Me: "Antiques Roadshow isn't on tonight....Iowa Public Television has college wrestling on."
The Effervescent One: "What's college wrestling?"
Me: "Take a look...those two guys are on the mat wrestling. What do you think?"
TEO: "Why are they messin' around....I'd just punch him the face and be done."
Me: "I appreciate your desire for efficiency."
So.....its probably worth another post someday on Iowa's abnormal love of wrestling to note that PBS in Iowa televises wrestling instead of "Frontline" or "Masterpiece Theater". But what struck me was how happy my 7-yr old daughter, The Effervescent One (TEO), made me by sizing up that situation and figuring out there was a lot of unnecessary stuff going on there. A simple punch in the face would solve a lot of things instead of the rolling around touching each other in the nether-regions in the name of competition.
It got me to thinking about baseball.....because lots of things make me think about baseball....what would be the equivalent of a punch in the nose on the diamond? I guess it has to be homeruns. The late, great Ernie Harwell always noted the Tigers needed some "instant runs" and what better way for instant runs than a shot worthy of Ernie launching into a "Looooooong Gone!" homer call. The '68 Tigers hit their fair share, Cecil Fielder put on his show, and the '06 Tigers had a fairly deep crew of guys who could put one in the seats.
Where will the Tigers find their power this year? This question was on my mind when considering what decisions the Tigers would make about their bench situation this year. The Tigers had one player hit more than 15 homers in 2010. Miguel Cabrera had a great season but the Tigers were a bit deficient when it came to delivering that offensive punch in the face last year. "Fearsome" was not a word to describe the Tigers' attack very often. So it would seem like a good move to add a little power around the margins wherever it can be found.
The Tigers have a decision to make this year with how they will construct their bench. It appears that 4 outfielders are vying for 2 backup spots. Clete Thomas, Casper Wells, Brennan Boesch, and spring phenom Andy Dirks. With Don Kelly and Ramon Santiago looking like the backup infielders, which two of the outfield guys are going to venture north come the end of March to backup Austin Jackson, Magglio Ordonez, and Ryan Raburn? From this vantage point I just believe that Jim Leyland needs to add some power-potential wherever he can find it. (and OBP too...but his quotes regarding OBP aren't very re-assuring, so I'll concentrate on power and hope he agrees there at least!) Boesch is not the guy who looked Mantle-esque for two solid months last year....but he's also not likely to be the clueless windmill he showed down the stretch either. He has legit left-handed power. There is little question of this. If he can learn to lay off a breaking ball and start to control the strike zone he's a valuable commodity on the bench if he can also adjust to a part-time role. He has shown the ability is inside that tall lean frame....can the Tigers help him harness it on at least a semi-regular basis?
The other choice for me is Casper Wells. Wells also has some sock in his bat and he also is perfectly capable of playing all three outfield positions very well. His OBP track record for most of his minor league career is fairly equivalent to both Thomas and Dirks. Wells battled injury and posted poor numbers in AAA last year before playing pretty well in an exceedingly small sample in Detroit. But looking at Wells time in AA-Erie it appears that he has the skills to get on base and hit for some power. He does strike out a ton though....will big league pitchers eventually carve him up? Could be...but I'd give him the first shot and see what he can produce. If nothing else he is a good defender to put in place of Ordonez in the late innings.
Thomas and Dirks are both decent bets to see some time in Detroit this summer barring a trade here in Spring Training. However they are very similar players. Grinders...lefty bats with limited ceilings and not a ton of power. (though Dirks showed a bit more last year...perhaps he's growing into more than he showed early after getting drafted from Wichita State)
Beyond the bench contingent, it will be worth noting how Dave Dombrowski's off-season moves play out in the power department. Its a safe bet that if you pinned down a Front-Office Type from the Tigers they are betting on Victor Martinez being at least a 20+ homer guy (despite his power outage from the left side of late...a bit troubling until he proves its an aberration). Ryan Raburn has shown homerun power in the past and this is his shot at a full-time gig. Is 25 homers out of the realm of possibility? I don't think so. How many games can Magglio Ordonez compete in this year? Is he mostly a doubles hitter now? Can he find the seats 20+ times? I'm less sure of this....but I do believe Ordonez can continue to at least post his usual .370-ish OBP. Otherwise it boils down to Miguel Cabrera. When he's pitched to, he's awe-inspiring. Let's leave his "issues" aside for right now...he was the offense in '10. Matt Klaassen at Fangraphs said the other day (and I agree) that there really is no greater drop-off in baseball between a team's best hitter and its second best hitter l than there is in Detroit. Will anyone pitch to Miguel Cabrera this year? For those who believe in lineup "protection", is V-Mart the right guy? Certainly we all saw how Cabrera was neutralized during Boesch's huge slump last year when Leyland stubbornly stuck it out w/Boesch in the 5-hole. (not that there were a ton of alternatives) Intentional walks went way up for Cabrera....and the strategy worked far more often than the Intentional Walk should work for the Tigers opposition.
Other possible sources of power include the aging Brandon Inge and his creaky knees, the enigmatic Jhonny Peralta (in "The Best Shape of His Life!" whoo-hoo!), Alex Avila, and maybe Scott Sizemore. Inge has hit 25+ homers a couple of times in his career and Peralta is being banked on for his magic RBI-skills (puke) so that means they must be hoping he knocks a few in the seats.
So how many haymakers can the Tigers throw and land punches in the opposition's face next year via the homer? I'm betting they can beat last year's 152-HR total. I do believe they'll get a surprise season from someone like Raburn or Boesch and that V-Mart's 20 or 22 homers will add to the total as well. Mark down Cabrera for 35 minimum if not 40. All in all I'm going to say the Tigers have a good shot hitting 175+ homers in '11 and add a boost to their offense. If the pitching staff holds up its end of the bargain and a defense that has Twinkletoes Peralta at shortstop is at least passable, I think the Tigers have the power this year on offense to keep up with the Twins and White Sox in order to have their shot come September.
The Tigers won't be vintage George Foreman fiercely throwing punches into the grill of Joe Frazier.....but I think they'll throw enough of those punches that TEO would think they could take down the average college wrestler.
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