next season. I believe only two teams (out of dozens) in the modern era have qualified for this like the Tigers did last year and then taken the next step to be a playoff team the following the year. Its called the Plexiglass Principle because instead of breaking thru the wall with the good season the wall usually snaps back into place knocking the team backward for a year. I know many folks will think this is hogwash...I don't care about them....history is a powerful guide many times and this "Principle" has been as consistent as almost anything else.
The Organization as a Whole: I really like where this club stands and the direction its heading. They have two marquee players locked up longterm in Verlander and Cabrera. They have their worst commitments drying up this year for the most part. They are committing to younger talent (real talent, not wing-n-a-prayer prospects). They have at least a modest amount of position prospects creeping up in the system for depth. They have a couple of elite arms in the minors and shown the fortitude to get them to the majors early when warranted. Porcello and Scherzer are young and under team control at cheap rates for several more years. The Tigers are showing a commitment to global scouting and continuing to pay premium prices for draft picks, which is a good investment.
Whether or not this yields immediate success in 2010 is not a concern to me (no, its not that I "don't care how they finish", I just don't see the finality of a season's results, the next season is on the way). There is something building in Detroit in my opinion, it may flash this year...or it may take some patience. I have patience as long as the plan makes sense to me.
Predictive History: This is lined up as a "bad year" for me in forecasting the Tigers' fortunes. I was one game off in '05. I was way off in '06 (I said 81, they won 95). I hit it right on the money in '07 w/88 wins. I was way off in '08 (I said 92, they won 74). I nailed it right on 86 wins last year. So I'm tempted to say 77 so they'll win 88! LOL
Where it all adds up.: I tend to be optimistic....especially this time of year. "Tigers Fever" has been my enemy on predicting where they stand....I truly wanted to downgrade the '08 club but couldn't pull the trigger (I'm not talking about the depths they fell to...just something like 86 wins) as I had misgivings about that team. I have good feelings about the state of the organization now though. I like the defensive unit they've assembled. Laird, Inge, Everett, and Jackson will be good at the critical defensive positions. I do believe they'll score about 40 more runs over last year. I worry that the new levels of workload established by Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer last year will bit them a bit this year. However Porcello looks phenomenal right now.....a true Ace in the making to complement Verlander. Scherzer has a ceiling in their neighborhood as well perhaps. These three are probably enough to get them places if they can post close to 100 starts between them. I have some belief Bonderman can contribute. I am excited to see what Willis can do. The bullpen should be adequate maybe more than that. I think the Rookies will be "okay"...I have a feeling Sizemore outproduces Jackson offensively but not by a ton. If Jackson can play a solid CF, he'll be fine. Sizemore has hit at every level and is showing more power of late. His glove will play well enough. Can he stay healthy? His history has some marks on it there.
The Tigers also have some surplus outfielders to trade in their system and perhaps Ryan Strieby since he's blocked by Cabrera...so Dombrowski should be able to add a player if necessary during the year.
So I'm going to commit to 85 wins. I think the extra 40 runs the offense might produce will enable them to ward off the factors that I think were a bit lucky in producing 86 wins last year....so no drastic fall off now in the win column and a better future on the horizon. Is this my optimistic side? Yes. A week ago I was convincing myself they'd win 76 and that's it.....but Porcello's development looks like it may not plateau this year, Damon's signing should work out, and Magglio playing well batting third would mean the world over Clete Thomas batting third. So 85 wins it is....being on target for 85 wins should have them in position to play meaningful games in August/September.
Friday, April 2, 2010
How about a trade on the eve of Opening Day? (just for fun, Dave!)
I'm sitting here watching the A's/Giants game on MLBN and Brett Anderson looks like the real deal for Oakland's rotation. Ace-level stuff from the lefty. Cliff Pennington has made a couple of really athletic plays at Short for the Athletics as well. Watching the A's got me to looking at their pitching situation...and a thought occured to me.....
The A's have a numbers crunch in their rotation.....they have Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez vying for the last spot in the rotation. They'd never trade Cahill at this point....but I wonder if Oakland's General Manager Billy Beane would trade Gonzalez (he's only 24) if they decide Cahill has earned the gig. The MLB.com beat writer doesn't think the A's need Gio in the bullpen due to their depth out there and this writer also doesn't see Gio needing more time in the minors.
Gonzalez has had control issues in the majors....but he's pitching well this spring. He's been a big time K-machine in the minors....dominating lefty stuff at times. If he were on the market, I wonder if Tigers' GM Dave Dombrowski could get in the running to get him? If Gonzalez ever finds it, even for a season, that could be a heckuva season. He has a live arm. That could be nice insurance if a Willis trainwreck is inevitable....(and I hope its not...) I wonder what Billy Beane would want for him.....he seems to like collecting outfielders...Clete Thomas? Or Casper Wells? Dunno....but I really like the thought of adding a guy like Gonzalez, if Beane will take the call about him.
The A's have a numbers crunch in their rotation.....they have Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez vying for the last spot in the rotation. They'd never trade Cahill at this point....but I wonder if Oakland's General Manager Billy Beane would trade Gonzalez (he's only 24) if they decide Cahill has earned the gig. The MLB.com beat writer doesn't think the A's need Gio in the bullpen due to their depth out there and this writer also doesn't see Gio needing more time in the minors.
Gonzalez has had control issues in the majors....but he's pitching well this spring. He's been a big time K-machine in the minors....dominating lefty stuff at times. If he were on the market, I wonder if Tigers' GM Dave Dombrowski could get in the running to get him? If Gonzalez ever finds it, even for a season, that could be a heckuva season. He has a live arm. That could be nice insurance if a Willis trainwreck is inevitable....(and I hope its not...) I wonder what Billy Beane would want for him.....he seems to like collecting outfielders...Clete Thomas? Or Casper Wells? Dunno....but I really like the thought of adding a guy like Gonzalez, if Beane will take the call about him.
