Willis leads Tigers to series win!

I enjoyed listening the Minnesota radio broadcast today and then watching Willis highlights online. Gladden and Gordon were very complimentary of Dontrelle as you can imagine. He was baffling a few batters out there today.

Was it a skeleton lineup for the Twins that Dontrelle was containing? Sure. So what? The guys the Twins had in the lineup were getting paid to play as well and I don't think you have to apologize for winning. Dontrelle was good enough to win today and that's what matters.

I said it after his outing in Anaheim and I'll say it again....Willis just looks like he's a little ticked off out there...he's not looking bewildered like before. Perhaps now that he feels competitive again the juices are flowing. Its fun to watch.

The MLB blackout rules in IA/NV stink, but I have to say I enjoyed listening to radio guys describe Dontrelle's effort. After seeing him in person pitch in KC this year and watching him on the tube again against the Angels, I found it entertaining to hear how radio guys were trying to describe his funky motion and his histrionics on the mound. It sounded like John Gordon was really enjoying watching Willis even though the Twins were losing.

Looooooong Gone!

Well....that was a nice ending to a ballgame. The Rangers put their young flamethrower into the game, Neftali Feliz, and his stuff gets beaten around like Pony League mop up pitcher.

Miguel Cabrera goes deep into the right-center for a mammoth opposite field shot. Impressive power. I could riff on that for a while....but suffice it to say, that guy is good and I'm glad he's on our side.

Brandon Inge has been a doubles maching this year and he indeed banged out his 9th tonight. But it was his two homers that played a key role in the outcome...both homers extended a lead and really put the club in good position to win.

A few words on Jeremy Bonderman....I thought he was good. He had allowed two runs through 5 IP and then retired the first two batters in the 6th. However he ran into trouble from there when Hamilton and Vlad both singled and then David Murphy ripped a two-run double. No matter...tonight's start was pretty solid for Bonderman despite allowing 4 ER over 5.2 IP. He had good command and generated more groundball than he had been. This is a start he can build off going forward.

Bring on those Twins....they are resting in Detroit tonight while the Tigers fly home tonight...but that's okay, its a big series and I think they'll be ready to rumble this week.

Great comeback....tough loss

Great 2-out rally in the 9th last night...that was very fun obviously and even better to do it against a guy throwing All-World Gas like Neftali Feliz.

But a couple of walks in the bottom half of the inning soured the whole experience. Ni and Perry are a couple of young guys still feeling their way....these things are going to happen.

Elvis Andrus wins the ballgame on "Elvis Night" at the ballpark in TX. Apropos I suppose. (in fact I missed Boesch's first MLB hit last night because the stupid Texas TV broadcast had some numbnut TV guy dressed up like Elvis interviewing former Ranger Jim Sundberg for some upcoming promotion....that ticked me off! LOL)

I thought Max Scherzer looked pretty good overall. He couldn't solve Vladimir Guerrero all night and that cost him...but he went 7 IP, allowing only 5 hits, 2 walks, and struck out 7. That's a solid outing. The obscure error by Avila hurt....he broke a rule (its a dumb rule...but what can you do?) and the Tigers paid a price. I had just seen another catcher do that on some MLBN highlights about a week ago.

Neftali Feliz gets one of my favorite statistical oddities....he gets credit for a Blown Save and he gets credit for "the Win". HA! Another further discredit to "Wins" having much meaning for judging pitchers.

Another installment of "The Dontrelle Chronicles" tonight....should be fun, it always is to me. Its like the baseball equivalent of a high-wire act in some ways. He stayed on the wire nicely in his last outing....can he do it again? The Tigers have lit up Scott Feldman like Independence Day Fireworks in the past....let's hope for that tonight. It would be interesting to see what Dontrelle could with a lead for once.

Comeback in Anaheim

Certainly last night's win in Anaheim had several "heroes"....Cabrera, Kelly, Santiago, the bullpen, among others. But Jeremy Bonderman got the job done. Merely a quality start when its all said and done.....but he allowed 3 runs in the first inning and didn't look good doing it. It could have been a short night. However Bonderman did not throw in the towel. He competed.....a sign of being a pro, no longer the impetuous kid. I was very happy for him last night to log those final five innings. Great work. Its debatable how his stuff is faring and maybe the end is nearer than everyone hopes for Bonderman....but last night was gutsy, nobody can take that away from him.

