AL EAST
1. Tampa Bay Rays 93-69
Write them off at your own peril. They have a deep organization and a rotation that should keep them plenty competitive. I suspect Manny Ramirez is interested in competing this year to try for another payday down the line. I suspect Evan Longoria might be the best player in the AL.
2. New York Yankees 91-71
I think the Yankees are a little old in some spots and a bit questionable in their rotation. They are still the Yankees though and they'll compete.
3. Boston Red Sox 88-74
Good club....too much hype. I'm not a full believer in their rotation's reliability. Lester is as good as they come but I think Buchholz may regress a little. Lackey and Beckett were both questionable last year and have a lot of tread off the tires.
4. Baltimore Orioles 79-83
The "Rays-like" renaissance is coming in Baltimore. But its a year away.....Brian Matusz is a good one, but remember the name "Zach Britton", he's got the killer combo of big time heat and a groundball inducing action. Patience for O's fans.
5. Toronto Blue Jays 77-85
I like the moves the young GM is making. They have some solid starting pitching. I suspect Jose Bautista comes back to earth and they die by the homer more than live by the homer like last year. Travis Snider could break out however.
AL WEST
1. Oakland Athletics 86-76
Very solid starting pitching for their home park especially. Brett Anderson could challenge for a Cy Young. Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill are volatile stocks but worthy bets I think. Good defensive club. Insanely deep bullpen on paper. Added a little power this year. A couple of prospects w/breakout potential. Not the toughest division to attempt to slay.
2. Texas Rangers 84-78
Slight hangover from their Pennant run. Good power and speed in their lineup. But three injury prone stars in Kinsler, Hamilton, and Cruz....how much time do they miss? Hard to trust that Colby Lewis can be that good again. Wasting Neftali Feliz as a mere Closer. Derek Holland could break out.
3. California Angels 77-85
Solid starting pitching for the most part. Decent young arms in their bullpen. Weak everyday lineup all the more iffy if Kendrys Morales misses any more significant time. Probably a club that should punt and rebuild after electing to not delve heavy into free agency. Perhaps baseball's top prospect Mike Trout is on the way in a year or so.
4. Seattle Mariners 75-87
M's fans get to watch King Felix. They love Ichiro Suzuki. Justin Smoak is a solid 1B prospect and Dustin Ackley is a likely future star at 2B. They are going to let Michael Pineda be Robin for Felix's Batman. So there is fun stuff for M's fans to watch...just don't look at the standings much. Offense should still be beyond brutal after being historically poor last year.
AL CENTRAL
1. Tigers 90-72:
Talked thru most of their issues/potential all winter. The team is in the hands of the young guys in support of Verlander and Cabrera. How many step forward and which ones? If enough of them do and Scherzer, Porcello, and Jackson are among them (although if Boesch does, that's another dimension of power that is sorely needed)...this club will contend.
2. Twins 85-77:
Decent rotation depth but not exactly teeming with talent among that depth. Bullpen questions in support of Nathan/Capps. I think Capps is being thought of as too much of a sure thing. He was good last year....but in '09 he had a 5+ ERA and was non-tendered after nobody traded for him. The Twins are not a good defensive ballclub. They can, however, mash. Some power hitters especially if Morneau comes back and Kubel rebounds. The new home field isn't a power hitters park but it didn't hurt them last year other than Mauer's homer total. New middle infield and Valencia isn't very experienced at 3B. Denard Span is my candidate for a big rebound. Mauer is a superstar...Liriano is a Cy Young candidate if healthy.
3. White Sox 84-78:
I think Adam Dunn will be a Twins-Killer but I think the Tigers can handle him. Dunn chews up and spits out right-handed control pitchers...that describes most Twins pitchers. He struggles against power-pitching. The Tigers have those guys. The White Sox have a shot to win a lot of games this year. You can make an easy argument why they'll win 90+....but I think Paul Konerko will have a hard time duplicating last year's tour de force. I do not love Alex Rios or Carlos Quentin or Juan Pierre. I do like the middle infield a lot....Beckham and Ramirez. A rookie at 3B in Brent Morel w/no power doesn't scare me even though he has a rep where he might be a superior gloveman to Inge. New faces in the bullpen. A solid rotation...but Peavy is an extreme question mark and they have nobody close to ready in their system that seems like a bet to pick up any slack should Peavy or someone else falter. Zero depth for starting pitching...that's a tough tight-rope to walk.
4. Tribe: 75-87:
I like their starting pitching just a little better than some (its still not good). I don't like their bullpen at all. I like some of their lineup, though they are weak in many spots too. Shin Soo-Choo and Carlos Santana are solid. Sizemore might make a comeback. I like Lonnie Chisenhall to eventually be a Travis Fryman-type 3B. Mike Brantley could leadoff and steal 40 bags. Mostly I suspect to see a lot of new faces in CLE throughout the year...the Tribe has a fairly deep farm system brewing. Not a ton of stars according to some...but a bunch of legit major leaguers eventually.
5. Royals 68-94:
They will stink early. I don't see how they'll score many runs unless Alex Gordon's big Spring Training is real and Billy Butler/Kila Ka-aihue' can carry the load. The starting rotation has 5 legit starters...unfortunately, they are 5 legit #5 starters, which ain't good. (Hochevar might be better than that though....we'll see.) KC's bullpen could be very good. Remember the name Tim Collins. He could be very fun to watch. The Royals have the motherlode of talent on the way. A sickening display of uber-talented kiddies w/little end in sight. Some of them will start to appear this year and I think the Royals will play a better brand of baseball later in the season.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
The Tigers in '11
I'm on a roll of every odd number year getting the Tigers win total right on the button. '05, '07, and '09....so this is a big pick for me because its fun to have a streak going. I was off by 14 wins in '06 (low), 17 wins in '08 (high), and 4 wins in '10 (high). As you can see I'm very much at the extremes of accuracy the last few years...right on the head or quite a bit off (though kind of close last year).
Most years I feel very conservative when making a pick for the Tigers. I typically spend time trying to convince myself why they might win a few more than I truly suspect....(I call it "Tigers' Fever"....some years it helps and some years its not a good thing). But this year, its been the exact opposite. I've actually been trying to poke holes in why I have a strong opinion of this team....how could it all go awry and why they aren't as good as I have a hunch they are...
First off...let's assume decent health. Any club that gets hit with too many injuries might struggle and there is no sense stating "if healthy" too many times. The good news is that the Tigers roll into this season very healthy. Nice to see. I never factored in Zumaya or Guillen into my equation from the outset....so any positive contributions from them is a real bonus and truthfully not expected or really needed. Guillen has been in a 3-yr decline in production and health. He had his two good seasons in Detroit but its time to move on. Maybe he wins Comeback Player of the Year...I'd applaud but seriously, its likely over. Zumaya? Maybe he can give them 30 or 35 good innings. That would be great. We'll see, but neither is ultimately that important overall.
What could wrong? Where to start? Austin Jackson's regression possibilities are well chronicled everywhere. If there is one "concern" to be expressed for this club that doesn't seem to get a ton of play among some Tigers' fans...its this issue. If he regresses to a .240/.290/.350 guy, he's almost unplayable despite the defense. Brad Penny is a walking DL-visit and Phil Coke might not transition to the rotation well. Legit questions for both...but neither worries me all that much. The Tigers only need one to have a good year, not both. The first three starters drive this bus as is the case on most good teams. Plenty of good teams mix and match throughout the year at the back of the rotation. Few clubs are like the '10 Rays and make it thru mid-August with every start going to their preferred 5 starters (and even then they were carrying James Shields and his 5.20 ERA). Could Magglio get really old, really fast? Sure. Could V-Mart's power outage from the left side continue? Sure. Could Cabrera disappear into rehab? Yep. Will Peralta suck? Possible. Will Inge's knees give out? Could happen. Will Raburn twist himself into a pretzel trying to play the field? Wouldn't shock me. Will Porcello fail to step forward? Could go either way. Will Scherzer struggle after dominating for the majority of last season? Pitchers are fragile.
The thing about a list like this however is that you can make one for the Twins and White Sox equally as long and equally as dire. Some things will work out....some won't. Its why we watch.
To me...it boils down to the young guys like I've posted a few times. But even more its down to three guys for me....Austin Jackson, Rick Porcello, and Max Scherzer. If these guys take positive steps forward this year to complement Verlander, Cabrera, Ordonez, Raburn, and Martinez then this club is going places. I don't get too concerned about the rest. I think the bullpen has enough options....I think there is some other young depth to draw upon for production like from Brennan Boesch, Alex Avila, Will Rhymes, Andy Oliver, and so on.
So back to those main three young talents. Jackson needs to at least plateau offensively from last year in the OBP category and perhaps show a tick more power. If he can walk a bit more that will lower his K-rate. If I could sign him up for a season of .270/.345/.430 I'd do it right now....couple those numbers with his defense and that's a productive ballplayer. If he can truly step up from last year, then we really have something good to watch. Porcello showed down the stretch last year that he is growing a bit as a pitcher. He was solid enough this Spring for what that's worth. 190 IP with an ERA anywhere from 3.75 to 4.10 would be just fine. I'll be watching for an uptick in his K-rate and stability in his K/BB ratio as signs for success. Scherzer....a huge talent. A massive gift on the trade market. I still marvel he was available and credit Tigers' GM Dave Dombrowski for pulling that trigger. Scherzer showed his ability last year dominating for a long, long stretch. He showed his cerebral flair by diagnosing his own mechanical issues during his Toledo sojourn (Paging Rick Knapp? Calling Rick Knapp). 200+ IP and a 3.60 ERA? Yeah...I hope Max can give them that and I think he can.
