Small Victory.....Steep Cost

***WARNING...this post will go into issues centered around the MLB Draft. I'm aware that to many folks this makes the eyes glaze-over. Unless you're a prospect junkie or part of that small, yet fierce, tribe known as college baseball fans, the MLB Draft is mostly about a bunch of guys you've never heard of and probably never will. Move on to another post if its not your cup of tea!***

In Game 162 of the 2010 season the Tigers faced off with the Baltimore Orioles to put a wrap on another campaign. The Orioles were firmly ensconced in the lower depths of the AL East despite having played a couple of months of inspired baseball under Buck Showalter. The Tigers had wilted over the course of the season's second half after topping out at 48-37 and first place in early July. They stood at 80-81 as the first pitch was tossed. Was I watching? Sadly, yes. My life includes taking some pride in watching my club play out the string.

On the surface, little was at stake. The "pride" in finishing at .500 was something for the Tigers to play for I suppose. However in reality....would anyone really feel better about the season at 81 wins over 80? On some level I can see that and probably have felt that way in the past. But around MLB that day, a Perfect Storm was taking shape.......could the Tigers take advantage of it? Did they know a loss was the way to do it?

While Brandon Inge was hitting a key homer and Daniel Schlereth was whetting our appetites for the next season with a solid multi-inning outing where he "earned" the win, all the right clubs were winning/losing around the league to affect the draft order for this June's Rule 4 Draft in considerable fashion. The Oakland Athletics won to move their record to 81-81. The Dodgers, Marlins, and Angels all won as well to move their respective records to 80-82. A simple Tigers loss to leave them at 80-82 would have put the Tigers ahead of the all these teams in the 2011 draft due to tie-breakers. However the victory in this meaningless game put the Tigers behind every one of them with the 19th pick in the draft. A loss would have vaulted them over the 4 teams in question plus ahead of comp-pick to the Brewers.....this would have put the Tigers picking 14th overall.

Big deal you might say. What could possibly be worth the worry? Well....winning that game was like kid winning the ticket for the Titanic before it shipped off (Okay...okay...not THAT bad...nobody is going to die over draft order....but allow me some internet hyperbole)....because winning gave the Tigers the very first unprotected first round draft pick for Type A free agent compensation in the upcoming off-season. Therefore the Tigers were in danger of losing this pick if they were to sign a Type A free agent. (like Victor Martinez perhaps? Well yes, precisely like Victor Martinez)

Coupled with all of this action on the field was the continuing hype (which has not abated) of how loaded the 2011 Draft was shaping up to be. Best draft in years by the accounts of most folks who follow these sort of things for a living. College ace pitchers? Check...a bunch of 'em. Big hitting corner infielders? Check. Big armed high school phenoms? You bet. With apologies to the person that answered a chat question from me who I cannot remember....(Bryan Smith? Kevin Goldstein? Sorry...don't recall now) the quote from this mystery writer was "The 60th pick in '11 draft will have comparable talent to the 30th pick in the '10 draft." This is the pick the Tigers were in danger of losing on that day......and winning a 4-2 meaningless ballgame did just that.

Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski acted in November to sign Martinez. The pick is now property of the Boston Red Sox. The 14th pick, had the Tigers lost, is now owned by the Florida Marlins. The Tigers first pick in this talent bonanza you ask? Think "Randy Moss".....#84. (the Rays have 13 of the first 90 picks to the Tigers lone selection btw....I love the Rays! What a great bunch in charge down there. I don't know how many of those picks they'll sign but the flood of talent will likely sustain the great work they've done the last few years)

This will be the second straight season the Tigers have forfeited the #19 overall pick in the draft. They signed Jose Valverde last year before inking V-Mart. Yes, the Tigers ended up claiming to have gotten a guy way up on their draft board anyhow in Nick Castellanos.....but the Tigers are low in the organizational rankings right now and this doesn't seem likely to change by giving up first round picks. Especially for mere Closers and 32+ year old Catcher/DH guys. Do you have to apologize for signing good players like this? Perhaps not....but there is a cost associated with the moves beyond the simple contract terms that many fans only take into account.

Debating whether or not Dombrowski should be losing his early picks is one thing and probably the subject of another post. The point here was that a seemingly nice little moment....a win to wrap up the season....finishing .500 instead of the alternative.....getting a nice performance from a possible key young pitcher for the future....really cost the Tigers the chance to bring aboard a very solid young talent in this upcoming draft. There is little question that the player selected at #14 this year will have a very solid pedigree. Perhaps Matt Barnes from UConn a righty starting pitcher, or Jack Bradley a good looking OF'er from South Carolina. Or maybe the Tigers select prep phenom Bubba Starling and throw Mike Ilitch's check book in his face and sign this incredible athlete away from his college commitment at Nebraska. We'll never know what the Tigers might have done.....

It was hard to root against the Tigers that day. Goes against one's nature. Despite his pronounced flaws, I'm a Brandon Inge fan from way back. I smiled while I shook my head as that homer he hit flew into the cheap seats at Oriole Park. Perhaps in the long run it won't matter and will be just a footnote in history. I do believe the Tigers have a legit playoff run in them during the upcoming corridor of the '11 thru '14 seasons while they have Verlander, Scherzer, and Porcello under team control with Jacob Turner and Andy Oliver coming along. If that happens many won't care the Tigers missed on picking some faceless amateur prospect. But, dammit, I REALLY wanted to see who Tigers' draft director David Chadd was going to pursue in the first round of THIS draft when so much talent was bubbling up. This is the kind of year that a first round pick might really yield a guy that can change fortunes.

When is Opening Day? I need some baseball that counts so I can move on!