Scherzer
Max Scherzer posted a quality start in Milwaukee in the Tigers 3-2 loss. Pretty good outing it appears. The Brew-Crew had one rally for the three runs. 1 walk and 4 singles against the bottom of the lineup in the 2nd inning. Otherwise Scherzer posted donuts in his other 5 IP, striking out 4 and allowing zero extra-base hits. He got through the 6 inning stint on 91 pitches. So about 15 pitches per inning....not bad considering there was a note that among pitchers who threw 100+ innings that Mad Max had average the highest number of pitches per inning at 18.
Scherzer also held Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, and Prince Fielder to one harmless single on the night.
Austin Jackson went deep for a solo shot and Brandon Inge matched it. The Tigers had the bases juiced and only 1-out in the 8th after Larish, Kelly, and Inge strung together 3 singles. But Alex Avila bounced into a force at home and Danny Worth showed none by striking out to end the threat....that left Adam Everett waiting helplessly on deck just itching to have a chance to break the game wide open with Bunyanesque blast I'm sure. Maybe next time Adam!
Chris D Top 10 Prospect List - April Edition
1 - SP Jacob Turner (18)
2 - SP Casey Crosby (21)
3 - OF Austin Jackson (23)
4 - 1b Ryan Strieby (24)
5 - 2b Scott Sizemore (25)
6 - OF Danny Fields (19)
7 - SP Andy Oliver (22)
8 - C Alex Avila (23)
9 - SS Gustavo Nunez (22)
10 - OF Wilkin Ramirez (24)
I had been ranking Strieby and Sizemore above Austin Jackson because they've shown much more all around hitting compentency ability to date. Jackson is younger than both though and has shown this spring the long term ability to develop in the hitting competency areas of plate patience and SLG %. His extra base hit explosion this spring is encouraging. He also is a more natural two way player if his offensive game continues to develop. I see all three guys on the same plane in terms of potential caliber of players at their position - they all can be All-Stars. Personally, I still would have started Jackson in Toledo this year to let his offensive game continue to develop while protecting his service time, but he looks committed to trying to prove me wrong about his readiness. Great spring for him.
I'm bumping Daniel Schlereth out of the top 10 and bringing Wilkin Ramirez back. It's hard to figure out where to put relief pitchers on prospects ranking list when getting compared to potential everyday players, and Schlereth's command issues need to get sorted out. This is a big year for Wilkin Ramirez. The Tigers have a ton of OF options on the door step, but Ramirez remains the guy with the most tools. He should be comfortable in Toledo this year and ready to have a big year.
The move of Danny Fields to the OF makes sense. His size and speed combo is just a natural fit for CF. It's hard to put expectations on him before he makes his minor league debut, but his skill set might eventually draw comparisons to Junior Griffey. Great speed (one scout has called him the fastest player in the organization), real power (he was hitting HRs out of Comerica Park in batting practice with a wood bat at age 12), professional blood lines, left handed stick... Comparisons to Griffey are not fair of course. At age 19, Griffey was already on the cusp of being a big leaguer; while the Tigers are right now trying to determine if Fields at the same age is ready for Low A ball or extended spring training than rookie ball. Maybe call him Junior Griffey Light.
2 - SP Casey Crosby (21)
3 - OF Austin Jackson (23)
4 - 1b Ryan Strieby (24)
5 - 2b Scott Sizemore (25)
6 - OF Danny Fields (19)
7 - SP Andy Oliver (22)
8 - C Alex Avila (23)
9 - SS Gustavo Nunez (22)
10 - OF Wilkin Ramirez (24)
I had been ranking Strieby and Sizemore above Austin Jackson because they've shown much more all around hitting compentency ability to date. Jackson is younger than both though and has shown this spring the long term ability to develop in the hitting competency areas of plate patience and SLG %. His extra base hit explosion this spring is encouraging. He also is a more natural two way player if his offensive game continues to develop. I see all three guys on the same plane in terms of potential caliber of players at their position - they all can be All-Stars. Personally, I still would have started Jackson in Toledo this year to let his offensive game continue to develop while protecting his service time, but he looks committed to trying to prove me wrong about his readiness. Great spring for him.
I'm bumping Daniel Schlereth out of the top 10 and bringing Wilkin Ramirez back. It's hard to figure out where to put relief pitchers on prospects ranking list when getting compared to potential everyday players, and Schlereth's command issues need to get sorted out. This is a big year for Wilkin Ramirez. The Tigers have a ton of OF options on the door step, but Ramirez remains the guy with the most tools. He should be comfortable in Toledo this year and ready to have a big year.
The move of Danny Fields to the OF makes sense. His size and speed combo is just a natural fit for CF. It's hard to put expectations on him before he makes his minor league debut, but his skill set might eventually draw comparisons to Junior Griffey. Great speed (one scout has called him the fastest player in the organization), real power (he was hitting HRs out of Comerica Park in batting practice with a wood bat at age 12), professional blood lines, left handed stick... Comparisons to Griffey are not fair of course. At age 19, Griffey was already on the cusp of being a big leaguer; while the Tigers are right now trying to determine if Fields at the same age is ready for Low A ball or extended spring training than rookie ball. Maybe call him Junior Griffey Light.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Lord, help me....give me strength.
A co-worker just convinced me to order P-90X.....the intense home workout/diet regimen. 90-days of effort....let's hope I can do it! It'll arrive next week....
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Stuff on my mind....