I didn't like Dombrowski's off-season very much. But that didn't factor in very much to my thoughts on this season. I thought the groundwork for '11 was laid over the last few years. This year they brought in Martinez, which I thought was questionable. I would have gone a different, cheaper route to fill the DH role (Jim Thome? Vlad? Somebody like that on a short deal w/no draft comp). The Joaquin Benoit signing was a silly contract given the mercurial nature of relief pitchers and Benoit's long injury history....but I'm willing to overlook it since Dombrowski hasn't given out contracts like this to set-up relievers very often so I doubt he'll make a habit of it...plus Benoit was coming off a hugely dominant season and you can at least look at that performance to dream about what he could do as a Tiger. Brad Penny was a fine enough signing. A low-risk dart throw...maybe it hits the target.
My initial thought this year was for a big number of wins. 94+ perhaps. Mostly because I thought that the Tribe and Royals would be so ghastly that it would pump up the win total for the division winner. I've backed off that a bit. I don't think the Tribe will be 100-loss bad anymore. I also think the Royals will struggle early but as they start plugging in their top-o-the-line prospects throughout the second half of the season they'll be a little tougher. (in fact I'm a bit bummed the Tigers have all of their visits to KC after July 1...I wish they were going in their early this year....it could get hairy in KC come August/September)
I don't think the White Sox are anything close to a juggernaut. They have issues on defense and their offense isn't much deeper than Detroit's. The Bullpen is just okay. Rotation is good but not overwhelmingly so. The Twins have bullpen issues, a new middle infield that is completely questionable, Morneau's lingering issues, terrible outfield defense, and a 3B who needs to prove he can do it for the long haul. They have a bunch of strengths too...but you can say that for the Tigers as well. In short...I don't particularly fear Minnesota or Chicago if the Tigers take care of their own business and have the right guys step up.
So......here it is.....I'm taking the Tigers to win the AL Central. I'm picking them to win 90 games. 90-72. Let's see it Tigers!
Most years I feel very conservative when making a pick for the Tigers. I typically spend time trying to convince myself why they might win a few more than I truly suspect....(I call it "Tigers' Fever"....some years it helps and some years its not a good thing). But this year, its been the exact opposite. I've actually been trying to poke holes in why I have a strong opinion of this team....how could it all go awry and why they aren't as good as I have a hunch they are...
First off...let's assume decent health. Any club that gets hit with too many injuries might struggle and there is no sense stating "if healthy" too many times. The good news is that the Tigers roll into this season very healthy. Nice to see. I never factored in Zumaya or Guillen into my equation from the outset....so any positive contributions from them is a real bonus and truthfully not expected or really needed. Guillen has been in a 3-yr decline in production and health. He had his two good seasons in Detroit but its time to move on. Maybe he wins Comeback Player of the Year...I'd applaud but seriously, its likely over. Zumaya? Maybe he can give them 30 or 35 good innings. That would be great. We'll see, but neither is ultimately that important overall.
What could wrong? Where to start? Austin Jackson's regression possibilities are well chronicled everywhere. If there is one "concern" to be expressed for this club that doesn't seem to get a ton of play among some Tigers' fans...its this issue. If he regresses to a .240/.290/.350 guy, he's almost unplayable despite the defense. Brad Penny is a walking DL-visit and Phil Coke might not transition to the rotation well. Legit questions for both...but neither worries me all that much. The Tigers only need one to have a good year, not both. The first three starters drive this bus as is the case on most good teams. Plenty of good teams mix and match throughout the year at the back of the rotation. Few clubs are like the '10 Rays and make it thru mid-August with every start going to their preferred 5 starters (and even then they were carrying James Shields and his 5.20 ERA). Could Magglio get really old, really fast? Sure. Could V-Mart's power outage from the left side continue? Sure. Could Cabrera disappear into rehab? Yep. Will Peralta suck? Possible. Will Inge's knees give out? Could happen. Will Raburn twist himself into a pretzel trying to play the field? Wouldn't shock me. Will Porcello fail to step forward? Could go either way. Will Scherzer struggle after dominating for the majority of last season? Pitchers are fragile.
The thing about a list like this however is that you can make one for the Twins and White Sox equally as long and equally as dire. Some things will work out....some won't. Its why we watch.
To me...it boils down to the young guys like I've posted a few times. But even more its down to three guys for me....Austin Jackson, Rick Porcello, and Max Scherzer. If these guys take positive steps forward this year to complement Verlander, Cabrera, Ordonez, Raburn, and Martinez then this club is going places. I don't get too concerned about the rest. I think the bullpen has enough options....I think there is some other young depth to draw upon for production like from Brennan Boesch, Alex Avila, Will Rhymes, Andy Oliver, and so on.
So back to those main three young talents. Jackson needs to at least plateau offensively from last year in the OBP category and perhaps show a tick more power. If he can walk a bit more that will lower his K-rate. If I could sign him up for a season of .270/.345/.430 I'd do it right now....couple those numbers with his defense and that's a productive ballplayer. If he can truly step up from last year, then we really have something good to watch. Porcello showed down the stretch last year that he is growing a bit as a pitcher. He was solid enough this Spring for what that's worth. 190 IP with an ERA anywhere from 3.75 to 4.10 would be just fine. I'll be watching for an uptick in his K-rate and stability in his K/BB ratio as signs for success. Scherzer....a huge talent. A massive gift on the trade market. I still marvel he was available and credit Tigers' GM Dave Dombrowski for pulling that trigger. Scherzer showed his ability last year dominating for a long, long stretch. He showed his cerebral flair by diagnosing his own mechanical issues during his Toledo sojourn (Paging Rick Knapp? Calling Rick Knapp). 200+ IP and a 3.60 ERA? Yeah...I hope Max can give them that and I think he can.
I didn't like Dombrowski's off-season very much. But that didn't factor in very much to my thoughts on this season. I thought the groundwork for '11 was laid over the last few years. This year they brought in Martinez, which I thought was questionable. I would have gone a different, cheaper route to fill the DH role (Jim Thome? Vlad? Somebody like that on a short deal w/no draft comp). The Joaquin Benoit signing was a silly contract given the mercurial nature of relief pitchers and Benoit's long injury history....but I'm willing to overlook it since Dombrowski hasn't given out contracts like this to set-up relievers very often so I doubt he'll make a habit of it...plus Benoit was coming off a hugely dominant season and you can at least look at that performance to dream about what he could do as a Tiger. Brad Penny was a fine enough signing. A low-risk dart throw...maybe it hits the target.
My initial thought this year was for a big number of wins. 94+ perhaps. Mostly because I thought that the Tribe and Royals would be so ghastly that it would pump up the win total for the division winner. I've backed off that a bit. I don't think the Tribe will be 100-loss bad anymore. I also think the Royals will struggle early but as they start plugging in their top-o-the-line prospects throughout the second half of the season they'll be a little tougher. (in fact I'm a bit bummed the Tigers have all of their visits to KC after July 1...I wish they were going in their early this year....it could get hairy in KC come August/September)
I don't think the White Sox are anything close to a juggernaut. They have issues on defense and their offense isn't much deeper than Detroit's. The Bullpen is just okay. Rotation is good but not overwhelmingly so. The Twins have bullpen issues, a new middle infield that is completely questionable, Morneau's lingering issues, terrible outfield defense, and a 3B who needs to prove he can do it for the long haul. They have a bunch of strengths too...but you can say that for the Tigers as well. In short...I don't particularly fear Minnesota or Chicago if the Tigers take care of their own business and have the right guys step up.
So......here it is.....I'm taking the Tigers to win the AL Central. I'm picking them to win 90 games. 90-72. Let's see it Tigers!
Monday, March 21, 2011
Jhonny Be......Decent?
"Way down there in the Copa on the field of green
A guy was in the box, hittin' .218
But Miggy's on third so he's swinging the wood
'cause its a Caribbean kid named Ribbie B. Good
he never ever learned to walk or field so well
But he drives in a run just like ringing a bell!
GO GO....Go Ribbie Go
NOOO really, GO GO
GOO RIBBIE GO GO
RIbbie B. Goode
He wears his jersey like a gunny sack
to hide the gut he has from eatin' a snack
One day Lloyd Mac saw him sittin' in the shade
Dreamin' of his hits and the runs they made
Pitchers passin' by they would stop and say
If that stinkin' glove ever made a play
GO! GO RIBBIE GO GO
GO RIBBIE GO GO
RIBBIE B. GOODE!
His GM told him "for two years you'll be the man"
and the infield leader of ol' Jimmy's band
Baserunners will come from miles around
and you can knock 'em home 'til the Sun goes down
Maybe someday your name gonna be in lights
Wailin' RIBBIE B. GOODE TONIGHT! "
Okay....horrible song parody. My apologies to the great Chuck Berry.
What can be said about Jhonny Peralta that hasn't been well chronicled? He's a vaunted "RBI Man".....almost like that has superhero status. Never mind he's a telephone pole masquerading as a shortstop and the only walk he takes is to Arby's.
Dave Dombrowski lavished this fellow with a two-year deal. I didn't get it then and I still don't see the rationale. Was the market for Jhonny Peralta really competitive that he could demand two years? Who else was even linked in the weakest possible sense to a possible Peralta-pursuit? This is the kind of contract that fuels the full time critics of Dombrowski (I have great respect for Dombrowski and what he's meant to Tigers' baseball btw....but he throws some doozies in there to keep his fans honest. Ladies and Gentlemen I give you the Edgar Renteria Trade and the Dontrelle Willis Extension!)
Now I'll admit...in the grand scheme of things signing Jhonny Peralta to be your shortstop isn't a crime against humanity. I just think Dombrowski was taking the path of least resistance. The shortstop market is kind of threadbare....no question there. So committing to Peralta early just put the shortstop issue to bed early in the off-season and allowed the GM to move on to things like signing Victor Martinez (and sacrificing a first round pick in this unbelievably loaded draft coming up in June......this will be the subject of numerous posts as that draft nears....you've been alerted). I just hated the second year being added to the deal. I could have put a year's worth of faith into Jhonny Peralta trying to play SS, revive his career, and finding the offensive game he showed a couple of times in years (well) past....but two years on the deal was A Bridge Too Far. (WW2 movie reference...gotta work those in from time to time!)