By the book

Bases loaded...Royals up two runs...7th inning....2-out....Miguel Cabrera due up. What do you do? If you're Trey Hillman you can either A) Bring in The Mexicutioner, Joakim Soria to quell the uprising because the game is obviously in the balance. Or B) You can bring in anybody else from the bullpen that has shown nothing but incompetence thus far.

Hillman predictably chose "B". Thank you sir. Juan Cruz shrinks away from pitching to Cabrera and Carlos Guillen lights him up with the game winning double.

The Royals are not a good baseball team. They are lucky to be in position in the late innings perhaps 3 times per week on average. Some of those opportunities will include times when they don't need Soria for a save opportunity. All too often Soria ends up pitching an inning in blowouts to "get his work in". Today was TRULY a spot where his skill level could have turned the tide in that ballgame. Juan Cruz is not as good as Joakim Soria....on nearly any day of the season.

Of course Cabrera could have gotten to Soria for the second time in a week....but if you're Trey Hillman I think you gotta go for it there w/your best guy against Cabrera/Guillen. "Saving" Soria for the 9th didn't help the Royales very much today.

Game 5 Impressions - Tigers 4 Tribe 2

Sat out in the RF Grandstand seats yesterday. Took the whole family plus my 20 yr old daughter's boy friend - who had never been to professional baseball game. He's football guy - and had lots of questions about how far everything was from each other - like the bases are 90 feet apart - so that means 30 yrd sprints for baserunners and the all the way around the bags is the length of a football field from the back of each end zone to end zone. I'm not sure if he came away impressed with baseball or not - but I didn't come away impressed with ... nevermind...

The Chinese New Year pregame party was... bizarre. It was 15 minutes - and it felt like it went on for two hours with same song just blaring in our ears. My kids wanted to see a battle between the two different Tae Chi clans - but it didn't happen. I'm sure the Chinese in attendance appreciated Paws getting into the Tae Chi act. The best part was seeing Mags trying to warm up and do his sprints around the dragon dance guys.

OK the game - Bonderman was terrific. He was completely in command against a Tribe lineup that includes several tough LH sticks, so that was great to see. He ran into some trouble with the 3-5 in the 4th, but limited the damage and finished strong. Velocity was good, and changing speeds produced several bad swings. Couldn't have asked for anything better from him for a first start of a new season.

The bullpen set up nicely behind him, and Leyland pulled all the right strings. Having three lefties in the pen is really going to be huge against teams like the Yankees and Twins this year. Perry has taken his game to another level so far. This pen has a chance to be a mid70s% pen at protecting leads like it was in 2006.

Avila did a nice job blocking pitches and calling the game. He had a good all around game reaching base three times as well.

Mags aggressively turning on fastballs again is a great sight to see.

We had two Inge Haters sitting in front of us that were silenced by his sterling two way performance (three times reaching base and his typical game changing defense). One of the main differnces between the Tigers and the Tribe is - the Tigers have a 3b that turns hits into outs and the Tribe has a 3b that turns outs into hits.

Sizemore had three positive ABs (only got a Sac Fly RBI to show for it) and was solid in the field again. Jackson stung the ball a couple times early in the game, but came away with an 0-5 with 2 Ks. Jackson is now at 1 W - 8 Ks for the season. It won't surprise me if Sizemore eventually takes the lead off slot this year with Jackson moving down in the lineup. Jackson is showing tremendous raw hitting talent - so far this year (very impressed with ability to hit to the opp field gap) - but he's not really a contact hitter - and his his W to K ratio is going to have to improve to stay in the lead off position. No surprise Sizemore is showing more htting competency and bat control - though the hits are not falling for him yet.

35K for the 2nd game of the season - nice. If fans are disappointed by the off-season or the direction of this team, you wouldn't know it by the 80K they've pushed through the turnstyles so far. Great crowd - great weather - well pitched and played game by the home team. Pitching and defense. This team has been all about it so far, and the results couldn't be much better. So far, the Tigers and Twins look to be the class the AL Central - again.

A new hope....

Jacob Turner made his debut in West Michigan today. Not bad....5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 7 K, 0 BB......now THAT'S a debut!

