My feelings on the situation? I'm not trying to be "above it all" or dismissive of those who are genuinely worried about the move, but I really don't think it matters much.
What do I think the Tigers will do? While I won't be stunned if Everett or Kelly get DFA'd, I think sending out Worth is their easiest move and that's what they'll do. They don't have to eat any money and they don't risk losing anyone from the organization.
What would I do if I got to make the decision in a bizarro world where bloggers make the choices? I'd try to trade somebody like Raburn but, failing that, I'd send Worth back for the time being. He's played well but its not a permanent move....a long season ahead he'll probably have more chances.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Dealing for Roy Oswalt?
I'm a fan of Roy Oswalt. He was a terrific pitcher in the middle part of this last decade. He's still a very good pitcher who is off to a hot start this season.
That's all well and good. But I'd be saying "no thanks" to Ed Wade if he called unless the price in prospects was very reasonable.
Oswalt is 32 and would be switching leagues to the tougher loop. The last couple of years, prior to this good stretch he's currently on, there were whispers around that he was losing something and wasn't the guy he was. Which is perfectly natural and happens all the time. Its no death-sentence to be entering your middle-30's....he can still be very good as he's currently showing. But how much do you pay for that? He's making $15M this year, $16M in '11, and has a club option for '12 for another $16M or a $2M buyout. So he's not cheap.....but what would be a fair deal for his services?
First off, I saw some ideas of "Porcello for Oswalt" yesterday. Let's dispense with that madness now....that won't be happening. Dombrowski should be banished to be the Athletic Director of the Louisiana State Penitentiary instead of a MLB GM if he does that.
Second, Houston can expect "premium" prospects all they want....but I have a feeling they won't be getting a power-packed list of names. I'd see something closer to the Jake Peavy Trade package that the Padres got from the White Sox. The Astros have one of baseball's weakest farm systems by general acclimation. They have massive depth problems and they probably should try to find a slew of good players to patch into their system. I think a package including talented but not top shelf Tigers' prospects could get a deal done. Oliver (once he's PTBNL-eligible), Schlereth, Boesch, Marte', Strieby, Wells, Sizemore, Bishop, Furbush, and so on. A reasonable package of players could be assembled from that list. If the prices start going up into the Scherzer, Turner, Crosby range then I'd pass.
I think if the Rangers sale can get done that they would be a logical destination for Oswalt. Oswalt is supposedly tight with the Astros owner....so he'll make sure Roy goes somewhere that he wants to go. Detroit may not even be on the list anyhow. Oswalt has a full no-trade clause, so even though he's requested a trade he can turn down places he wants no part of. The AL West would make by far the most sense if he's going to switch leagues....the weak sister offenses are out there and the Rangers have a shot to contend over the life of his contract. (I still have suspicions that the owner won't approve a deal...he has a hard time letting go of "his guys"....see Biggio/Bagwell)
In the end my opinion is this.....if Roy Oswalt would consider being a Tiger that's great. But he's switching leagues, he's 32, and he's owed a ton of money. I wouldn't want the Tigers to pay thru the teeth for that....they'd be paying for his past exploits in the NL, not what he might do in the AL moving forward from the current day. A reasonable price....nothing more.
That's all well and good. But I'd be saying "no thanks" to Ed Wade if he called unless the price in prospects was very reasonable.
Oswalt is 32 and would be switching leagues to the tougher loop. The last couple of years, prior to this good stretch he's currently on, there were whispers around that he was losing something and wasn't the guy he was. Which is perfectly natural and happens all the time. Its no death-sentence to be entering your middle-30's....he can still be very good as he's currently showing. But how much do you pay for that? He's making $15M this year, $16M in '11, and has a club option for '12 for another $16M or a $2M buyout. So he's not cheap.....but what would be a fair deal for his services?
First off, I saw some ideas of "Porcello for Oswalt" yesterday. Let's dispense with that madness now....that won't be happening. Dombrowski should be banished to be the Athletic Director of the Louisiana State Penitentiary instead of a MLB GM if he does that.
Second, Houston can expect "premium" prospects all they want....but I have a feeling they won't be getting a power-packed list of names. I'd see something closer to the Jake Peavy Trade package that the Padres got from the White Sox. The Astros have one of baseball's weakest farm systems by general acclimation. They have massive depth problems and they probably should try to find a slew of good players to patch into their system. I think a package including talented but not top shelf Tigers' prospects could get a deal done. Oliver (once he's PTBNL-eligible), Schlereth, Boesch, Marte', Strieby, Wells, Sizemore, Bishop, Furbush, and so on. A reasonable package of players could be assembled from that list. If the prices start going up into the Scherzer, Turner, Crosby range then I'd pass.