It seems the mood of the fanbase has turned sour since the Robertson Trade. I don't get that. I would have liked for the Tigers to hold Robertson but its not the end of the world. Nate would have chipped in around the margins but wasn't the key to the club's success.
Both of Miguel Cabrera's homers on Tuesday were estimated at 500'....wow. I'd love to see an MVP caliber year from the big man to get his past behind him a bit.
Justin Verlander has had two straight iffy outings. I'd say "no worries".....yet. In order for the 2010 Tigers to be good, Verlander must be great.
Remember the name (how could you forget it) Gauntlett Eldemire. Ohio Bobcat outfielder...Sandwich Round projection for the June Draft right around where the Tigers will be drafting. That handle might surpass "Purnal Goldy" on the Tigers' "all-name" club. I hope David Chadd likes Eldemire.
I like how Scott Sizemore is carrying a .370-ish OBP in the Spring. Pretty solid. I don't think he's going to be the substantial downgrade defensively from Placido Polanco that The Pollyanna's think. Sizemore's youth and athleticism might just make up for losing Polanco's "steadiness".
I'm real interested to see what Johnny Damon brings to the top of the order. If he's on-base at a .365+ clip then Magglio and Cabrera will be knocking in plenty of runs.
Bud Selig and the Fox Network will have a coronary over a Rays/Marlins Swamp Series in October. Could happen.....
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Goodbye Nate Robertson
Nate Robertson returns to the Marlins organization. Tough call for me.....I get the idea of moving Robertson for a prospect and I know they had to clear roster space. But he was pitching decently and the Tigers are going to need some innings throughout the year. Nate posted a 3.68 ERA in his starts last year. He'd struck out 19 batters in 19.1 IP this spring.
He's been one of my favorites, so this isn't fun to see. Winning game 1 of the ALCS in 2006, outdueling Roger Clemens in '06, "Gum time", and numerous other highlights. Certainly plenty of lowpoints too. The Tigers haven't traded a former Cy Young contender either.
So......Bonderman and Willis.....we shall see how this goes. Shouldn't be boring.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Fake Baseball Fun
Fake Baseball Draft Season came to an end last night as the rather competitive Tigers Forum Fan League (TFFL) completed its draft. This is my 4th year and I'm coming off two 3rd places finishes and one woeful 6th place crash and burn. There are 11 to 14 teams usually and this year its 11. 5x5 format using OBP instead of batting average.
I was randomly selected to pick last....numero eleven-o. But in a Snake-draft this gave me back to back picks throughout the night and I actually don't mind that.
Overall I think I did okay but only if the words "sophomore slump" don't get applied to several of my players. Second year players are going to have big roles on this club....Matt Wieters, Andrew McCutcheon, Gordon Beckham, Tommy Hanson, David Price, Dexter Fowler, and Chris Davis. Also young players Justin Upton, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Chris Perez will be playing roles of varying importance. One rookie thrown in to boot, Julio Borbon.
Picking 11th and 12th I led off by getting two of the better sticks on the board....Mark Teixeira and Evan Longoria. That should produce close to 70 HR, 220 RBI, a very solid dose of OBP, and around 200 runs. I nearly chose Matt Kemp here and I've had Kemp on my squad in other seasons....but I had other guys in mind for steals later on and Kemp's marginal OBP kept me from choosing him. I was disappointed that Joe Mauer went off the board prior to my pick....I had hoped to nab him.
Adam Dunn was drafted to be another power/OBP source and Yunel Escobar should be a solid 4.5 category contributor as a shortstop. McCutcheon has been scorching all spring and played well last year. If he steps up and combines with Weiters and Upton as young players emerging as stars then I should be pretty solid across the board offensively. (Magglio Ordonez having a big comeback season would be heaven-sent as well.....we'll see what Maggs can bring to the table) Borbon and Fowler were speed choices in case I'm hurting for steals at some point. Also, if I'm not, having speed guys to trade later is always a good thing.
On the pitching front.....in addition to Hanson and Price, I was able to get Jon Lester, John Lackey, Francisco Liriano, and Kevin Slowey. There was quite a concerted run at starting pitching in the first few rounds....so many big names went off the board early. I jumped in to get Lester at least a round or two earlier then I would have normally planned. In the bullpen, I ended up with Brian Wilson, Bobby Jenks, and Chris Perez. So three guys chasing "saves". Wilson was electric last year and should help the rate-stats a bit if he can duplicate it. Bullpen work is so up and down from year-to-year though that we'll just have to see. Jenks has one foot on the banana peel most of the time....but he ought to post 30 saves I'll bet. Perez is replacing Kerry Wood for a couple of months if he can keep the gig. I'll ride him for a while and see if I can pick up another closer on the cheap somewhere as clubs start making changes.
It should be another fun season. I'm in 3 leagues this year. Two that I care about and one new one that I could tell on draft night that the majority of the league is ambivalent about. Its at ESPN.com....I'll just try to have some fun with it.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Rotation Rotation Rotation
If I'm in charge, Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis would round the rotation with Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, and Max Scherzer; and it would be a very easy decision. Robertson and Willis have out performed Bonderman this spring for one. But more importantly, this rotation needs left handed arms.
Within the division, the Tigers will compete with the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians, two of the best left handed hitting lineups in baseball. Other American League contenders have strong left handed lineups as well. Comerica Park is also a ballpark that favors left handed pitching. In 2006, the Tigers rode three left handed starters to the playoffs. Now, more than one is too many? I don't think so.
Dave Dombrowski seems to favor Bonderman's chances for success over the two lefthanders. He surprisingly made the 4th starter spot Bonderman's to lose before spring training began, even though Bonderman has the most physically to come back from in trying to revive his career. Bonderman hasn't spiked himself this spring with his performance. His velocity is better. He had one really bad outing that hurt his numbers. But no doubt Willis and Robertson have shown more this spring. And the rotation is crying out for left handed slants.