28 Hours in Kansas City

Hit the road around 8:45am on Wednesday morning and had a quiet ride to Kansas City w/one stop in scenic Lamoni, IA. (Lamoni means "blink and you'll miss it" in some Native American language I imagine) Rolled into KC just before noon, hit some construction on the bridge over the Missouri River. Found my way over to the ballpark and bought a ticket and a few things for the kid at the souvenir shop.

Went to the hotel across the street and got a room. Hooked up the computer to the WiFi to check email....three minutes later the screen lights up like a Christmas Tree with virus warnings...everything is shutting down and the only thing is a link to pay for a "Security Upgrade"...yeah right. Luckily I saw a joint called "KC Help Desk" a couple of blocks away. They have been seeing this virus a lot...so the computer was spending the night w/them and spending some of my money to get it fixed. Oh well....

Met Tom Gage at Subway near the stadium. Had a very nice conversation for about a half-hour talking about the Tigers, travel, and whatever else. Great guy. He had to get to the stadium just after 3pm for a 7:10pm ballgame...

Took a ride downtown to check out The Power&Light District. Looked like a fun place w/lots of shops, bars, and eateries. Had a latte' and walked briefly. All afternoon the weather was great...breezy but sunny. Things were due to change.

Walked from the hotel to the ballpark at around 5:30pm. Saw plenty of Tigers fans...good representation. Jerseys spotted: Inge, Sheff, Monroe, Gibby, Cabrera, Verlander, Lolich...maybe a couple of others.

Strong wind blowing in from LF and the temps were dropping fast. I watched a lot of BP and nobody hit one out to LF. Also watched Valverde in the bullpen popping the mitt.

At 6:30pm I met up with a fellow poster at the Detroit News Tigers Forum that goes by the name "Kevets" near the George Brett statue on the RF plaza. Had a beer and talked about the club...ended up watching the game together. Kevets is a great guy to watch a game with. Hope to do it again sometime.

The rain started just before the first pitch. We went up to the seats under the upper deck to avoid the rain. Most folks did in the modest crowd of Royals fans as well.

I really enjoyed watching Max Scherzer. He had nice velocity and was "effectively wild"....I had no problems with him plunking a couple of batters to keep them on their toes. (of course if he'd allowed a few runs he'd have just been "wild" and not effectively so) Scherzer is lankier in person than I've thought he's looked on TV. The Mad Max highlight of the night was when he struck out DeJesus w/the bases juiced. DeJesus was ticked and Max was PUMPED UP walking off the mound....great emotion, very cool to see.

Luke Hochevar was on his game. It was a perfect night for a guy w/a sinker like him. Nothing airborne was going anywhere in the wet and cold wind. The Tigers hit a couple of hard liners by Inge but they were right at outfielders. (I thought Inge was swinging the bat very well both days)

Joakim Soria came in to protect the lead and fanned the first three batters he faced before locking horns with Miguel Cabrera. He had two strikes and Miguel fouled off several pitches (we had moved down to seats by the dugout several innings prior to this when the rain stopped btw, so we were right near the action). Then Cabrera finally launched that fly down the line...it was tough to see it hit the foul pole and the fans were in disbelief for their Royals after having victory in hand and Soria blowing folks away. When Cabrera hit the ball it went so high it didn't look at first like it would go the distance...(looking on ESPN later it doesn't appear on camera to go even close to the high trajectory it was on...TV distorts that)

Coke pitched pretty well and then the Tigers got the lead off of Farnsworth. I didn't care for starting the runners at all and Farnsworth smelled it out to quell the rally. Farnsworth is so hit-able I just didn't see the need to play games and start runners. Maybe the Tigers wouldn't have scored anyhow...but we'll never know.

Then Valverde came in....and it was over fast. Three batters...three hard hit balls...two runs....ballgame. Sizemore had the error but it didn't matter...it would have been 2nd/3rd w/0-out...with Valverde getting pelted mercilessly the game was circling the drain, Valverde wasn't going to pitch out of that.

So that was that....shook hand w/Kevets as he went off to find the person who was picking him up and I walked back to the hotel. Day one done.

Day Two. Got up around 7:20am. Took a walk around Arrowhead Stadium and The K. Went to Denny's for pancakes. Checked out of the hotel. Picked up the computer from the help desk shop. Running fast now. (Good work KC Help Desk!) Headed over to the ballpark. Had some ribs at the BBQ joint in the stadium. Solid but unremarkable...I didn't get to head to Arthur Bryant's BBQ on this trip...its KC's legendary Rib-joint. Had it last year...it was awesome.