Then....then...then Lynn Henning comes out with an article today about the idea of committing to Danny Worth and trading Jhonny Peralta. Really Lynn? Will Dombrowski really find a suitor at this juncture who wants Peralta to play SS or 3B? How much of his $11.25M deal will the Tigers be willing to assume? Can Peralta even be traded right now....aren't Free Agents unable to be traded for a few months? (I could be wrong on this one....it happens from time to usually) Would Dombrowski really admit to this mistake before the end of Spring Training. I have my doubts.....but in a crazy way I'd actually respect him more if he did pull the trigger on a Peralta Trade (if this is even realistic whatsoever). Former Packers GM Ron Wolf would say words to the effect of this: "Its okay to make mistakes, they can't always be avoided....but the worst thing to do is decide to live with it, you have to fix it". This is harder to do in MLB than in the NFL because of guaranteed contracts....but if Dombrowski can find the right deal that would be quite a move.
I will root for Jhonny Peralta to prove me and lots of his skeptics wrong. Seeing him post a season at the plate of something like .270/.340/.440 would be marvelous.....it would also be nice if his defense didn't induce premature gray hair for Justin Verlander. However I have hard time seeing this. There is a part of me that thinks it would be a lot more satisfying to see how young Danny Worth would perform and hoping for the best. Its always better to watch a young kid and hope for the best instead of watching a mediocre veteran and quietly expect very little. We'll see what happens....
A guy was in the box, hittin' .218
But Miggy's on third so he's swinging the wood
'cause its a Caribbean kid named Ribbie B. Good
he never ever learned to walk or field so well
But he drives in a run just like ringing a bell!
GO GO....Go Ribbie Go
NOOO really, GO GO
GOO RIBBIE GO GO
RIbbie B. Goode
He wears his jersey like a gunny sack
to hide the gut he has from eatin' a snack
One day Lloyd Mac saw him sittin' in the shade
Dreamin' of his hits and the runs they made
Pitchers passin' by they would stop and say
If that stinkin' glove ever made a play
GO! GO RIBBIE GO GO
GO RIBBIE GO GO
RIBBIE B. GOODE!
His GM told him "for two years you'll be the man"
and the infield leader of ol' Jimmy's band
Baserunners will come from miles around
and you can knock 'em home 'til the Sun goes down
Maybe someday your name gonna be in lights
Wailin' RIBBIE B. GOODE TONIGHT! "
Okay....horrible song parody. My apologies to the great Chuck Berry.
What can be said about Jhonny Peralta that hasn't been well chronicled? He's a vaunted "RBI Man".....almost like that has superhero status. Never mind he's a telephone pole masquerading as a shortstop and the only walk he takes is to Arby's.
Dave Dombrowski lavished this fellow with a two-year deal. I didn't get it then and I still don't see the rationale. Was the market for Jhonny Peralta really competitive that he could demand two years? Who else was even linked in the weakest possible sense to a possible Peralta-pursuit? This is the kind of contract that fuels the full time critics of Dombrowski (I have great respect for Dombrowski and what he's meant to Tigers' baseball btw....but he throws some doozies in there to keep his fans honest. Ladies and Gentlemen I give you the Edgar Renteria Trade and the Dontrelle Willis Extension!)
Now I'll admit...in the grand scheme of things signing Jhonny Peralta to be your shortstop isn't a crime against humanity. I just think Dombrowski was taking the path of least resistance. The shortstop market is kind of threadbare....no question there. So committing to Peralta early just put the shortstop issue to bed early in the off-season and allowed the GM to move on to things like signing Victor Martinez (and sacrificing a first round pick in this unbelievably loaded draft coming up in June......this will be the subject of numerous posts as that draft nears....you've been alerted). I just hated the second year being added to the deal. I could have put a year's worth of faith into Jhonny Peralta trying to play SS, revive his career, and finding the offensive game he showed a couple of times in years (well) past....but two years on the deal was A Bridge Too Far. (WW2 movie reference...gotta work those in from time to time!)
Then....then...then Lynn Henning comes out with an article today about the idea of committing to Danny Worth and trading Jhonny Peralta. Really Lynn? Will Dombrowski really find a suitor at this juncture who wants Peralta to play SS or 3B? How much of his $11.25M deal will the Tigers be willing to assume? Can Peralta even be traded right now....aren't Free Agents unable to be traded for a few months? (I could be wrong on this one....it happens from time to usually) Would Dombrowski really admit to this mistake before the end of Spring Training. I have my doubts.....but in a crazy way I'd actually respect him more if he did pull the trigger on a Peralta Trade (if this is even realistic whatsoever). Former Packers GM Ron Wolf would say words to the effect of this: "Its okay to make mistakes, they can't always be avoided....but the worst thing to do is decide to live with it, you have to fix it". This is harder to do in MLB than in the NFL because of guaranteed contracts....but if Dombrowski can find the right deal that would be quite a move.
I will root for Jhonny Peralta to prove me and lots of his skeptics wrong. Seeing him post a season at the plate of something like .270/.340/.440 would be marvelous.....it would also be nice if his defense didn't induce premature gray hair for Justin Verlander. However I have hard time seeing this. There is a part of me that thinks it would be a lot more satisfying to see how young Danny Worth would perform and hoping for the best. Its always better to watch a young kid and hope for the best instead of watching a mediocre veteran and quietly expect very little. We'll see what happens....
GO JHONNY GO! GO! RIBBIE B. GOODE!
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
An Old Fashioned Smack in the Kisser!
Me: "Antiques Roadshow isn't on tonight....Iowa Public Television has college wrestling on."
The Effervescent One: "What's college wrestling?"
Me: "Take a look...those two guys are on the mat wrestling. What do you think?"
TEO: "Why are they messin' around....I'd just punch him the face and be done."
Me: "I appreciate your desire for efficiency."
So.....its probably worth another post someday on Iowa's abnormal love of wrestling to note that PBS in Iowa televises wrestling instead of "Frontline" or "Masterpiece Theater". But what struck me was how happy my 7-yr old daughter, The Effervescent One (TEO), made me by sizing up that situation and figuring out there was a lot of unnecessary stuff going on there. A simple punch in the face would solve a lot of things instead of the rolling around touching each other in the nether-regions in the name of competition.
It got me to thinking about baseball.....because lots of things make me think about baseball....what would be the equivalent of a punch in the nose on the diamond? I guess it has to be homeruns. The late, great Ernie Harwell always noted the Tigers needed some "instant runs" and what better way for instant runs than a shot worthy of Ernie launching into a "Looooooong Gone!" homer call. The '68 Tigers hit their fair share, Cecil Fielder put on his show, and the '06 Tigers had a fairly deep crew of guys who could put one in the seats.
Where will the Tigers find their power this year? This question was on my mind when considering what decisions the Tigers would make about their bench situation this year. The Tigers had one player hit more than 15 homers in 2010. Miguel Cabrera had a great season but the Tigers were a bit deficient when it came to delivering that offensive punch in the face last year. "Fearsome" was not a word to describe the Tigers' attack very often. So it would seem like a good move to add a little power around the margins wherever it can be found.
The Tigers have a decision to make this year with how they will construct their bench. It appears that 4 outfielders are vying for 2 backup spots. Clete Thomas, Casper Wells, Brennan Boesch, and spring phenom Andy Dirks. With Don Kelly and Ramon Santiago looking like the backup infielders, which two of the outfield guys are going to venture north come the end of March to backup Austin Jackson, Magglio Ordonez, and Ryan Raburn? From this vantage point I just believe that Jim Leyland needs to add some power-potential wherever he can find it. (and OBP too...but his quotes regarding OBP aren't very re-assuring, so I'll concentrate on power and hope he agrees there at least!) Boesch is not the guy who looked Mantle-esque for two solid months last year....but he's also not likely to be the clueless windmill he showed down the stretch either. He has legit left-handed power. There is little question of this. If he can learn to lay off a breaking ball and start to control the strike zone he's a valuable commodity on the bench if he can also adjust to a part-time role. He has shown the ability is inside that tall lean frame....can the Tigers help him harness it on at least a semi-regular basis?
The other choice for me is Casper Wells. Wells also has some sock in his bat and he also is perfectly capable of playing all three outfield positions very well. His OBP track record for most of his minor league career is fairly equivalent to both Thomas and Dirks. Wells battled injury and posted poor numbers in AAA last year before playing pretty well in an exceedingly small sample in Detroit. But looking at Wells time in AA-Erie it appears that he has the skills to get on base and hit for some power. He does strike out a ton though....will big league pitchers eventually carve him up? Could be...but I'd give him the first shot and see what he can produce. If nothing else he is a good defender to put in place of Ordonez in the late innings.
Thomas and Dirks are both decent bets to see some time in Detroit this summer barring a trade here in Spring Training. However they are very similar players. Grinders...lefty bats with limited ceilings and not a ton of power. (though Dirks showed a bit more last year...perhaps he's growing into more than he showed early after getting drafted from Wichita State)
Beyond the bench contingent, it will be worth noting how Dave Dombrowski's off-season moves play out in the power department. Its a safe bet that if you pinned down a Front-Office Type from the Tigers they are betting on Victor Martinez being at least a 20+ homer guy (despite his power outage from the left side of late...a bit troubling until he proves its an aberration). Ryan Raburn has shown homerun power in the past and this is his shot at a full-time gig. Is 25 homers out of the realm of possibility? I don't think so. How many games can Magglio Ordonez compete in this year? Is he mostly a doubles hitter now? Can he find the seats 20+ times? I'm less sure of this....but I do believe Ordonez can continue to at least post his usual .370-ish OBP. Otherwise it boils down to Miguel Cabrera. When he's pitched to, he's awe-inspiring. Let's leave his "issues" aside for right now...he was the offense in '10. Matt Klaassen at Fangraphs said the other day (and I agree) that there really is no greater drop-off in baseball between a team's best hitter and its second best hitter l than there is in Detroit. Will anyone pitch to Miguel Cabrera this year? For those who believe in lineup "protection", is V-Mart the right guy? Certainly we all saw how Cabrera was neutralized during Boesch's huge slump last year when Leyland stubbornly stuck it out w/Boesch in the 5-hole. (not that there were a ton of alternatives) Intentional walks went way up for Cabrera....and the strategy worked far more often than the Intentional Walk should work for the Tigers opposition.