The Tigers will already have one right handed starter in Scherzer who struggles to get left handed hitters out. Bonderman will be a second. And the Tigers have depth in right handed pitching options with Zach Miner, Armando Galarraga, Eddie Bonine, and Alfredo Figaro. They have no such depth in left handed options ready to run out there right now.
I'm not in favor of trading one of the starting pitching reclamation projects at this juncture. The injury to Miner makes things easy. Bonderman can go to the pen as the long guy, and you can run Willis and Robertson out there for the first month and evaluate. I see no reason whatsoever to just trade Nate Robertson and pay him to play for someone else for the sole purpose of making the decision easier on Jim Leyland. They are not going to get anything of significance back in trade for any one of these reclamation projects right now.
My rotation: Verlander, Scherzer, Robertson, Porcello, and Willis. My pen: Bonderman, Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry, Brad Thomas, Fu Te Ni, Phil Coke, and Jose Valverde.
Within the division, the Tigers will compete with the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians, two of the best left handed hitting lineups in baseball. Other American League contenders have strong left handed lineups as well. Comerica Park is also a ballpark that favors left handed pitching. In 2006, the Tigers rode three left handed starters to the playoffs. Now, more than one is too many? I don't think so.
Dave Dombrowski seems to favor Bonderman's chances for success over the two lefthanders. He surprisingly made the 4th starter spot Bonderman's to lose before spring training began, even though Bonderman has the most physically to come back from in trying to revive his career. Bonderman hasn't spiked himself this spring with his performance. His velocity is better. He had one really bad outing that hurt his numbers. But no doubt Willis and Robertson have shown more this spring. And the rotation is crying out for left handed slants.
The Tigers will already have one right handed starter in Scherzer who struggles to get left handed hitters out. Bonderman will be a second. And the Tigers have depth in right handed pitching options with Zach Miner, Armando Galarraga, Eddie Bonine, and Alfredo Figaro. They have no such depth in left handed options ready to run out there right now.
I'm not in favor of trading one of the starting pitching reclamation projects at this juncture. The injury to Miner makes things easy. Bonderman can go to the pen as the long guy, and you can run Willis and Robertson out there for the first month and evaluate. I see no reason whatsoever to just trade Nate Robertson and pay him to play for someone else for the sole purpose of making the decision easier on Jim Leyland. They are not going to get anything of significance back in trade for any one of these reclamation projects right now.
My rotation: Verlander, Scherzer, Robertson, Porcello, and Willis. My pen: Bonderman, Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry, Brad Thomas, Fu Te Ni, Phil Coke, and Jose Valverde.
The Rumors Rumble
I have a hard time believing that the Tigers are so disappointed with Scott Sizemore that they are actively shopping for second-base help. I'd be more inclined to believe they are looking for middle-infield help to upgrade from Adam Everett/Ramon Santiago. Jayson Stark has a blurb over Sizemore according to MLBTradeRumors.com. We'll see how the veracity of this plays out. I think the reports on Sizemore have been solid. His defense is drawing some praise and, while not hitting for average yet, he's drawing enough walks to remain helpful which I believe personally is a sign of good things to come.
However I will say this.....I was on a one-person campaign for Dave Dombrowski to sign Felipe Lopez in Free Agency once he was lingering on the market DEEP into the off-season. His price dropped like a Mafia-hit victim in Cement Shoes even though he had a really productive season last year. He signed in STL for a measly $1.2M w/no compensation required beyond it. He plays 4 positions and over the last two seasons had really become a much more viable offensive threat. There have been whispers over time about his character and motivations....but for $1.2M he's cheap and cut-able, you can cut ties on a miscreant at that price if there was validity to those concerns. My hunch is that stuff is overblown and something that may just be dogging him from some early career attitude issues. His game has gotten better with age, I bet his maturity level has as well. Too bad Dombrowski passed on this Lopez opportunity, as did 28 other clubs. It would be disappointing to see him having a panic-attack about Sizemore at this early stage. It should also be stated again that Stark's report could be all rumor mill garbage as well and the Tigers aren't really worried about Sizemore. It could be Dombrowski just doing the due diligence of talking about everyone who is available.
On the Nate Robertson front.......he pitched well versus the Yankees B-squad yesterday. This could only help incrementally in finding a trade partner if that indeed is what Dombrowski is up to according to reports. Nate now has 19 K in 19.1 IP, so his "stuff" is looking solid right now. In my opinion clubs like the D-Backs, Dodgers, Cubs, Astros, Mariners, and Mets are all possible targets with a couple of other possibilities out there.
The big question is what will Dombrowski be looking for in return for Nate? To me, it all comes down to how much of Robertson's tab he's willing to pick up. If they are happy to merely clear the spot on the roster and pay half to 2/3rds of his salary I don't see them getting much of a return, perhaps even the dreaded "PTBNL". If they'll pay nearly all of his salary I could see them getting a better player in return. Or they could do a salary-match trade and take some other bloated deal in return to match Robertson's cash.
Personally? I'm leaning toward keeping Robertson. He's throwing well and the Tigers need the pitching depth. Getting a backup catcher or a middling middle infielder doesn't thrill me. Heck, Robertson posted a 3.68 ERA during his short stint in the rotation last year, it was his bullpen work that torpedoed his ERA overall. I think he's relatively viable. We'll just have to see what Dombrowski can work out.....one thing we know is that Dombrowski has gotten the better end of the deal on the majority of trades he's worked in Detroit, at least in my opinion. So I'll rarely say "You CAN'T trade so-and-so" because ol' Dave might just shock us. (the Renteria Trade Debacle notwithstanding! LOL)
For what it's worth....Stark also was reporting the Tigers were shopping Brad Thomas. This makes some sense. The Tigers have a fair amount of lefties in the system right now and Thomas has no minor league options left. A club like the Rays may need a lefty for their bullpen for instance....so I can see why Dombrowski would be trying to see if Thomas has any cache' on the market right now.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Oh how Tweet it is....