I watched Dontrelle Willis warm up and chatted with a Tigers' fan from Grand Rapids, MI. He was in town for the whole series visiting his daughter. Dontrelle was missing low a lot in the bullpen but looked okay. He wears Air Jordans. Watching Dontrelle pitch today was fun. He wasn't great and he only cracked 90/91 a few times. But he competed and he stayed alive. The DP's were HUGE and I don't know how often you can rely on those to bail you out. However only a few of the hits off of him were really squared up by the Royals and he only walked a couple (which amazed me after he opened the festivities with a 4-pitch walk). Austin Jackson made a nice running catch in CF against Billy Butler to help out D-Train as well. It will be fun to see if Dontrelle can walk the tightrope against a better lineup than the Royals'. But, hey, he got it done today. I watched him from right behind homeplate in about the 9th row.

Magglio's homer was hit well and the guy is swinging a nice bat right now. Impressive. Inge as well. Jackson has an athletic presence...his swing might be a tad long but he has some bat speed. Damon didn't look great but he drew a nice walk to lead off the first three run inning today.

By the 8th inning I had moved down into rightfield because I was parked near that exit. It was fortuitous because I was only about 40 feet from where Cabrera hit his homer into the Royals' bullpen. It looked like it may have skipped off the top of the fence but if it didn't it could not have cleared the fence by any more than an inch. The wind helped that drive a good bit. Great moment. Royals fans were yelling at DeJesus for not making a better effort to leap for that ball.

Ryan Perry didn't look good at the start but he limited the damage to a run, so give him a mulligan. The next three run rally sewed up the game....and I was out of there....I figured Valverde could wrap things up. This did give me a chance to listen to HOF announcer Denny Matthews on KC radio. He's their Ernie in KC. He's good...not as good as Ernie, but very listenable.

I also listened to Trey Hillman after the game. I will be stunned if he's still on the job managing KC by Memorial Day. He sounded defensive and frustrated. He blamed their weak bullpen on the payroll league wide (never mind there are plenty of decent bullpens built on the cheap elsewhere) and he said he expected media nit-picking to start. He's toast....

The funniest thing was listening to a radio guy who follows the club talk about not even knowing who Luis Mendoza was as he was blowing the lead for KC today. The guy hadn't heard the Royals picked him up from the Rangers for cash last Friday. Too funny...he was lamenting about how weak the bullpen was when some long-haired dude you'd never heard of was trying to get them thru the 8th inning with a lead.

So.....a good trip to KC. Almost saw two wins...froze on Wednesday, enjoyed the sun on Thursday. A couple of homers, a couple of good starts by the rotation, a couple of 101-mph heaters from Zumaya, some good work by Austin Jackson, a ninth-inning game-saving homer followed by another late-inning rally the next day. Yes, a blown save...but you can't have everything. A good start to the season...but the Royals are pretty bad outside a couple of players like Greinke, Hochevar, Soria, and Butler...bigger tests will be coming soon.

Game 2 - KC 3 Det 2 - Game Impressions

When Cabrera got picked off 2nd base, I had a pretty bad feeling...

Crazy Game. We saw a lot.

Sounds like Scherzer was outstanding. I have to say "sounds like" because some goofy intramural club sport was on Fox Sports Detroit for much of the night instead. Isn't baseball supposed to be "America's" pasttime?

We've seen plenty to like in Austin Jackson so far this spring, and he showed some real long term potential for forward steps in the plate patience department in Lakeland. But what happens in Lakeland stays in Lakeland. Yesterday, in contact hitting situations where he needed to lay off bad pitches and put the ball in play, he looked pretty bad. 0 Walks and 4 Ks in the first two games. An at bat where he was up 2-0 with a runner on third and less than 2 outs and swung wildly at 3 straight balls? Let's hope that doesn't continue.

Scott Sizemore picked up his first dreaded "E" for the year when the ball slipped out of his hands on a cut 4 allowing the winning run to score (of course Jose Valverde giving up rockets to three straight batters probably did much more to cost us the game than the ball slipping out of Sizemore's throwing hand). I don't think I've ever seen two goofy situation cut 4 plays like that in extra innings (combined with Podsednik just throwing to the cutoff man instead of through the cut off man when Kelly scored).