Other possible sources of power include the aging Brandon Inge and his creaky knees, the enigmatic Jhonny Peralta (in "The Best Shape of His Life!" whoo-hoo!), Alex Avila, and maybe Scott Sizemore. Inge has hit 25+ homers a couple of times in his career and Peralta is being banked on for his magic RBI-skills (puke) so that means they must be hoping he knocks a few in the seats.
So how many haymakers can the Tigers throw and land punches in the opposition's face next year via the homer? I'm betting they can beat last year's 152-HR total. I do believe they'll get a surprise season from someone like Raburn or Boesch and that V-Mart's 20 or 22 homers will add to the total as well. Mark down Cabrera for 35 minimum if not 40. All in all I'm going to say the Tigers have a good shot hitting 175+ homers in '11 and add a boost to their offense. If the pitching staff holds up its end of the bargain and a defense that has Twinkletoes Peralta at shortstop is at least passable, I think the Tigers have the power this year on offense to keep up with the Twins and White Sox in order to have their shot come September.
The Tigers won't be vintage George Foreman fiercely throwing punches into the grill of Joe Frazier.....but I think they'll throw enough of those punches that TEO would think they could take down the average college wrestler.
The Effervescent One: "What's college wrestling?"
Me: "Take a look...those two guys are on the mat wrestling. What do you think?"
TEO: "Why are they messin' around....I'd just punch him the face and be done."
Me: "I appreciate your desire for efficiency."
So.....its probably worth another post someday on Iowa's abnormal love of wrestling to note that PBS in Iowa televises wrestling instead of "Frontline" or "Masterpiece Theater". But what struck me was how happy my 7-yr old daughter, The Effervescent One (TEO), made me by sizing up that situation and figuring out there was a lot of unnecessary stuff going on there. A simple punch in the face would solve a lot of things instead of the rolling around touching each other in the nether-regions in the name of competition.
It got me to thinking about baseball.....because lots of things make me think about baseball....what would be the equivalent of a punch in the nose on the diamond? I guess it has to be homeruns. The late, great Ernie Harwell always noted the Tigers needed some "instant runs" and what better way for instant runs than a shot worthy of Ernie launching into a "Looooooong Gone!" homer call. The '68 Tigers hit their fair share, Cecil Fielder put on his show, and the '06 Tigers had a fairly deep crew of guys who could put one in the seats.
Where will the Tigers find their power this year? This question was on my mind when considering what decisions the Tigers would make about their bench situation this year. The Tigers had one player hit more than 15 homers in 2010. Miguel Cabrera had a great season but the Tigers were a bit deficient when it came to delivering that offensive punch in the face last year. "Fearsome" was not a word to describe the Tigers' attack very often. So it would seem like a good move to add a little power around the margins wherever it can be found.
The Tigers have a decision to make this year with how they will construct their bench. It appears that 4 outfielders are vying for 2 backup spots. Clete Thomas, Casper Wells, Brennan Boesch, and spring phenom Andy Dirks. With Don Kelly and Ramon Santiago looking like the backup infielders, which two of the outfield guys are going to venture north come the end of March to backup Austin Jackson, Magglio Ordonez, and Ryan Raburn? From this vantage point I just believe that Jim Leyland needs to add some power-potential wherever he can find it. (and OBP too...but his quotes regarding OBP aren't very re-assuring, so I'll concentrate on power and hope he agrees there at least!) Boesch is not the guy who looked Mantle-esque for two solid months last year....but he's also not likely to be the clueless windmill he showed down the stretch either. He has legit left-handed power. There is little question of this. If he can learn to lay off a breaking ball and start to control the strike zone he's a valuable commodity on the bench if he can also adjust to a part-time role. He has shown the ability is inside that tall lean frame....can the Tigers help him harness it on at least a semi-regular basis?
The other choice for me is Casper Wells. Wells also has some sock in his bat and he also is perfectly capable of playing all three outfield positions very well. His OBP track record for most of his minor league career is fairly equivalent to both Thomas and Dirks. Wells battled injury and posted poor numbers in AAA last year before playing pretty well in an exceedingly small sample in Detroit. But looking at Wells time in AA-Erie it appears that he has the skills to get on base and hit for some power. He does strike out a ton though....will big league pitchers eventually carve him up? Could be...but I'd give him the first shot and see what he can produce. If nothing else he is a good defender to put in place of Ordonez in the late innings.
Thomas and Dirks are both decent bets to see some time in Detroit this summer barring a trade here in Spring Training. However they are very similar players. Grinders...lefty bats with limited ceilings and not a ton of power. (though Dirks showed a bit more last year...perhaps he's growing into more than he showed early after getting drafted from Wichita State)
Beyond the bench contingent, it will be worth noting how Dave Dombrowski's off-season moves play out in the power department. Its a safe bet that if you pinned down a Front-Office Type from the Tigers they are betting on Victor Martinez being at least a 20+ homer guy (despite his power outage from the left side of late...a bit troubling until he proves its an aberration). Ryan Raburn has shown homerun power in the past and this is his shot at a full-time gig. Is 25 homers out of the realm of possibility? I don't think so. How many games can Magglio Ordonez compete in this year? Is he mostly a doubles hitter now? Can he find the seats 20+ times? I'm less sure of this....but I do believe Ordonez can continue to at least post his usual .370-ish OBP. Otherwise it boils down to Miguel Cabrera. When he's pitched to, he's awe-inspiring. Let's leave his "issues" aside for right now...he was the offense in '10. Matt Klaassen at Fangraphs said the other day (and I agree) that there really is no greater drop-off in baseball between a team's best hitter and its second best hitter l than there is in Detroit. Will anyone pitch to Miguel Cabrera this year? For those who believe in lineup "protection", is V-Mart the right guy? Certainly we all saw how Cabrera was neutralized during Boesch's huge slump last year when Leyland stubbornly stuck it out w/Boesch in the 5-hole. (not that there were a ton of alternatives) Intentional walks went way up for Cabrera....and the strategy worked far more often than the Intentional Walk should work for the Tigers opposition.
Other possible sources of power include the aging Brandon Inge and his creaky knees, the enigmatic Jhonny Peralta (in "The Best Shape of His Life!" whoo-hoo!), Alex Avila, and maybe Scott Sizemore. Inge has hit 25+ homers a couple of times in his career and Peralta is being banked on for his magic RBI-skills (puke) so that means they must be hoping he knocks a few in the seats.
So how many haymakers can the Tigers throw and land punches in the opposition's face next year via the homer? I'm betting they can beat last year's 152-HR total. I do believe they'll get a surprise season from someone like Raburn or Boesch and that V-Mart's 20 or 22 homers will add to the total as well. Mark down Cabrera for 35 minimum if not 40. All in all I'm going to say the Tigers have a good shot hitting 175+ homers in '11 and add a boost to their offense. If the pitching staff holds up its end of the bargain and a defense that has Twinkletoes Peralta at shortstop is at least passable, I think the Tigers have the power this year on offense to keep up with the Twins and White Sox in order to have their shot come September.
The Tigers won't be vintage George Foreman fiercely throwing punches into the grill of Joe Frazier.....but I think they'll throw enough of those punches that TEO would think they could take down the average college wrestler.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Athletes and Chances
For better or for worse, if you have an athletic skill above the norm, you're going to get chances a mere mortal won't.
The chatter over the new video of Miguel Cabrera was on my mind a little today when a bit of a local controversy hit here in Iowa. The University of Iowa is close to recruiting a major JUCO transfer for next year's basketball team. The guy is 25-yrs old and averaged 22 pts and 12 boards this year. Why is he a JUCO guy at the age of 25? Well...37 months in the penitentiary for armed robbery where shots were fired will set your hoops career on hold for a while. Some folks are up in arms that a guy with this record will get an Iowa scholarship and wear the Hawkeye colors. But the bigger facts are that Iowa has a new coach, they've been losing at basketball for a while, and did I mention he can score 20 and collect 10+ rebounds? They probably wouldn't be recruiting him to be the backup small forward....but he might be the new starting power forward. They say he's turned his life around...but a few years ago he was very capable of putting people's life in danger. If he says "yes" he'll be eating at the training table in Iowa City next Fall.
There are lots of stories like this. Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers is more proof that even if you have a good program surrounding a guy there is no guarantee he won't stray to drugs/alcohol some evening when you least expect it.
Cabrera has a disease. He has to face it. For himself, his family, his team, for the safety of the community....and he might be be facing his alcoholism (yes....I assume he's an alcoholic. Dave Dombrowski used the word even if Cabrera cannot seem to bring himself to say it in public..hopefully in private he does). We aren't there. I assume the Tigers will be working their tails off to help him. They better.
But in the end....he's here to hit. He's the offense. There is no club in baseball that has a bigger drop off from their best offensive player to their second best offensive player. (read that point today by Matt Klaassen at FanGraphs, I have to agree) The Tigers are committed to him and his deal. He's going to get every chance. He'll get another chance if he messes up again (assuming no one is hurt or worse and no jail time is involved).
We'll hope for the best.
The chatter over the new video of Miguel Cabrera was on my mind a little today when a bit of a local controversy hit here in Iowa. The University of Iowa is close to recruiting a major JUCO transfer for next year's basketball team. The guy is 25-yrs old and averaged 22 pts and 12 boards this year. Why is he a JUCO guy at the age of 25? Well...37 months in the penitentiary for armed robbery where shots were fired will set your hoops career on hold for a while. Some folks are up in arms that a guy with this record will get an Iowa scholarship and wear the Hawkeye colors. But the bigger facts are that Iowa has a new coach, they've been losing at basketball for a while, and did I mention he can score 20 and collect 10+ rebounds? They probably wouldn't be recruiting him to be the backup small forward....but he might be the new starting power forward. They say he's turned his life around...but a few years ago he was very capable of putting people's life in danger. If he says "yes" he'll be eating at the training table in Iowa City next Fall.