Well....if Dave Dombrowski is shopping Robertson as reported on MLBTR then tomorrow's outing versus the Yankees should be interesting.
What club needs a pitcher? I guess, at least I assume, that no rebuilding club wants Robertson. The Pirates, Nats, Padres, etc....why would they?
So that leaves teams that might think they have a shot but believe they're an arm short. Milwaukee, Seattle, Cubs, St. Louis, Houston (the Astros seem to make strange decisions so I'm putting them on the list), Mets, Dodgers, and maybe one or two others.
What would the Tigers want? Well, I would imagine the more of Robertson's tab they pick up the better player they might get in return. A bit has been made of the Tigers scouting backup catchers. I guess that might be it. I'm thinking it might a bit less immediate of a contributing player. I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up being the dreaded "Player To Be Named Later"....the Tigers could agree to a list of possible prospects and they'd have three months to pick one eventually. I'm guessing that it would be a player young enough to avoid having to put on the 40-man roster if we find out right away what the return is (if a deal happens...just 'cause John Paul Morosi at FoxSports is tweeting about the whispers doesn't guarantee anything is imminent).
I recall there was mild disbelief among the fanbase a couple of years ago when Mike Maroth merely brought a PTBNL in return...there are some similarities here. However Robertson has a bit more ability than Maroth in my opinion and he's pitching relatively well right now....so I'd be hopeful of a better return than what DD eventually got for Maroth. (the lamentable Chris Lambert)
Thursday, March 25, 2010
"Camp Positivity" in Lakeland?
Two wins for the Tigers today and their pitching was very solid in both contests. 6 pitchers combined on a two-hitter in beating the Blue Jays and another half-dozen hurlers help toppled the Mighty Nats in a split crew game, 8-2.
All eyes were on Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman. Both did fine enough I suppose. Willis walks his first two batter but then rebounds smartly allowing only 1 run overall and two more baserunners. He even struck out 3 batters to match his 3 walks. A 1:1 K/BB ratio is nothing great of course but getting a modicum of whiffs for Dontrelle is good to see.
Bonderman had to pitch around errors by Johnny Damon and Brent Dlugach....he went 4.1 IP and allowed 1 ER on 5 hits and walk. He also uncorked one wild pitch. I'm most interested to hear the reviews of his outing and see if the split-fingered fastball was effective and perhaps helped cause the 7 groundball outs he induced versus only 4 flyball outs.
The stats are relatively meaningless of course for Spring Training when trying to judge Nate Robertson, Bonderman, and Willis. Its really all about how they look and how their stuff is impressing the powers that be. Joe Sheehan returned to Baseball Prospectus for a chat today and said something I wish I would have written, "Statistics are only meaningful when generated in the process of trying to win baseball games." This is a perfect way of expressing it my mind by Sheehan. Spring games are often not about winning...probably a lot more than "often". Its about working on new pitches, new batting approaches, seeing a kid in a certain situation, etc....winning on the back burner. So I guess it really comes to Jim Leyland, Rick Knapp, and Dave Dombrowski. How do Knapp and Leyland believe the three respective guys are throwing and how it will hold up when the bell rings. Will Dombrowski elect to keep all three on the roster when we know one at least will have to head to the bullpen.
On another topic there seems, among the fanbase, some optimism building for the '10 season due to the recent good play by the Tigers. I will admit that the error count is decent, the bullpen looks pretty solid, they are hitting okay most of the time, and the rotation might be deep enough. Is it a house of cards or is the real thing budding? I'm still not moved too far off of saying this is an 80 or 81 win ballclub. I'm encouraged to an extent....but we gotta see the real deal come April 5. The good news is there hasn't been a festering story of anyone struggling so badly that its creating a constant drumbeat of worry....its been "Camp Positivity" looking from the outside. Does that help win real games starting soon? We'll see....
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Tough Break for the Royals....
One of their top half-dozen prospects, southpaw pitcher Danny Duffy, has decided to leave baseball to re-assess his priorities in life. This is not injury related in any way. Good for him I suppose....but that pitching depth the Royals liked to talk about in their system took a big hit today.
This kid had a 2.49 ERA in his minor league career thus far and had a K/H ratio of 290/188 which is really impressive plus a solid K/BB ratio of 290/83. This is a prospect they expected to be a piece of their rotation one day.
The A's had Grant Desme leave their organization last month to enter the priesthood....it will be interesting to hear more about Duffy's story.
The sweet smell of Spring....ahhhhhhhh
Clete Thomas is a MONSTER in Florida...his current batting slash-line is: .400/.500/.600....I love the nice round numbers. Ruthian....Bondsian production. Unfortunately Thomasonian production will probably settle back upon us eventually.
Brent Dlugach is 11-28 for a smooth .393 batting clip. However one might want to notice he's K'd 9 times versus 0 walks while sporting a BABIP of .529. His slash-line is currently: .393/.393/.750.....