We also saw that the Tigers lefties in the pen are going to have to be counted on to get some RH hitters out - probably - since Leyland is going to save Bonine for long relief situations. They all did OK yesterday though Ni was shaky.

The story of the offense until the Cabrera HR was - Damon, Mags, Cabrera, and Guillen all doing nothing on the same night - which is never going to be good for this team. Cabrera's HR was a story in itself though - unbelievable at bat off Soria. That's why he's a franchise player. Then his getting picked off 2nd base in the 11th is why is he's a franchise player that makes us shake our heads sometimes.

So the rookies have to rebound from their first little taste of big league failure - Valverde has to put a rough start as closer for his new team behind him quickly - and Leyland has to give the ball to Dontrelle Willis today with the Tigers hoping to come home for opening day 2-1 and in first place - not 1-2 and thinking about at least one game that they let get away.

Today should be interesting.

A Good Start

Trailing Zack Greinke in the middle innings isn't the most enviable spot to be in but the Royals' bullpen is a magic elixir to what ailed the Tigers today. They did a fair job against Greinke and eeked out a couple of runs, but it was a walk by Scott Sizemore against Robinson Tejada that opened the floodgates to a big rally that put this game away for the Tigers.

Great bullpen work followed up a fair outing by Justin Verlander. Joel Zumaya and Ryan Perry were throwing BB's out there today and if we're going to see plenty of that kind of stuff this year its going to be a good year. (let's see it against another club besides the toothless Royals)

Miguel Cabrera came to play ball today. Stellar in the field and solid at the plate, he set the tone in some respects for the Tigers. If Cabrera wasn't the tone-setter then Johnny Damon was a good candidate today for the designation as well. I've been very excited to see what kind of dimension Damon may add to the top of the order..well...today was nice first step.

Even with Justin Verlander pitching its always a bit of bonus to walk off the field victorious on a day when Zack Greinke is pitching well. 161 to go.

Keys for the 2010 Tigers

Keys on offense: Damon, Mags, and Guillen - The Tigers will go as far offensively as the old dudes can carry them. Damon and Mags looked terrific right now. Guillen creaky. Ryan Raburn can help pick up the slack coming off the bench for support as well, but the Tigers offense can rebound in a big way if those three guys perform to their career standards.

Keys to the starting pitching: Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer - All eyes were on the back end of the rotation throughout the spring to see who would make the team, but now eyes need to focus on the big guns. First and foremost - the Tigers cannot be any good if Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer aren't as good as they were last year. At least, two of those three have to have big years for this team to contend. You worry about the 09 workload on Verlander having an ill effect this year. You worry about Porcello's still tender age and avoiding a sophomore slump. You worry about Scherzer switching leagues and improving his performance versus left hand hitters which he'll see plenty of from American League contenders. On the positive side, the Tigers almost can't help but get more support from the back end of the rotation than they did last year.

Keys on defense: Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore. If they play like they did this spring, the Tigers will be just fine defensively. Up the middle defense was a strength of the team for most of last year (although in the last month Granderson had a few high profile uncharacteristic miscues and Polanco couldn't keep a ball not hit right at him in the infield). The left side of the infield will be a strength again - as will catching with Laird controlling the other teams running game. If Jackson makes the seamless transition that people expect from him defensively in CF and Sizemore continues to play like he did in spring training, defense will again be an overall team strength for the Tigers.

Keys to the Bullpen - Ryan Perry and Joel Zumaya. The Tigers bullpen should be good. Valverde solidifies the back end; and in front of him, the Tigers have RHs that get RHs out and LHs that get LHs out - so Leyland should be able to mix and match well. In Perry and Zumaya though, the Tigers bullpen has a chance to go from good to great, if these guys can live up to their potential as dominant set ups v RH or LH pitching. The Tigers should get back to having a pen that protects leads at 70% or better (after last years set up shakiness had them at 63%), and it could be mid70s type pen if everything falls into place. That could mean 2-4 wins in the win column.