There are lots of stories like this. Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers is more proof that even if you have a good program surrounding a guy there is no guarantee he won't stray to drugs/alcohol some evening when you least expect it.
Cabrera has a disease. He has to face it. For himself, his family, his team, for the safety of the community....and he might be be facing his alcoholism (yes....I assume he's an alcoholic. Dave Dombrowski used the word even if Cabrera cannot seem to bring himself to say it in public..hopefully in private he does). We aren't there. I assume the Tigers will be working their tails off to help him. They better.
But in the end....he's here to hit. He's the offense. There is no club in baseball that has a bigger drop off from their best offensive player to their second best offensive player. (read that point today by Matt Klaassen at FanGraphs, I have to agree) The Tigers are committed to him and his deal. He's going to get every chance. He'll get another chance if he messes up again (assuming no one is hurt or worse and no jail time is involved).
We'll hope for the best.
Small Victory.....Steep Cost
***WARNING...this post will go into issues centered around the MLB Draft. I'm aware that to many folks this makes the eyes glaze-over. Unless you're a prospect junkie or part of that small, yet fierce, tribe known as college baseball fans, the MLB Draft is mostly about a bunch of guys you've never heard of and probably never will. Move on to another post if its not your cup of tea!***
In Game 162 of the 2010 season the Tigers faced off with the Baltimore Orioles to put a wrap on another campaign. The Orioles were firmly ensconced in the lower depths of the AL East despite having played a couple of months of inspired baseball under Buck Showalter. The Tigers had wilted over the course of the season's second half after topping out at 48-37 and first place in early July. They stood at 80-81 as the first pitch was tossed. Was I watching? Sadly, yes. My life includes taking some pride in watching my club play out the string.
On the surface, little was at stake. The "pride" in finishing at .500 was something for the Tigers to play for I suppose. However in reality....would anyone really feel better about the season at 81 wins over 80? On some level I can see that and probably have felt that way in the past. But around MLB that day, a Perfect Storm was taking shape.......could the Tigers take advantage of it? Did they know a loss was the way to do it?
While Brandon Inge was hitting a key homer and Daniel Schlereth was whetting our appetites for the next season with a solid multi-inning outing where he "earned" the win, all the right clubs were winning/losing around the league to affect the draft order for this June's Rule 4 Draft in considerable fashion. The Oakland Athletics won to move their record to 81-81. The Dodgers, Marlins, and Angels all won as well to move their respective records to 80-82. A simple Tigers loss to leave them at 80-82 would have put the Tigers ahead of the all these teams in the 2011 draft due to tie-breakers. However the victory in this meaningless game put the Tigers behind every one of them with the 19th pick in the draft. A loss would have vaulted them over the 4 teams in question plus ahead of comp-pick to the Brewers.....this would have put the Tigers picking 14th overall.
Big deal you might say. What could possibly be worth the worry? Well....winning that game was like kid winning the ticket for the Titanic before it shipped off (Okay...okay...not THAT bad...nobody is going to die over draft order....but allow me some internet hyperbole)....because winning gave the Tigers the very first unprotected first round draft pick for Type A free agent compensation in the upcoming off-season. Therefore the Tigers were in danger of losing this pick if they were to sign a Type A free agent. (like Victor Martinez perhaps? Well yes, precisely like Victor Martinez)
Coupled with all of this action on the field was the continuing hype (which has not abated) of how loaded the 2011 Draft was shaping up to be. Best draft in years by the accounts of most folks who follow these sort of things for a living. College ace pitchers? Check...a bunch of 'em. Big hitting corner infielders? Check. Big armed high school phenoms? You bet. With apologies to the person that answered a chat question from me who I cannot remember....(Bryan Smith? Kevin Goldstein? Sorry...don't recall now) the quote from this mystery writer was "The 60th pick in '11 draft will have comparable talent to the 30th pick in the '10 draft." This is the pick the Tigers were in danger of losing on that day......and winning a 4-2 meaningless ballgame did just that.
Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski acted in November to sign Martinez. The pick is now property of the Boston Red Sox. The 14th pick, had the Tigers lost, is now owned by the Florida Marlins. The Tigers first pick in this talent bonanza you ask? Think "Randy Moss".....#84. (the Rays have 13 of the first 90 picks to the Tigers lone selection btw....I love the Rays! What a great bunch in charge down there. I don't know how many of those picks they'll sign but the flood of talent will likely sustain the great work they've done the last few years)
This will be the second straight season the Tigers have forfeited the #19 overall pick in the draft. They signed Jose Valverde last year before inking V-Mart. Yes, the Tigers ended up claiming to have gotten a guy way up on their draft board anyhow in Nick Castellanos.....but the Tigers are low in the organizational rankings right now and this doesn't seem likely to change by giving up first round picks. Especially for mere Closers and 32+ year old Catcher/DH guys. Do you have to apologize for signing good players like this? Perhaps not....but there is a cost associated with the moves beyond the simple contract terms that many fans only take into account.
Debating whether or not Dombrowski should be losing his early picks is one thing and probably the subject of another post. The point here was that a seemingly nice little moment....a win to wrap up the season....finishing .500 instead of the alternative.....getting a nice performance from a possible key young pitcher for the future....really cost the Tigers the chance to bring aboard a very solid young talent in this upcoming draft. There is little question that the player selected at #14 this year will have a very solid pedigree. Perhaps Matt Barnes from UConn a righty starting pitcher, or Jack Bradley a good looking OF'er from South Carolina. Or maybe the Tigers select prep phenom Bubba Starling and throw Mike Ilitch's check book in his face and sign this incredible athlete away from his college commitment at Nebraska. We'll never know what the Tigers might have done.....
It was hard to root against the Tigers that day. Goes against one's nature. Despite his pronounced flaws, I'm a Brandon Inge fan from way back. I smiled while I shook my head as that homer he hit flew into the cheap seats at Oriole Park. Perhaps in the long run it won't matter and will be just a footnote in history. I do believe the Tigers have a legit playoff run in them during the upcoming corridor of the '11 thru '14 seasons while they have Verlander, Scherzer, and Porcello under team control with Jacob Turner and Andy Oliver coming along. If that happens many won't care the Tigers missed on picking some faceless amateur prospect. But, dammit, I REALLY wanted to see who Tigers' draft director David Chadd was going to pursue in the first round of THIS draft when so much talent was bubbling up. This is the kind of year that a first round pick might really yield a guy that can change fortunes.
When is Opening Day? I need some baseball that counts so I can move on!
In Game 162 of the 2010 season the Tigers faced off with the Baltimore Orioles to put a wrap on another campaign. The Orioles were firmly ensconced in the lower depths of the AL East despite having played a couple of months of inspired baseball under Buck Showalter. The Tigers had wilted over the course of the season's second half after topping out at 48-37 and first place in early July. They stood at 80-81 as the first pitch was tossed. Was I watching? Sadly, yes. My life includes taking some pride in watching my club play out the string.
On the surface, little was at stake. The "pride" in finishing at .500 was something for the Tigers to play for I suppose. However in reality....would anyone really feel better about the season at 81 wins over 80? On some level I can see that and probably have felt that way in the past. But around MLB that day, a Perfect Storm was taking shape.......could the Tigers take advantage of it? Did they know a loss was the way to do it?
While Brandon Inge was hitting a key homer and Daniel Schlereth was whetting our appetites for the next season with a solid multi-inning outing where he "earned" the win, all the right clubs were winning/losing around the league to affect the draft order for this June's Rule 4 Draft in considerable fashion. The Oakland Athletics won to move their record to 81-81. The Dodgers, Marlins, and Angels all won as well to move their respective records to 80-82. A simple Tigers loss to leave them at 80-82 would have put the Tigers ahead of the all these teams in the 2011 draft due to tie-breakers. However the victory in this meaningless game put the Tigers behind every one of them with the 19th pick in the draft. A loss would have vaulted them over the 4 teams in question plus ahead of comp-pick to the Brewers.....this would have put the Tigers picking 14th overall.
Big deal you might say. What could possibly be worth the worry? Well....winning that game was like kid winning the ticket for the Titanic before it shipped off (Okay...okay...not THAT bad...nobody is going to die over draft order....but allow me some internet hyperbole)....because winning gave the Tigers the very first unprotected first round draft pick for Type A free agent compensation in the upcoming off-season. Therefore the Tigers were in danger of losing this pick if they were to sign a Type A free agent. (like Victor Martinez perhaps? Well yes, precisely like Victor Martinez)
Coupled with all of this action on the field was the continuing hype (which has not abated) of how loaded the 2011 Draft was shaping up to be. Best draft in years by the accounts of most folks who follow these sort of things for a living. College ace pitchers? Check...a bunch of 'em. Big hitting corner infielders? Check. Big armed high school phenoms? You bet. With apologies to the person that answered a chat question from me who I cannot remember....(Bryan Smith? Kevin Goldstein? Sorry...don't recall now) the quote from this mystery writer was "The 60th pick in '11 draft will have comparable talent to the 30th pick in the '10 draft." This is the pick the Tigers were in danger of losing on that day......and winning a 4-2 meaningless ballgame did just that.
Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski acted in November to sign Martinez. The pick is now property of the Boston Red Sox. The 14th pick, had the Tigers lost, is now owned by the Florida Marlins. The Tigers first pick in this talent bonanza you ask? Think "Randy Moss".....#84. (the Rays have 13 of the first 90 picks to the Tigers lone selection btw....I love the Rays! What a great bunch in charge down there. I don't know how many of those picks they'll sign but the flood of talent will likely sustain the great work they've done the last few years)
This will be the second straight season the Tigers have forfeited the #19 overall pick in the draft. They signed Jose Valverde last year before inking V-Mart. Yes, the Tigers ended up claiming to have gotten a guy way up on their draft board anyhow in Nick Castellanos.....but the Tigers are low in the organizational rankings right now and this doesn't seem likely to change by giving up first round picks. Especially for mere Closers and 32+ year old Catcher/DH guys. Do you have to apologize for signing good players like this? Perhaps not....but there is a cost associated with the moves beyond the simple contract terms that many fans only take into account.