Its fun to attempt to spot trends or pull positives or negatives out of Spring Training numbers....but for the most part they are meaningless due to small sample and other factors like inconsistent competition level. Spring training is truly for the scouts and talent evaluators to shine and make the right calls on who is exhibiting skills that will translate when the bell rings in April. Statistically meaningful samples are already in the books and determine who is getting some of these opportunities in Spring Training...but the numbers they are accruing probably mean little to those making decisions. Jackson's batting eye is being evaluated, Bonderman's split-finger, Willis' velocity, and so on, are more important than Willis' nice ERA or Clete Thomas putting up Ted Williams' numbers in 40 plate appearances.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Draft Watch 2010
I was going to look at some college players today on the D1 level but truthfully there are only a few guys as intriguing as the kid in Nevada. Bryce Harper is living up to the hype so far. He's supposed to be a high school junior this year, instead he took the GED and enrolled at a community college program...he's playing in a good league for that level by most accounts. So far Harper has hit .420 with eight homers, 27 RBIs, an .864 slugging percentage and a .514 on-base percentage in 27 games against older competition. Its also wood-bat league, I've not read it but I'm assuming scouts like seeing him swing one of those rather than aluminum.
He is ranked by nearly everyone as the top talent in the upcoming draft. However he is in a unique position where he can actually turn down offers and re-enter the draft for each of the next three years depending on the path he takes on the amateur side. So he can command major money since he has the hammer of walking away from signing and re-entering the draft so many times at a young age. This is why many observers think plenty of teams are going to bail on drafting him despite the talent. He could be in a "Porcello Situation" and fall back in the draft. That turned out well for the Tigers in '07! Of course....we know that the Tigers won't have that chance this year if indeed this happens. Oh well....left-handed bats w/massive power who also play behind the plate come along every day, right?
He is ranked by nearly everyone as the top talent in the upcoming draft. However he is in a unique position where he can actually turn down offers and re-enter the draft for each of the next three years depending on the path he takes on the amateur side. So he can command major money since he has the hammer of walking away from signing and re-entering the draft so many times at a young age. This is why many observers think plenty of teams are going to bail on drafting him despite the talent. He could be in a "Porcello Situation" and fall back in the draft. That turned out well for the Tigers in '07! Of course....we know that the Tigers won't have that chance this year if indeed this happens. Oh well....left-handed bats w/massive power who also play behind the plate come along every day, right?
Fun Spring Numbers
Think Adam Everett (2 for 27) stinks? Nate McLouth is 1 for 35 this spring with 14Ks. And unlike Everett, he's supposed to help his team on offense.
8.1IP - 21 hits and 5 walks. Typical spring for Kevin Millwood who always is terrible in exhibition. At least it seems that way.
Former Tiger high round high school draft picks are still kicking around camps this spring. Brent Clevlen has gotten a decent look from the Braves. Scott Moore had a chance to make the O's at a UT. Unfortunately - both still can't hit - Moore (.111) - Clevlen (.116).
Want another reason to pick the Rays over the Yankees in the AL East? Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez have 29 RBI combined in spring training - or the exact same number as Teixiera, ARod, Jeter, Swisher, Granderson, and Cano combined. And the Rays don't even have a place for either of those kids in their lineup.
Would you believe Nate Robertson leads the AL in IPs pitched in spring training with 14.1? Guess the Tigers aren't the only team that seems slow to extend their pitchers in games in spring.
Scott Sizemore has impressed with a nice 1 to 1 w/k ratio - 8 and 8 this spring. Who has the best W to K ratio in spring training so far? A player Sizemore draws comparisons to - Aaron Hill (9 walks 1 K).
8.1IP - 21 hits and 5 walks. Typical spring for Kevin Millwood who always is terrible in exhibition. At least it seems that way.
Former Tiger high round high school draft picks are still kicking around camps this spring. Brent Clevlen has gotten a decent look from the Braves. Scott Moore had a chance to make the O's at a UT. Unfortunately - both still can't hit - Moore (.111) - Clevlen (.116).
Want another reason to pick the Rays over the Yankees in the AL East? Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez have 29 RBI combined in spring training - or the exact same number as Teixiera, ARod, Jeter, Swisher, Granderson, and Cano combined. And the Rays don't even have a place for either of those kids in their lineup.
Would you believe Nate Robertson leads the AL in IPs pitched in spring training with 14.1? Guess the Tigers aren't the only team that seems slow to extend their pitchers in games in spring.
Scott Sizemore has impressed with a nice 1 to 1 w/k ratio - 8 and 8 this spring. Who has the best W to K ratio in spring training so far? A player Sizemore draws comparisons to - Aaron Hill (9 walks 1 K).
Monday, March 22, 2010
One Inning?
According to MLB.com's Jason Beck, Willis was basically throwing his side session in the game today and the one inning of work was by design. He's still supposed to start one of the split squad games on Thursday. Beck also commented that 8 of Willis 10 pitches were 90+; and he touched 93mph.
One inning?
Dontrelle goes one frame. What do we make of this? Auditioning for the bullpen? Showcasing for a trade? Dunno....
Nate Robertson had the makings of a quality start in progress....almost identical to his last start. A few too many baserunners allowed for the WHIP-junkies....but not bad overall. 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K. I think Nate has a job in the rotation...(unless he gets dealt!)
Nice to see Jackson and Sizemore at the top of the lineup.....maybe not this year, but in the post-Johnny Damon Era I could easily envision these two batting together there in future seasons together.
Musing on Mauer
The Twins pretty much "had" to get this deal done as far as their local community was concerned. Joe Mauer was a legend before he ever finished High School in the area. He was coming from a prominent athletic family to begin with that was already known to avid sports fans all over Minnesota. He led his school to state football titles and turned down Bobby Bowden's offers at Florida State to play Quarterback. The Twins used their local knowledge to pass over Mark Prior (the Stephen Strasburg of his day!) to get Mauer.(Local sports radio types excoriated the Twins when that happened for being too parochial and, of course, cheap).