At the end of the day, I'm most worried about the starting pitching. Verlander has been mostly terrific in the last four years, but his 08 showed he's capable of a clunker season if he's not 100% right physically. Coming back strong from last years heavy work load on him will be a test for him. Porcello's talent is almost unfathomable - how can a kid this young be this good? Few 21 yr olds in baseball carry as big of a burden as he does, but he seems to have the shoulders for it. Incredible. It worries me having two RH pitchers in Scherzer and Bonderman who struggle to get LH hitters out in a division where contenders the Twins and Tribe send up some of the games best LH hitters. The Tigers pitching should be bad news head to head for the White Sox all right handed line up though. I was pretty confident that at least one of the four Tigers reclamation projects would rebound this year, but since they decided to just give Nate Robertson away to boost the confidence of Willis and Bonderman - my confidence in that group has been slashed by 25-33%. I don't rule out Galarraga contributing at some point though, and I like what I see from Willis and Bonderman enough to think we're going to get more from the back end of the rotation than we did last year.

In short, I think the offense will be better if the old dudes hold up - the defense will be mostly solid again - and the bully should be better and could be a real strength. If the Tigers get starting pitching, I think they'll be right there with the Twins to the end in the division again.

Tigers in 2010

Off-season: Mostly good moves in my opinion. It was time shake things up. Last year's overachieving ballclub was not a mere tweak or two away from being a realistic contender. Adding younger talent and committing to younger players on hand makes a ton of sense. Paring some additional payroll while the other major "bad" contracts melt away this year was good planning as well.

Brad Thomas might be a quiet gem of a move. Adding Scherzer and Schlereth made sense. Austin Jackson has a high enough ceiling to take the chance on. Phil Coke is probably just a guy with a good name for one-liners but only league-average production. Signing Johnny Damon was a good gamble. Cheap-ish short commitment, provides a skill at the top of the order that was missing previously.

I did not agree with the Jose Valverde signing. He is a very nice pitcher and I do believe he'll play well for Detroit. That isn't the issue. The commitment of giving a 65 inning role player the most money of any reliever in free agency and sacrificing the first round draft pick was a major over-commitment from Dombrowski. It won't appear such on the surface if Valverde stays healthy and notches 35 saves...but it was nonetheless. I also have major misgivings about the Nate Robertson Trade. I do not believe in that move. Nate was already a sunk cost and I do not believe his disappointment in starting in the bullpen would have hurt the team. I think he would have been decent insurance...in baseball's mysterious ways lefty pitchers can resurrect and reinvent themselves occasionally. I like Nate's chances a bit more than Willis'.

Deletions: The biggest gamble was letting Curtis Granderson go in a trade. He could certainly post some big seasons in New York's lineup and in their little park. Dombrowski's judgement really to the test here as the Granderson/A-Jax comparisons will be made. I believe DD had fair reasons for the trade in the end. Granderson was only going to get more expensive every year and he had regressed two years in a row...one more regression meant not being able to trade him for the talent the Tigers did get in return most likely.

Placido Polanco was a likeable little fellow who had 1.5 great years in Detroit and a couple of modest years. The Tigers had few expiring contracts this year at positions where they also had a player being groomed to play that was judged ready. However Second Base was one spot where this fell together....so it was a pretty easy call. Polanco landed softly on a contender with a ludicrously long and generous contract...I'm happy for him.

Fernando Rodney was a favorite player of mine (as was Granderson)....I'll miss watching him pitch. But he's a streaky reliever who felt he could do better elsewhere, so be it. I was also a major proponent of Brandon Lyon being signed (and not being cut when the wolves were howling over him to axed in April)...but he received the longest contract of any reliever in Free Agency....more power to him but the Tigers had no reason to match or beat that offer. Good luck in Houston.

Spring Training: Lots to like....several young guys showed promise and a few vets looked solid once again. However good Springs mean about as much as rough Springs. Everybody starts over on Monday.

The Tiger' Ceiling: I think you can make a case for 90+ wins if a lot of things go right. The top 3 in the rotation carrying some serious weight, Bondo having a presentable year, Magglio playing well for six months, Cabrera stepping up one more notch, A-Jax and Sizemore progressing throughout the year, Perry coming of age....and so on.

Inhibiting Factors: The Tigers starting pitchers at the top of their rotation all had big workload bounces last year will they comeback strong?

Is Carlos Guillen cooked? Or can he rebound with decent year?

Will the rookies contribute or will there be a revolving door at those two spots? I'm confident in them both, but nothing is proven yet, it could go either way. The kind of gamble I like though.

Will Zumaya help them or torpedo more games than he contributes positively to.?

