The Tigers in '11

I'm on a roll of every odd number year getting the Tigers win total right on the button. '05, '07, and '09....so this is a big pick for me because its fun to have a streak going. I was off by 14 wins in '06 (low), 17 wins in '08 (high), and 4 wins in '10 (high). As you can see I'm very much at the extremes of accuracy the last few years...right on the head or quite a bit off (though kind of close last year).

Most years I feel very conservative when making a pick for the Tigers. I typically spend time trying to convince myself why they might win a few more than I truly suspect....(I call it "Tigers' Fever"....some years it helps and some years its not a good thing). But this year, its been the exact opposite. I've actually been trying to poke holes in why I have a strong opinion of this team....how could it all go awry and why they aren't as good as I have a hunch they are...

First off...let's assume decent health. Any club that gets hit with too many injuries might struggle and there is no sense stating "if healthy" too many times. The good news is that the Tigers roll into this season very healthy. Nice to see. I never factored in Zumaya or Guillen into my equation from the outset....so any positive contributions from them is a real bonus and truthfully not expected or really needed. Guillen has been in a 3-yr decline in production and health. He had his two good seasons in Detroit but its time to move on. Maybe he wins Comeback Player of the Year...I'd applaud but seriously, its likely over. Zumaya? Maybe he can give them 30 or 35 good innings. That would be great. We'll see, but neither is ultimately that important overall.

What could wrong? Where to start? Austin Jackson's regression possibilities are well chronicled everywhere. If there is one "concern" to be expressed for this club that doesn't seem to get a ton of play among some Tigers' fans...its this issue. If he regresses to a .240/.290/.350 guy, he's almost unplayable despite the defense. Brad Penny is a walking DL-visit and Phil Coke might not transition to the rotation well. Legit questions for both...but neither worries me all that much. The Tigers only need one to have a good year, not both. The first three starters drive this bus as is the case on most good teams. Plenty of good teams mix and match throughout the year at the back of the rotation. Few clubs are like the '10 Rays and make it thru mid-August with every start going to their preferred 5 starters (and even then they were carrying James Shields and his 5.20 ERA). Could Magglio get really old, really fast? Sure. Could V-Mart's power outage from the left side continue? Sure. Could Cabrera disappear into rehab? Yep. Will Peralta suck? Possible. Will Inge's knees give out? Could happen. Will Raburn twist himself into a pretzel trying to play the field? Wouldn't shock me. Will Porcello fail to step forward? Could go either way. Will Scherzer struggle after dominating for the majority of last season? Pitchers are fragile.

The thing about a list like this however is that you can make one for the Twins and White Sox equally as long and equally as dire. Some things will work out....some won't. Its why we watch.

To me...it boils down to the young guys like I've posted a few times. But even more its down to three guys for me....Austin Jackson, Rick Porcello, and Max Scherzer. If these guys take positive steps forward this year to complement Verlander, Cabrera, Ordonez, Raburn, and Martinez then this club is going places. I don't get too concerned about the rest. I think the bullpen has enough options....I think there is some other young depth to draw upon for production like from Brennan Boesch, Alex Avila, Will Rhymes, Andy Oliver, and so on.

So back to those main three young talents. Jackson needs to at least plateau offensively from last year in the OBP category and perhaps show a tick more power. If he can walk a bit more that will lower his K-rate. If I could sign him up for a season of .270/.345/.430 I'd do it right now....couple those numbers with his defense and that's a productive ballplayer. If he can truly step up from last year, then we really have something good to watch. Porcello showed down the stretch last year that he is growing a bit as a pitcher. He was solid enough this Spring for what that's worth. 190 IP with an ERA anywhere from 3.75 to 4.10 would be just fine. I'll be watching for an uptick in his K-rate and stability in his K/BB ratio as signs for success. Scherzer....a huge talent. A massive gift on the trade market. I still marvel he was available and credit Tigers' GM Dave Dombrowski for pulling that trigger. Scherzer showed his ability last year dominating for a long, long stretch. He showed his cerebral flair by diagnosing his own mechanical issues during his Toledo sojourn (Paging Rick Knapp? Calling Rick Knapp). 200+ IP and a 3.60 ERA? Yeah...I hope Max can give them that and I think he can.

I didn't like Dombrowski's off-season very much. But that didn't factor in very much to my thoughts on this season. I thought the groundwork for '11 was laid over the last few years. This year they brought in Martinez, which I thought was questionable. I would have gone a different, cheaper route to fill the DH role (Jim Thome? Vlad? Somebody like that on a short deal w/no draft comp). The Joaquin Benoit signing was a silly contract given the mercurial nature of relief pitchers and Benoit's long injury history....but I'm willing to overlook it since Dombrowski hasn't given out contracts like this to set-up relievers very often so I doubt he'll make a habit of it...plus Benoit was coming off a hugely dominant season and you can at least look at that performance to dream about what he could do as a Tiger. Brad Penny was a fine enough signing. A low-risk dart throw...maybe it hits the target.

My initial thought this year was for a big number of wins. 94+ perhaps. Mostly because I thought that the Tribe and Royals would be so ghastly that it would pump up the win total for the division winner. I've backed off that a bit. I don't think the Tribe will be 100-loss bad anymore. I also think the Royals will struggle early but as they start plugging in their top-o-the-line prospects throughout the second half of the season they'll be a little tougher. (in fact I'm a bit bummed the Tigers have all of their visits to KC after July 1...I wish they were going in their early this year....it could get hairy in KC come August/September)

I don't think the White Sox are anything close to a juggernaut. They have issues on defense and their offense isn't much deeper than Detroit's. The Bullpen is just okay. Rotation is good but not overwhelmingly so. The Twins have bullpen issues, a new middle infield that is completely questionable, Morneau's lingering issues, terrible outfield defense, and a 3B who needs to prove he can do it for the long haul. They have a bunch of strengths too...but you can say that for the Tigers as well. In short...I don't particularly fear Minnesota or Chicago if the Tigers take care of their own business and have the right guys step up.

So......here it is.....I'm taking the Tigers to win the AL Central. I'm picking them to win 90 games. 90-72. Let's see it Tigers!