Mauer came quickly through the Twins' system and showed promise even while dealing with early spates of injuries to his knees and back. Despite calls for a position switch almost immediately following his first injury, he's become a defensive plus behind the plate. His offensive game of course has now reached stratospheric heights...and not only "for a catcher"...but he's just plainly an offensive force.
During this time in MLB he has become an Icon in Minnesota (and I hate bestowing the overused word "icon", but in this case it has merit). Young girls love him, old folks love him, guys in their 20's would want to be him. He's the sole reason a lot of folks follow the Twins in Mauer-sota. You can't overstate the feeling that Minnesotans have for Mauer being "One of us!". (I lived in MN from '97 to '07 btw....I saw this first-hand) Losing Joe Mauer would have turned off a generation of Twins' fans. It would be bigger than Jeter becoming a Dodger to a Yankees' fan (proportional to the markets).
The Twins used taxpayer money to fund their new palace Target Field. Not investing in Joe Mauer carried costs well beyond the baseball field. There would have been severe backlash in my mind.....not one quelled merely by a winning streak or a winning ballclub after his leaving.
So, how will it play on the field? Well....how long will he catch? How durable will he be? Can he continue to hit for the power he flashed so impressively in '09? Will the $184M commitment over the next 8-yrs (no word that I've seen on what money is deferred) affect what other talent the Twins will put on the field?
I think the Twins will probably be okay. I see no reason, other than injury, that Mauer isn't very good through the first half of this deal at least. Can they continue to scout and develop pitching like they have over the years on the relative cheap? If the answer to that question is "yes" then they're going to be okay. If the cheap pipeline of pitching dries up however then the Twins might run into some real issues keeping a solid crew around Mauer despite the promised revenue engine that Target Field might become.
Robertson and Willis Today
I'm a little surprised the Tigers are bringing Willis back on short rest today, especially after watching him pitch through such obvious back pain and stiffness last Thursday. They probably want to get as many looks as they can at him; but I would have rather seen them wait and give him one of the Thur starts to see if he could go beyond 3 IPs and maybe get through 5. I'd also like to see if Robertson could get through 5 today. I don't know what the Tigers can really see in two more 3IP (if that's what they do) stints from these guys today - it's time to see which of the reclamation projects can get you 5 decent IPs in a start.
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Counting down to Opening Day
With Fu-Te Ni being the star of today's 3-0 shutout over the Phillies, its come time to ask.......Where does this club stand?
Well.....we can go with all the needed cliches' about Spring Training. "Its a small sample", "these games don't count", "wait until the real bullets are flying"....blah blah blah. But at the end of the day we can only look at the games that have been in front of us....we can only look at old stats so often....where are these Tigers and what do we know?
I think we know that there is a good chance that Austin Jackson will patrol CF pretty well and that Scott Sizemore will not be a slow leak in the infield's tire on defense either. These are big developments to me....Detroit's a pitching-based ballclub ostensibly...so you have to have some quality leather work behind them. Losing Polanco's "steady" presence worried some and Granderson's rep was at least being missed by others in CF.
I think we can make a good guess that we'll see more of the "Good Magglio" this rather then "First half '09 Magglio". He's hitting well and all accounts from those on the scene are pretty glowing.
I think we know that Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander will again be the pillars everything else is based around. Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer are left to support the Big Two.
I think we know that Adam Everett can't hit much....he didn't need to hit .077 to prove it to us!!
Its becoming evident to me that the Tigers have enough bullpen depth of different varieties that some kind of solid bullpen should emerge in due course. Valverde will get the primetime stat in "saves"......but guys like Fu-Te Ni, Ryan Perry, Phil Coke, Brad Thomas, Joel Zumaya, and Robbie Weinhardt will all be pitching very important innings at various point this year I think.
I believe the soft-underbelly of the Tigers----the back end of the rotation----has a bunch of guys that aren't lighting it up but at least the also aren't getting run off the mound most nights, showing that there might be some level of utility to be garnered there. Nate Robertson might have gas left in the tank.
We don't know how Brandon Inge's knee is going to hold up. Its good he says its achy but not the shooting pain he had last year....at least I'm trying to rationalize that its good.
We don't know, how could we possibly (?), what twists The Curious Case of Dontrelle Willis could have in store for us.
In a division that hasn't had a 90-game winner in two years, I think this club has a shot. Perhaps a sneaky-good shot...we'll see how the cuts come about here in the next few days and see how Leyland and Dombrowski see things. They would not have signed Jose Valverde (no matter my objections!) and Johnny Damon with their collective sights set on 3rd place....they must feel they can compete now, how they structure this 25-man roster to begin the pursuit should be very interesting to take note of in the next week or so.
Rotation
The way the rotation could be set up for this week:
Sat 03.20 - Bonine
Sun 03.21 - Verlander
Mon 03.22 - Robertson
Tue 03.23 - Scherzer
Wed - Off Day
Thu 03.25 - DH Split Squad - Bonderman and Willis
Fri 03.26 - Verlander
Willis would get an extra two days rest for his back before pitching on Thursday which would make sense - considering he looked like he needed to put in traction during that game Thu.
If Verlander goes on Friday 03.26 - he would then be set up on schedule for opening day - pitching the following Wed 03.31 - then opening day Monday 04.05.
Porcello could probably pitch in a minor league or simulated game Wed or Thu - or share one of the split squad outings on Thu.
If Bonderman and Willis each start Thu in the split squad - the Tigers would get one more look at each before cut down day the following week. If either one is going to make the team - they then would be set up to probably pitch one or both of the last two spring training games in Milwaukee before the season opens.