Willis? Oh boy....we'll see. All I know is that I'm excited to see how it shakes out.

The Tigers won an inordinate amount of close games last year (2nd best record in the AL in games decided by 2-runs or less), that is hard to do two years in a row. They are also running up against The Plexiglass Principle, which holds that teams that who win 10+ more games over the previous year AND overperform their Pythagorean Record by a significant amount (the Tigers did both) usually fall back in the next season. I believe only two teams (out of dozens) in the modern era have qualified for this like the Tigers did last year and then taken the next step to be a playoff team the following the year. Its called the Plexiglass Principle because instead of breaking thru the wall with the good season the wall usually snaps back into place knocking the team backward for a year. I know many folks will think this is hogwash...I don't care about them....history is a powerful guide many times and this "Principle" has been as consistent as almost anything else.

The Organization as a Whole: I really like where this club stands and the direction its heading. They have two marquee players locked up longterm in Verlander and Cabrera. They have their worst commitments drying up this year for the most part. They are committing to younger talent (real talent, not wing-n-a-prayer prospects). They have at least a modest amount of position prospects creeping up in the system for depth. They have a couple of elite arms in the minors and shown the fortitude to get them to the majors early when warranted. Porcello and Scherzer are young and under team control at cheap rates for several more years. The Tigers are showing a commitment to global scouting and continuing to pay premium prices for draft picks, which is a good investment.

Whether or not this yields immediate success in 2010 is not a concern to me (no, its not that I "don't care how they finish", I just don't see the finality of a season's results, the next season is on the way). There is something building in Detroit in my opinion, it may flash this year...or it may take some patience. I have patience as long as the plan makes sense to me.

Predictive History: This is lined up as a "bad year" for me in forecasting the Tigers' fortunes. I was one game off in '05. I was way off in '06 (I said 81, they won 95). I hit it right on the money in '07 w/88 wins. I was way off in '08 (I said 92, they won 74). I nailed it right on 86 wins last year. So I'm tempted to say 77 so they'll win 88! LOL

Where it all adds up.: I tend to be optimistic....especially this time of year. "Tigers Fever" has been my enemy on predicting where they stand....I truly wanted to downgrade the '08 club but couldn't pull the trigger (I'm not talking about the depths they fell to...just something like 86 wins) as I had misgivings about that team. I have good feelings about the state of the organization now though. I like the defensive unit they've assembled. Laird, Inge, Everett, and Jackson will be good at the critical defensive positions. I do believe they'll score about 40 more runs over last year. I worry that the new levels of workload established by Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer last year will bit them a bit this year. However Porcello looks phenomenal right now.....a true Ace in the making to complement Verlander. Scherzer has a ceiling in their neighborhood as well perhaps. These three are probably enough to get them places if they can post close to 100 starts between them. I have some belief Bonderman can contribute. I am excited to see what Willis can do. The bullpen should be adequate maybe more than that. I think the Rookies will be "okay"...I have a feeling Sizemore outproduces Jackson offensively but not by a ton. If Jackson can play a solid CF, he'll be fine. Sizemore has hit at every level and is showing more power of late. His glove will play well enough. Can he stay healthy? His history has some marks on it there.

The Tigers also have some surplus outfielders to trade in their system and perhaps Ryan Strieby since he's blocked by Cabrera...so Dombrowski should be able to add a player if necessary during the year.

So I'm going to commit to 85 wins. I think the extra 40 runs the offense might produce will enable them to ward off the factors that I think were a bit lucky in producing 86 wins last year....so no drastic fall off now in the win column and a better future on the horizon. Is this my optimistic side? Yes. A week ago I was convincing myself they'd win 76 and that's it.....but Porcello's development looks like it may not plateau this year, Damon's signing should work out, and Magglio playing well batting third would mean the world over Clete Thomas batting third. So 85 wins it is....being on target for 85 wins should have them in position to play meaningful games in August/September.

How about a trade on the eve of Opening Day? (just for fun, Dave!)

I'm sitting here watching the A's/Giants game on MLBN and Brett Anderson looks like the real deal for Oakland's rotation. Ace-level stuff from the lefty. Cliff Pennington has made a couple of really athletic plays at Short for the Athletics as well. Watching the A's got me to looking at their pitching situation...and a thought occured to me.....