Debating whether or not Dombrowski should be losing his early picks is one thing and probably the subject of another post. The point here was that a seemingly nice little moment....a win to wrap up the season....finishing .500 instead of the alternative.....getting a nice performance from a possible key young pitcher for the future....really cost the Tigers the chance to bring aboard a very solid young talent in this upcoming draft. There is little question that the player selected at #14 this year will have a very solid pedigree. Perhaps Matt Barnes from UConn a righty starting pitcher, or Jack Bradley a good looking OF'er from South Carolina. Or maybe the Tigers select prep phenom Bubba Starling and throw Mike Ilitch's check book in his face and sign this incredible athlete away from his college commitment at Nebraska. We'll never know what the Tigers might have done.....
It was hard to root against the Tigers that day. Goes against one's nature. Despite his pronounced flaws, I'm a Brandon Inge fan from way back. I smiled while I shook my head as that homer he hit flew into the cheap seats at Oriole Park. Perhaps in the long run it won't matter and will be just a footnote in history. I do believe the Tigers have a legit playoff run in them during the upcoming corridor of the '11 thru '14 seasons while they have Verlander, Scherzer, and Porcello under team control with Jacob Turner and Andy Oliver coming along. If that happens many won't care the Tigers missed on picking some faceless amateur prospect. But, dammit, I REALLY wanted to see who Tigers' draft director David Chadd was going to pursue in the first round of THIS draft when so much talent was bubbling up. This is the kind of year that a first round pick might really yield a guy that can change fortunes.
When is Opening Day? I need some baseball that counts so I can move on!
Monday, March 7, 2011
The Andy-man Can!
Andy Dirks can leap tall buildings in a single bound!
Andy Dirks has negotiated an end to NFL labor strife.
Andy Dirks is designing an electric car people actually might want.
Andy Dirks is hunting down Ghaddafi in his spare time.
On the 8th day God created Andy Dirks.
Dirks will replace Oprah next season.
Andy Dirks was on the grassy knoll.
Warren Buffet is looking to Andy Dirks for financial advice.
Screw Charlie Sheen, Andy Dirks truly has "Tiger Blood"!
Andy Dirks has made Wichita State forget the greatness of Nate Robertson.
Andy Dirks is helping Jim Leyland stop smoking.
Its good to be the unheralded guy ripping it up in Spring Training. How long will it last?
Andy Dirks has negotiated an end to NFL labor strife.
Andy Dirks is designing an electric car people actually might want.
Andy Dirks is hunting down Ghaddafi in his spare time.
On the 8th day God created Andy Dirks.
Dirks will replace Oprah next season.
Andy Dirks was on the grassy knoll.
Warren Buffet is looking to Andy Dirks for financial advice.
Screw Charlie Sheen, Andy Dirks truly has "Tiger Blood"!
Andy Dirks has made Wichita State forget the greatness of Nate Robertson.
Andy Dirks is helping Jim Leyland stop smoking.
Its good to be the unheralded guy ripping it up in Spring Training. How long will it last?
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Detroit's shot at improvement lies with the youngsters
Al Kaline was quoted last year that that the Tigers had perhaps the best collection of young talent on hand that he'd seen in his several decades with the organization. Many wrote that off as hyperbole from a legend who is also a good company-man. But, at the end of the day, Kaline has seen a lot in his years and if he thinks there is talent suiting up, maybe he gets the benefit of the doubt.
When this observer looks at the Tigers for 2011 it just appears certain to me that the Tigers know, within some degree of certainty, what the established stars are going to produce. Justin Verlander is the workhorse and as long as he's healthy the Tigers know that every 5th day an established Ace is on the hill. Miguel Cabrera, despite the recent DUI, is the rock of the offense. He's been highly durable in his career and extremely productive. Just pencil him in. Magglio Ordonez has shown what he can do at the plate....how many games will he be available is the only question. Victor Martinez is a solid bet to be the V-Mart we've seen in the AL for several years. Jose Valverde will be strutting his "El Papa Grande" stuff. None of these players are great bets to bust out to another level of production perhaps...but all are safe bets to keep performing as we've seen. Beyond the high performing talent there are vets like Inge and Peralta who aren't star but have established a track record of performance that can be banked upon (insert your Inge-one-liner here!).
Its the next level of talent where the Tigers need to see a solid percentage of players take the next step and show progression in their skill level and productivity. Thankfully for Tigers fans, the list is fairly long to choose from. Austin Jackson, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Ryan Perry, Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch, Casper Wells, Scott Sizemore, Ryan Strieby, Daniel Schlereth, Robbie Weinhardt, Brayan Villarreal, Charlie Furbush, Andy Oliver, and so on...
Look at that list and take a guess how many will really take a positive step forward. Whatever total you guess is probably in direct proportion to what you think the Tigers chances at contention is this season. Let's look at a few individuals and assess their chances:
Scott Sizemore: Played hurt early, struggled, sent to Toledo. He went back to raking at Toledo and came back to Detroit and showed a little better toward the end of the year. This year he's completely healthy and hopes to be ready to claim a gig. He has a bit of extra-base power that would be excellent to see flourish at the MLB level. Something that Will Rhymes can't provide and really Placido Polanco didn't his final two season in Detroit either. If Sizemore can post a slash-line in the .275/.350/.425 range the Tigers will have some solid production out of the 2B position for the first time since Polanco's '07 season.
Austin Jackson: A solid rookie campaign led to a second place spot in ROY voting. Much has been made of the "luck" of his BABIP (batting average-balls in play) and how that is unsustainable. Perhaps so. But that assumes he won't make any progress in other parts of his game. He may cut down on the K's, increase the BB-rate, and mature in a tad more power. If he does those things it would be mitigate any regression in his BABIP. Last year he drilled a high percentage of line drives as well...can he keep centering the ball at such a great clip? If the answer is yes and he shows growth in other phases of his offensive game the Tigers will have a true weapon on their hands. I would rate Jackson as still a very volatile stock though. Cutting down the K-rate can be very challenging...not every player does. If his OBP falls much from last year's .345 he's then not a very effective leadoff hitter. Jackson is also a great defender and that is key for a newcomer to the rotation like Phil Coke who is a flyball pitcher.
Rick Porcello: Posted about him in the previous entry. Suffice it to say, if he can continue to show the command he did after his Toledo sojourn (14 BB in 92 IP) his chances of success go up. If he can raise his K-rate from the pedestrian levels it has been at , then a star could be born. Will the Tigers take the shackles off his repertoire this year? He's thrown 70+% fastballs to this point in his career. Will the curve/change-up be seen more this season?
Max Scherzer: Quite simple....were the final 4 months the Real Scherzer? If so....not much more needs be said.
Brennan Boesch: An All-Star for two months....a high-schooler dropped into MLB for the final two+ months. Which guy comes back in '11. Will it be merely someone in the middle? Probably. The guy has legit lefty power. That is a scarce resource and one worth giving every opportunity to succeed. He'll get it this year....will he make anything of it?
Ryan Perry: He has shown glimpses of justifying the first round draft status. He has also not kept a head of steam up and struggled at times. Command can get spotty and he ends up grooving one to get it over the plate. This is one case where I feel Rick Knapp needs to show why Pitching Coach's have an effect. Perry has Closer-stuff....will he get his performance to that level?
Alex Avila: He started to show the defensive chops last year. Avila has a gun and looked pretty solid blocking balls in the dirt. His batting average was awful but the good thing was that he kept his OBP around 100 points higher than his BA most of the year. The ability to work a walk shows some plate presence. If his power re-surfaces and he starts to have a few more balls find holes I think he could develop into a left-handed Kurt Suzuki type of offensive player. That's a player you can win with behind the plate.
Andy Oliver: Initial reports this spring are excellent. He could arrive before Memorial Day in Detroit if he gets off to a good start in the minors. If he starts to throw his off-speed pitches for strikes (good strikes...not meatballs) then the Tigers will have blown the doors off of a second round pick. Many folks forget (or never knew if you don't follow the MLB draft process) that Andy Oliver was projected for the Top 10 overall of his draft year.....but during his final year and half at Oklahoma State he became embroiled in a legal fight with the NCAA over representation. He was nearly suspended only to get reinstated late. This may have led to his iffy final year in college that saw his stock drop a bit. This legal spat w/the NCAA may have enabled the Tigers to cash in for a player that otherwise never would have been there for them.
The list could on...but the idea is clear. The Tigers have some young players that can be legitimately expected to improve and potentially improve a lot. If enough of them make the jump and add to what can be expected from the established stars then the Tigers should contend. Kaline is right...there is a lot of youth to dream on in the Tigers camp. Their respective ceilings of performance is not established and might be higher than some think. The proof is in the pudding....we'll see what happens.
When this observer looks at the Tigers for 2011 it just appears certain to me that the Tigers know, within some degree of certainty, what the established stars are going to produce. Justin Verlander is the workhorse and as long as he's healthy the Tigers know that every 5th day an established Ace is on the hill. Miguel Cabrera, despite the recent DUI, is the rock of the offense. He's been highly durable in his career and extremely productive. Just pencil him in. Magglio Ordonez has shown what he can do at the plate....how many games will he be available is the only question. Victor Martinez is a solid bet to be the V-Mart we've seen in the AL for several years. Jose Valverde will be strutting his "El Papa Grande" stuff. None of these players are great bets to bust out to another level of production perhaps...but all are safe bets to keep performing as we've seen. Beyond the high performing talent there are vets like Inge and Peralta who aren't star but have established a track record of performance that can be banked upon (insert your Inge-one-liner here!).