While it seems the Tigers might be hoping that it's Bonderman and Willis that make it - personally I think Robertson should be close to getting a spot. He was the most effective of the three at the end of last season, and he's been the most effective this spring. If he can give them 5 pretty good innings next week, I think he should be handed the first open rotation slot - and it should come down to Bonderman and Willis for the #5 slot - with Bonine in the wings - in case neither is worthy.
Sat 03.20 - Bonine
Sun 03.21 - Verlander
Mon 03.22 - Robertson
Tue 03.23 - Scherzer
Wed - Off Day
Thu 03.25 - DH Split Squad - Bonderman and Willis
Fri 03.26 - Verlander
Willis would get an extra two days rest for his back before pitching on Thursday which would make sense - considering he looked like he needed to put in traction during that game Thu.
If Verlander goes on Friday 03.26 - he would then be set up on schedule for opening day - pitching the following Wed 03.31 - then opening day Monday 04.05.
Porcello could probably pitch in a minor league or simulated game Wed or Thu - or share one of the split squad outings on Thu.
If Bonderman and Willis each start Thu in the split squad - the Tigers would get one more look at each before cut down day the following week. If either one is going to make the team - they then would be set up to probably pitch one or both of the last two spring training games in Milwaukee before the season opens.
While it seems the Tigers might be hoping that it's Bonderman and Willis that make it - personally I think Robertson should be close to getting a spot. He was the most effective of the three at the end of last season, and he's been the most effective this spring. If he can give them 5 pretty good innings next week, I think he should be handed the first open rotation slot - and it should come down to Bonderman and Willis for the #5 slot - with Bonine in the wings - in case neither is worthy.
Bonderman
Well.....Jeremy Bonderman looked like his old self last night. He struggled in the first inning! We're all set!
Certainly that's not quite the case yet...Bonderman wasn't sharp judging by the comments in the Detroit News and by looking at the box score. He limited the damage by getting a couple of Double-plays to wiggle out of trouble. However that, to me, is troubling as Bonderman isn't exactly known as a groundball machine. Unless his new split-finger pitch is going to make him into one. Overall he allowed 2 ER and 7 baserunners over 3 innings pitched....obviously that's too many baserunners to sustain any kind of success. He has two or three more starts in Spring Training to make a case for himself.
There is nothing more that I'd like to see than for Bonderman to get on track. Right now I'd put his Spring performance behind Nate Robertson's however. We'll see how the final two weeks unfold but right now the back of Detroit's rotation has the same questions today that it started with back in February. In reality there isn't enough data to judge these guys statistically....its all going to be up to Leyland and Rick Knapp to read the tea leaves and make the gut-decisions about who gets the first crack when the bell rings on April 5th.
Friday, March 19, 2010
The Royale with Cheese...
The Royals are getting a little notice for the deep pool of pitching they are building in their minor league system....it does look pretty good. So credit them for that....however quite a few of their top hopes are a ways off right now from being at the MLB level (depending on the path of ascendancy Aaron Crow takes).
But the overall state of their organization is best summed by seeing how little help is on the way for their big-league club on the immediate horizon. I'm pretty sure, not 100% but close, that only one Royals' ballplayer made his major league debut last year. (and the ONE was a 27-yr old LOOGY called up in September...in other words, a non-entity) In an also-ran season of nothingness they didn't really have anybody judged worthy of a look-see. That's mind-blowing to me.
The best part is that if you look over their roster it doesn't appear they'll have anyone on the cusp of debuting this year either unless the aforementioned Aaron Crow zooms thru the system and breaks down the door. Instead the Royals have "re-tooled" w/old guys on short deals. I suppose they are viewed as a bridge to the time the young talent arrives....someday.
So Rick Ankiel, Scott Pods, Jason Kendall join the likes of Willie Bloomquist, Jose Guillen, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Mitch Maier in trying to complement Greinke, Soria, and Butler. Sadly, given what the AL Central is, if somebody like Gil Meche has a big rebound and Luke Hochevar finally puts it together, maybe the Royals can push .500. If you can push .500 in this division you're suddenly able to kid yourself in late July you can contend.
Typically adding old washed up vets in a desperate attempt to get from 73-wins to 78-wins is a fool's play and waste of resources and playing time devoted to those players....those 5 wins don't typically add much to the bottom line when you're only winning at that level. But if pushing .500 can cause some irrational hope on the part of Royals fans that this club can contend then adding these vets might pay for itself. Maybe...
But the overall state of their organization is best summed by seeing how little help is on the way for their big-league club on the immediate horizon. I'm pretty sure, not 100% but close, that only one Royals' ballplayer made his major league debut last year. (and the ONE was a 27-yr old LOOGY called up in September...in other words, a non-entity) In an also-ran season of nothingness they didn't really have anybody judged worthy of a look-see. That's mind-blowing to me.
The best part is that if you look over their roster it doesn't appear they'll have anyone on the cusp of debuting this year either unless the aforementioned Aaron Crow zooms thru the system and breaks down the door. Instead the Royals have "re-tooled" w/old guys on short deals. I suppose they are viewed as a bridge to the time the young talent arrives....someday.
So Rick Ankiel, Scott Pods, Jason Kendall join the likes of Willie Bloomquist, Jose Guillen, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Mitch Maier in trying to complement Greinke, Soria, and Butler. Sadly, given what the AL Central is, if somebody like Gil Meche has a big rebound and Luke Hochevar finally puts it together, maybe the Royals can push .500. If you can push .500 in this division you're suddenly able to kid yourself in late July you can contend.
Typically adding old washed up vets in a desperate attempt to get from 73-wins to 78-wins is a fool's play and waste of resources and playing time devoted to those players....those 5 wins don't typically add much to the bottom line when you're only winning at that level. But if pushing .500 can cause some irrational hope on the part of Royals fans that this club can contend then adding these vets might pay for itself. Maybe...
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