The A's have a numbers crunch in their rotation.....they have Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez vying for the last spot in the rotation. They'd never trade Cahill at this point....but I wonder if Oakland's General Manager Billy Beane would trade Gonzalez (he's only 24) if they decide Cahill has earned the gig. The MLB.com beat writer doesn't think the A's need Gio in the bullpen due to their depth out there and this writer also doesn't see Gio needing more time in the minors.

Gonzalez has had control issues in the majors....but he's pitching well this spring. He's been a big time K-machine in the minors....dominating lefty stuff at times. If he were on the market, I wonder if Tigers' GM Dave Dombrowski could get in the running to get him? If Gonzalez ever finds it, even for a season, that could be a heckuva season. He has a live arm. That could be nice insurance if a Willis trainwreck is inevitable....(and I hope its not...) I wonder what Billy Beane would want for him.....he seems to like collecting outfielders...Clete Thomas? Or Casper Wells? Dunno....but I really like the thought of adding a guy like Gonzalez, if Beane will take the call about him.

Scherzer

Max Scherzer posted a quality start in Milwaukee in the Tigers 3-2 loss. Pretty good outing it appears. The Brew-Crew had one rally for the three runs. 1 walk and 4 singles against the bottom of the lineup in the 2nd inning. Otherwise Scherzer posted donuts in his other 5 IP, striking out 4 and allowing zero extra-base hits. He got through the 6 inning stint on 91 pitches. So about 15 pitches per inning....not bad considering there was a note that among pitchers who threw 100+ innings that Mad Max had average the highest number of pitches per inning at 18.

Scherzer also held Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, and Prince Fielder to one harmless single on the night.

Austin Jackson went deep for a solo shot and Brandon Inge matched it. The Tigers had the bases juiced and only 1-out in the 8th after Larish, Kelly, and Inge strung together 3 singles. But Alex Avila bounced into a force at home and Danny Worth showed none by striking out to end the threat....that left Adam Everett waiting helplessly on deck just itching to have a chance to break the game wide open with Bunyanesque blast I'm sure. Maybe next time Adam!

Chris D Top 10 Prospect List - April Edition

1 - SP Jacob Turner (18)
2 - SP Casey Crosby (21)
3 - OF Austin Jackson (23)
4 - 1b Ryan Strieby (24)
5 - 2b Scott Sizemore (25)
6 - OF Danny Fields (19)
7 - SP Andy Oliver (22)
8 - C Alex Avila (23)
9 - SS Gustavo Nunez (22)
10 - OF Wilkin Ramirez (24)

I had been ranking Strieby and Sizemore above Austin Jackson because they've shown much more all around hitting compentency ability to date. Jackson is younger than both though and has shown this spring the long term ability to develop in the hitting competency areas of plate patience and SLG %. His extra base hit explosion this spring is encouraging. He also is a more natural two way player if his offensive game continues to develop. I see all three guys on the same plane in terms of potential caliber of players at their position - they all can be All-Stars. Personally, I still would have started Jackson in Toledo this year to let his offensive game continue to develop while protecting his service time, but he looks committed to trying to prove me wrong about his readiness. Great spring for him.

I'm bumping Daniel Schlereth out of the top 10 and bringing Wilkin Ramirez back. It's hard to figure out where to put relief pitchers on prospects ranking list when getting compared to potential everyday players, and Schlereth's command issues need to get sorted out. This is a big year for Wilkin Ramirez. The Tigers have a ton of OF options on the door step, but Ramirez remains the guy with the most tools. He should be comfortable in Toledo this year and ready to have a big year.

The move of Danny Fields to the OF makes sense. His size and speed combo is just a natural fit for CF. It's hard to put expectations on him before he makes his minor league debut, but his skill set might eventually draw comparisons to Junior Griffey. Great speed (one scout has called him the fastest player in the organization), real power (he was hitting HRs out of Comerica Park in batting practice with a wood bat at age 12), professional blood lines, left handed stick... Comparisons to Griffey are not fair of course. At age 19, Griffey was already on the cusp of being a big leaguer; while the Tigers are right now trying to determine if Fields at the same age is ready for Low A ball or extended spring training than rookie ball. Maybe call him Junior Griffey Light.

Lord, help me....give me strength.

A co-worker just convinced me to order P-90X.....the intense home workout/diet regimen. 90-days of effort....let's hope I can do it! It'll arrive next week....