Its the next level of talent where the Tigers need to see a solid percentage of players take the next step and show progression in their skill level and productivity. Thankfully for Tigers fans, the list is fairly long to choose from. Austin Jackson, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Ryan Perry, Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch, Casper Wells, Scott Sizemore, Ryan Strieby, Daniel Schlereth, Robbie Weinhardt, Brayan Villarreal, Charlie Furbush, Andy Oliver, and so on...
Look at that list and take a guess how many will really take a positive step forward. Whatever total you guess is probably in direct proportion to what you think the Tigers chances at contention is this season. Let's look at a few individuals and assess their chances:
Scott Sizemore: Played hurt early, struggled, sent to Toledo. He went back to raking at Toledo and came back to Detroit and showed a little better toward the end of the year. This year he's completely healthy and hopes to be ready to claim a gig. He has a bit of extra-base power that would be excellent to see flourish at the MLB level. Something that Will Rhymes can't provide and really Placido Polanco didn't his final two season in Detroit either. If Sizemore can post a slash-line in the .275/.350/.425 range the Tigers will have some solid production out of the 2B position for the first time since Polanco's '07 season.
Austin Jackson: A solid rookie campaign led to a second place spot in ROY voting. Much has been made of the "luck" of his BABIP (batting average-balls in play) and how that is unsustainable. Perhaps so. But that assumes he won't make any progress in other parts of his game. He may cut down on the K's, increase the BB-rate, and mature in a tad more power. If he does those things it would be mitigate any regression in his BABIP. Last year he drilled a high percentage of line drives as well...can he keep centering the ball at such a great clip? If the answer is yes and he shows growth in other phases of his offensive game the Tigers will have a true weapon on their hands. I would rate Jackson as still a very volatile stock though. Cutting down the K-rate can be very challenging...not every player does. If his OBP falls much from last year's .345 he's then not a very effective leadoff hitter. Jackson is also a great defender and that is key for a newcomer to the rotation like Phil Coke who is a flyball pitcher.
Rick Porcello: Posted about him in the previous entry. Suffice it to say, if he can continue to show the command he did after his Toledo sojourn (14 BB in 92 IP) his chances of success go up. If he can raise his K-rate from the pedestrian levels it has been at , then a star could be born. Will the Tigers take the shackles off his repertoire this year? He's thrown 70+% fastballs to this point in his career. Will the curve/change-up be seen more this season?
Max Scherzer: Quite simple....were the final 4 months the Real Scherzer? If so....not much more needs be said.
Brennan Boesch: An All-Star for two months....a high-schooler dropped into MLB for the final two+ months. Which guy comes back in '11. Will it be merely someone in the middle? Probably. The guy has legit lefty power. That is a scarce resource and one worth giving every opportunity to succeed. He'll get it this year....will he make anything of it?
Ryan Perry: He has shown glimpses of justifying the first round draft status. He has also not kept a head of steam up and struggled at times. Command can get spotty and he ends up grooving one to get it over the plate. This is one case where I feel Rick Knapp needs to show why Pitching Coach's have an effect. Perry has Closer-stuff....will he get his performance to that level?
Alex Avila: He started to show the defensive chops last year. Avila has a gun and looked pretty solid blocking balls in the dirt. His batting average was awful but the good thing was that he kept his OBP around 100 points higher than his BA most of the year. The ability to work a walk shows some plate presence. If his power re-surfaces and he starts to have a few more balls find holes I think he could develop into a left-handed Kurt Suzuki type of offensive player. That's a player you can win with behind the plate.
Andy Oliver: Initial reports this spring are excellent. He could arrive before Memorial Day in Detroit if he gets off to a good start in the minors. If he starts to throw his off-speed pitches for strikes (good strikes...not meatballs) then the Tigers will have blown the doors off of a second round pick. Many folks forget (or never knew if you don't follow the MLB draft process) that Andy Oliver was projected for the Top 10 overall of his draft year.....but during his final year and half at Oklahoma State he became embroiled in a legal fight with the NCAA over representation. He was nearly suspended only to get reinstated late. This may have led to his iffy final year in college that saw his stock drop a bit. This legal spat w/the NCAA may have enabled the Tigers to cash in for a player that otherwise never would have been there for them.
The list could on...but the idea is clear. The Tigers have some young players that can be legitimately expected to improve and potentially improve a lot. If enough of them make the jump and add to what can be expected from the established stars then the Tigers should contend. Kaline is right...there is a lot of youth to dream on in the Tigers camp. Their respective ceilings of performance is not established and might be higher than some think. The proof is in the pudding....we'll see what happens.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
The Tigers Rotation---The Key to 2011?
Dave Dombrowski has made a big change in the future fortunes of the Detroit Tigers' rotation. There are no more bloated long term commitments providing too much ballast to the payroll. Only Justin Verlander has an expensive contract and he has proven to be a pretty solid workhorse. The rest of the Tigers rotation (and all possible replacement depth) is under team control at extremely low rates for the next few years. Dombrowski has pivoted away from expensive starting pitching to young talented cheap starting pitching. If this young cadre of arms hits expectations the Tigers will be in a very advantageous payroll position in the next few years. The most expensive and hard to find commodity in baseball will be under control at cheaper rates...this should allow him to spend some money on position players. Here is a look at the Tigers rotation for 2011:
1. Justin Verlander-- Probably the best pitcher in the AL Central and perhaps one of baseball's 6 or 8 best. Certainly no club with him at the head of a rotation needs to issue apologies for being happy w/their ace. A workhorse to this point in his career for the modern game. Throws 120+ pitches more than just about anyone. Has stayed strong late into the season two years in a row. 2008 "clunker" really wasn't as bad as the W/L record, though it was a low point. Signed long term. Seems very competitive in nature. Its interesting to wonder how high he can go? Is there another gear we haven't seen? Or will the workload catch up one year?
2. Max Scherzer-- I'll never believe he was available in trade at his age/cost/talent-level. Stunning move by Dombrowski to get that trade done. Started out w/an "okay" first four starts before getting hammered relentlessly for the next 4 starts...sent to Toledo, fixed his arm slot, came back to dominate from May 31st forward. Not afraid to pitch inside...mean slider...."show me" changeup that seemed to get a touch better late...nasty heater said to have "late life". Seems to have cleaned up the messy mechanics he was said to have in college at Mizzou....you don't hear that much anymore. Most feel the D-Backs traded him because they felt he wouldn't hold up health-wise. So far so good for the Tigers. A great complement to Verlander.
3. Rick Porcello---the young phenom probably learned a lot last year. He didn't fold up the tent after struggling and heading to Toledo. No reason to treat that as anything but a positive sign...he didn't bury his head in the sand. Biggest problem on paper seems to be a lack of K's....not many starters have success long term with K-rates around 4.50 which is where he hovers. However go back to game 163 in '09. He showed the heat and ability to go upstairs and miss bats. If a few more K's become a part of his repertoire in addition to his groundball tendencies then the Tigers have a budding Ace. Porcello was among a small handful of pitchers who throw their fastball more than 70% of the time.....so the Tigers limit his arsenal at times and that probably is sensible on a 21-yr old arm. If they unleash his curve and changeup a bit more some good things are going to happen I believe. If the K's stay low then they probably "only" have a mid-to-late rotation guy...which is okay but doesn't match the draft status and prospect hype. We'll see how it goes.
4. Phil Coke---Three pitch guy with enough velocity from the left-side to compete. Successful starter in AA-ball. No real reason he can't find success in the rotation if the Tigers remain patient. Pulling the plug after a month if he's struggling would be questionable....just let him pitch. I think he'll figure it out. Coke can follow in the footsteps of a long, and at times distinguished, list of guys who made the conversion to the rotation. A starter blows away the value of a reliever....let's hope Coke can make the switch.
5. Brad Penny---two questions: Can he stay healthy? Will the work with Dave Duncan that seemed to change his approach/results (over only 55 IP admittedly) hold up in the American League and with Duncan out of the picture? Rick Knapp....watch the tapes...give Duncan a call. Figure this out. If Penny can rip off a good season this rotation takes a step to another level....his motivation level to score a big deal next year should be high. I'd be surprised if both Coke and Penny have solid seasons...but I don't think the Tigers need both to succeed. If one steps in and supports the JV/MS/RP troika things will be fine.
6. Andy Oliver---Solid lefty prospect. Has the velocity to compete on the big league level. Can he harness it all and throw strikes? Remains to be seen. Many thought he was a Top 10 draft selection in the year prior to him coming out for the draft....but his lawsuit and other distractions through his final year at OK State into flux and he fell to the Tigers. His legal issues against the NCAA might end having really benefited the Tigers by making him available.
7. Charlie Furbush---Furbush had insane K/BB rates in High-A and very solid numbers in AA-Erie. He ran out of gas in Toledo but he was well above his career high in innings pitched when he got there. He might have been on fumes pitching for his third club of the summer. Overall it was a good year for a guy coming back from Tommy John Surgery. He's no star potential guy....but there is no reason he can't be the next Luke French or something even a touch better (he had better K-rates last year than French ever had). Good guy to have around in the system.
I felt last year that the Tigers would go as far Scherzer, Verlander, and Porcello would take them. To some extent that was true. Verlander did what he could do. Scherzer was great for 2/3rds of the year but not the whole way. Porcello didn't quite pitch to the necessary level. Certainly there were other issues the club encountered in '10 that cost them...no argument there....but it fell on those three to carry the load pitching-wise. Not much has changed.....I think Coke and Penny might be better bets than last year back-of-the-rotation crew but unless one really uncorks a humdinger of a year its incumbent on the top 3 guys to pull the bus.
The Tigers should have a decent bullpen supporting them if things come together....they have some injury risk in that 'pen but bullpens are flaky by nature all over the place, so you just cross your fingers and hope for the best. Defensively this might not be the Tigers best defensive club. Jackson and Raburn should be able to hold the fort in the outfield. Inge should still be an above average defender. We'll see how the rest of the infield coalesces. Scherzer and Verlander should strike out enough to marginalize some of those worries. Coke is a flyball guy, so the infield shouldn't kill him either. So it boils down to the groundball pitchers...Porcello and Penny. Will the Tigers' infield support these two enough might as important a question as there is for this ballclub this year.