I think if the Rangers sale can get done that they would be a logical destination for Oswalt. Oswalt is supposedly tight with the Astros owner....so he'll make sure Roy goes somewhere that he wants to go. Detroit may not even be on the list anyhow. Oswalt has a full no-trade clause, so even though he's requested a trade he can turn down places he wants no part of. The AL West would make by far the most sense if he's going to switch leagues....the weak sister offenses are out there and the Rangers have a shot to contend over the life of his contract. (I still have suspicions that the owner won't approve a deal...he has a hard time letting go of "his guys"....see Biggio/Bagwell)
In the end my opinion is this.....if Roy Oswalt would consider being a Tiger that's great. But he's switching leagues, he's 32, and he's owed a ton of money. I wouldn't want the Tigers to pay thru the teeth for that....they'd be paying for his past exploits in the NL, not what he might do in the AL moving forward from the current day. A reasonable price....nothing more.
Friday, May 21, 2010
Boesch
It will be very interesting to see what the next few weeks hold for him....not to mention the next year or two. I alluded to the possibility before he started that he might smack a couple of balls early on in the first 3 or 4 games he plays....but its lasted much longer than that, it would have been tough for anyone to forecast what he's done to this point. Very fun to see and a huge lift to the squad. His progression over the last 18-months has been impressive. He was probably a year or so from the scrap heap with how he was performing in A-ball....but his power came alive last year and he even started raising his OBP late in his Erie season. Now with what we've witnessed this year, he's really on the map.
Nobody knows how long this current streak of power will last....but its a fun wave to ride. I think he has a good shot, at the very least, to be a strong-side platoon guy in a corner outfield spot. He's had a couple of hit versus lefties so far....but that's the part I suspect will struggle in time. I'd also love to see him start taking a few walks as you have to think they'll be pitching him more carefully....but all-out aggression has been a pretty big part of his success thus far...how much should they temper that? That's a big question in my mind.....
Nobody knows how long this current streak of power will last....but its a fun wave to ride. I think he has a good shot, at the very least, to be a strong-side platoon guy in a corner outfield spot. He's had a couple of hit versus lefties so far....but that's the part I suspect will struggle in time. I'd also love to see him start taking a few walks as you have to think they'll be pitching him more carefully....but all-out aggression has been a pretty big part of his success thus far...how much should they temper that? That's a big question in my mind.....
Valverde's transformation?
Still a pretty small sample of 18.2 IP on the season...but its interesting to look at the components of his success thus far.
His K-rate is down 33% from last year. His BB-rate is up 25%. Those two numbers don't compute to more success of course. But there is one thing that does....his Groundball% is WAY up....its up almost 70% over last year. Groundballs help a lot, especially if you're walking more guys than normal.
So it will be fun to see if he remains a different pitcher in the AL then he was in the NL...or if, over the course of a season, his older pitching patterns re-emerge. As long as he keeps finishing off wins I guess it doesn't matter...but if he starts to struggle at all it might be due to some of the numbers above not holding up.
One thing for sure is that Valverde won't be able to maintain his Left-On-Base Percentage of 95.9%....nobody can. He will allow some runs here eventually....everybody does. Hopefully its just timed to the save opps where he has a multi-run lead to protect....luck plays into it a bit.
He's as fun to watch as a remember him from his days in Arizona though....my wife's family are D-Back's fans, so I watched him a few times out there. Its a fun show....
His K-rate is down 33% from last year. His BB-rate is up 25%. Those two numbers don't compute to more success of course. But there is one thing that does....his Groundball% is WAY up....its up almost 70% over last year. Groundballs help a lot, especially if you're walking more guys than normal.
So it will be fun to see if he remains a different pitcher in the AL then he was in the NL...or if, over the course of a season, his older pitching patterns re-emerge. As long as he keeps finishing off wins I guess it doesn't matter...but if he starts to struggle at all it might be due to some of the numbers above not holding up.
One thing for sure is that Valverde won't be able to maintain his Left-On-Base Percentage of 95.9%....nobody can. He will allow some runs here eventually....everybody does. Hopefully its just timed to the save opps where he has a multi-run lead to protect....luck plays into it a bit.
He's as fun to watch as a remember him from his days in Arizona though....my wife's family are D-Back's fans, so I watched him a few times out there. Its a fun show....
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Bonderman
Jeremy Bonderman goes 6 complete innings allowing only 1 ER w/4 K and 0 BB. A really solid outing. Yes, he allowed a few hits but he had to pitch around a couple of errors today that had him face some extra batters to run up the hit total. No matter, it was a good performance and another that he can continue to build from. The 0-walk effort was huge. If you're going to have 3-errors committed behind you and allow 10 hits then you can't issue the free passes.
Eddie Bonine and Fu-Te Ni (alright everybody...join in Gimme me a "Foo!".....gimme a "Tay!"....gimme a "Knee!"....what's it spell?) really did a great job bringing the game home once Bonderman passed the baton. They held the Angels (a lineup that defines "ordinary" btw) in check allowing Johnny Damon the chance to perform his heroics. Don't get me wrong, Damon was the hero of the day, but Bonderman/Bonine/Ni did plenty of the heavy lifting on Saturday.
Hopefully the Tigers break out the broom sticks on Sunday afternoon.
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