The Tigers have enough talent in this rotation to compete. Assuming decent health, they can get it done on the hill.
1. Justin Verlander-- Probably the best pitcher in the AL Central and perhaps one of baseball's 6 or 8 best. Certainly no club with him at the head of a rotation needs to issue apologies for being happy w/their ace. A workhorse to this point in his career for the modern game. Throws 120+ pitches more than just about anyone. Has stayed strong late into the season two years in a row. 2008 "clunker" really wasn't as bad as the W/L record, though it was a low point. Signed long term. Seems very competitive in nature. Its interesting to wonder how high he can go? Is there another gear we haven't seen? Or will the workload catch up one year?
2. Max Scherzer-- I'll never believe he was available in trade at his age/cost/talent-level. Stunning move by Dombrowski to get that trade done. Started out w/an "okay" first four starts before getting hammered relentlessly for the next 4 starts...sent to Toledo, fixed his arm slot, came back to dominate from May 31st forward. Not afraid to pitch inside...mean slider...."show me" changeup that seemed to get a touch better late...nasty heater said to have "late life". Seems to have cleaned up the messy mechanics he was said to have in college at Mizzou....you don't hear that much anymore. Most feel the D-Backs traded him because they felt he wouldn't hold up health-wise. So far so good for the Tigers. A great complement to Verlander.
3. Rick Porcello---the young phenom probably learned a lot last year. He didn't fold up the tent after struggling and heading to Toledo. No reason to treat that as anything but a positive sign...he didn't bury his head in the sand. Biggest problem on paper seems to be a lack of K's....not many starters have success long term with K-rates around 4.50 which is where he hovers. However go back to game 163 in '09. He showed the heat and ability to go upstairs and miss bats. If a few more K's become a part of his repertoire in addition to his groundball tendencies then the Tigers have a budding Ace. Porcello was among a small handful of pitchers who throw their fastball more than 70% of the time.....so the Tigers limit his arsenal at times and that probably is sensible on a 21-yr old arm. If they unleash his curve and changeup a bit more some good things are going to happen I believe. If the K's stay low then they probably "only" have a mid-to-late rotation guy...which is okay but doesn't match the draft status and prospect hype. We'll see how it goes.
4. Phil Coke---Three pitch guy with enough velocity from the left-side to compete. Successful starter in AA-ball. No real reason he can't find success in the rotation if the Tigers remain patient. Pulling the plug after a month if he's struggling would be questionable....just let him pitch. I think he'll figure it out. Coke can follow in the footsteps of a long, and at times distinguished, list of guys who made the conversion to the rotation. A starter blows away the value of a reliever....let's hope Coke can make the switch.
5. Brad Penny---two questions: Can he stay healthy? Will the work with Dave Duncan that seemed to change his approach/results (over only 55 IP admittedly) hold up in the American League and with Duncan out of the picture? Rick Knapp....watch the tapes...give Duncan a call. Figure this out. If Penny can rip off a good season this rotation takes a step to another level....his motivation level to score a big deal next year should be high. I'd be surprised if both Coke and Penny have solid seasons...but I don't think the Tigers need both to succeed. If one steps in and supports the JV/MS/RP troika things will be fine.
6. Andy Oliver---Solid lefty prospect. Has the velocity to compete on the big league level. Can he harness it all and throw strikes? Remains to be seen. Many thought he was a Top 10 draft selection in the year prior to him coming out for the draft....but his lawsuit and other distractions through his final year at OK State into flux and he fell to the Tigers. His legal issues against the NCAA might end having really benefited the Tigers by making him available.
7. Charlie Furbush---Furbush had insane K/BB rates in High-A and very solid numbers in AA-Erie. He ran out of gas in Toledo but he was well above his career high in innings pitched when he got there. He might have been on fumes pitching for his third club of the summer. Overall it was a good year for a guy coming back from Tommy John Surgery. He's no star potential guy....but there is no reason he can't be the next Luke French or something even a touch better (he had better K-rates last year than French ever had). Good guy to have around in the system.
I felt last year that the Tigers would go as far Scherzer, Verlander, and Porcello would take them. To some extent that was true. Verlander did what he could do. Scherzer was great for 2/3rds of the year but not the whole way. Porcello didn't quite pitch to the necessary level. Certainly there were other issues the club encountered in '10 that cost them...no argument there....but it fell on those three to carry the load pitching-wise. Not much has changed.....I think Coke and Penny might be better bets than last year back-of-the-rotation crew but unless one really uncorks a humdinger of a year its incumbent on the top 3 guys to pull the bus.
The Tigers should have a decent bullpen supporting them if things come together....they have some injury risk in that 'pen but bullpens are flaky by nature all over the place, so you just cross your fingers and hope for the best. Defensively this might not be the Tigers best defensive club. Jackson and Raburn should be able to hold the fort in the outfield. Inge should still be an above average defender. We'll see how the rest of the infield coalesces. Scherzer and Verlander should strike out enough to marginalize some of those worries. Coke is a flyball guy, so the infield shouldn't kill him either. So it boils down to the groundball pitchers...Porcello and Penny. Will the Tigers' infield support these two enough might as important a question as there is for this ballclub this year.
The Tigers have enough talent in this rotation to compete. Assuming decent health, they can get it done on the hill.
Would the Twins really move Francisco Liriano?
Maybe writers are bored....but there is still talk of the Twins moving Liriano to the Yankees. I thought that would shrivel up a couple of weeks ago...but the rumor has a decent life span. Several media-types ruminating on the subject in the last couple of days.
The latest would be the Yanks sending Joba, Nova, and a prospect to the Twins for Liriano. Seems about right on the return, depending on the prospect in question, assuming the Twins want pitching (assuming of course they really want to engage in this move at all! LOL).
The Twins plan has always been to throw copious amounts of slightly above average pitching out there night after night for 162 games. A guy like Santana propped things up for any strugglers just like Liriano did last year when a guy like Nick Blackburn was getting roasted on a spit. This deep average-pitching philosophy works for the Twins in the regular season but I believe its their achilles' heel in the post-season where Strikeouts and power hitting rule the day for the most part. (the whole idea that you have to "manufacture runs" in the post-season is one of the biggest loads of nonsense that lingers in baseball) That's why I personally don't think their lack of success is all that much about Gardenhire....I don't think he has the pitching horses all that often....at least not the power pitching starters I believe gives you the best shot in the posties.
So why would the Twins move Liriano? Its obvious why the Yankees would want him...not a lot of investigation needed there. But Liriano is the Twins only real power pitcher....but the thing is, I don't think they really value that all that much. Liriano is in the doghouse w/Gardenhire and Smith over conditioning and work ethic quite often. He's a free agent after '12 and I think its highly unlikely the Twins look to extend him despite their new willingness to expand payroll. So they might look to cash in now while his value is high coming of his really great season last year....
Plugging Nova into their rotation gives them another guy who is in that "average starter" range and maybe they believe Joba Chamberlain should be starting. A lot of how this is judged may be in what else is included in a deal if it were to occur. The Yankees have some nice prospects at several levels.
I still doubt the Twins make a deal......I actually kind of hope they don't. I think Liriano is kind of combustible. His injury track record and rocky relationship w/management might derail his last two seasons in MN. (He might also continue to dominate like he did last year....but do remember he posted a 5.80 ERA in '09...that's not too long ago) I'd actually think the Twins could swing an advantageous deal now if they choose to. The Yankees are in the market and that's a good thing for driving up value most of the time. Also w/the new CBA coming there might no longer be Draft Pick compensation waiting for the Twins if they keep Liriano and lose him to FA down the road (or at least less Draft Compensation than there is now).
It will be interesting if the big blockbuster happens or if this is much ado about nothing a few weeks from now.
The latest would be the Yanks sending Joba, Nova, and a prospect to the Twins for Liriano. Seems about right on the return, depending on the prospect in question, assuming the Twins want pitching (assuming of course they really want to engage in this move at all! LOL).
The Twins plan has always been to throw copious amounts of slightly above average pitching out there night after night for 162 games. A guy like Santana propped things up for any strugglers just like Liriano did last year when a guy like Nick Blackburn was getting roasted on a spit. This deep average-pitching philosophy works for the Twins in the regular season but I believe its their achilles' heel in the post-season where Strikeouts and power hitting rule the day for the most part. (the whole idea that you have to "manufacture runs" in the post-season is one of the biggest loads of nonsense that lingers in baseball) That's why I personally don't think their lack of success is all that much about Gardenhire....I don't think he has the pitching horses all that often....at least not the power pitching starters I believe gives you the best shot in the posties.
So why would the Twins move Liriano? Its obvious why the Yankees would want him...not a lot of investigation needed there. But Liriano is the Twins only real power pitcher....but the thing is, I don't think they really value that all that much. Liriano is in the doghouse w/Gardenhire and Smith over conditioning and work ethic quite often. He's a free agent after '12 and I think its highly unlikely the Twins look to extend him despite their new willingness to expand payroll. So they might look to cash in now while his value is high coming of his really great season last year....
Plugging Nova into their rotation gives them another guy who is in that "average starter" range and maybe they believe Joba Chamberlain should be starting. A lot of how this is judged may be in what else is included in a deal if it were to occur. The Yankees have some nice prospects at several levels.
I still doubt the Twins make a deal......I actually kind of hope they don't. I think Liriano is kind of combustible. His injury track record and rocky relationship w/management might derail his last two seasons in MN. (He might also continue to dominate like he did last year....but do remember he posted a 5.80 ERA in '09...that's not too long ago) I'd actually think the Twins could swing an advantageous deal now if they choose to. The Yankees are in the market and that's a good thing for driving up value most of the time. Also w/the new CBA coming there might no longer be Draft Pick compensation waiting for the Twins if they keep Liriano and lose him to FA down the road (or at least less Draft Compensation than there is now).
It will be interesting if the big blockbuster happens or if this is much ado about nothing a few weeks from now.
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