Stuff on my mind....

It seems the mood of the fanbase has turned sour since the Robertson Trade. I don't get that. I would have liked for the Tigers to hold Robertson but its not the end of the world. Nate would have chipped in around the margins but wasn't the key to the club's success.

Both of Miguel Cabrera's homers on Tuesday were estimated at 500'....wow. I'd love to see an MVP caliber year from the big man to get his past behind him a bit.

Justin Verlander has had two straight iffy outings. I'd say "no worries".....yet. In order for the 2010 Tigers to be good, Verlander must be great.

Remember the name (how could you forget it) Gauntlett Eldemire. Ohio Bobcat outfielder...Sandwich Round projection for the June Draft right around where the Tigers will be drafting. That handle might surpass "Purnal Goldy" on the Tigers' "all-name" club. I hope David Chadd likes Eldemire.

I like how Scott Sizemore is carrying a .370-ish OBP in the Spring. Pretty solid. I don't think he's going to be the substantial downgrade defensively from Placido Polanco that The Pollyanna's think. Sizemore's youth and athleticism might just make up for losing Polanco's "steadiness".

I'm real interested to see what Johnny Damon brings to the top of the order. If he's on-base at a .365+ clip then Magglio and Cabrera will be knocking in plenty of runs.

Bud Selig and the Fox Network will have a coronary over a Rays/Marlins Swamp Series in October. Could happen.....

Goodbye Nate Robertson

Nate Robertson returns to the Marlins organization. Tough call for me.....I get the idea of moving Robertson for a prospect and I know they had to clear roster space. But he was pitching decently and the Tigers are going to need some innings throughout the year. Nate posted a 3.68 ERA in his starts last year. He'd struck out 19 batters in 19.1 IP this spring.

He's been one of my favorites, so this isn't fun to see. Winning game 1 of the ALCS in 2006, outdueling Roger Clemens in '06, "Gum time", and numerous other highlights. Certainly plenty of lowpoints too. The Tigers haven't traded a former Cy Young contender either.

So......Bonderman and Willis.....we shall see how this goes. Shouldn't be boring.

Fake Baseball Fun

Fake Baseball Draft Season came to an end last night as the rather competitive Tigers Forum Fan League (TFFL) completed its draft. This is my 4th year and I'm coming off two 3rd places finishes and one woeful 6th place crash and burn. There are 11 to 14 teams usually and this year its 11. 5x5 format using OBP instead of batting average.

I was randomly selected to pick last....numero eleven-o. But in a Snake-draft this gave me back to back picks throughout the night and I actually don't mind that.

Overall I think I did okay but only if the words "sophomore slump" don't get applied to several of my players. Second year players are going to have big roles on this club....Matt Wieters, Andrew McCutcheon, Gordon Beckham, Tommy Hanson, David Price, Dexter Fowler, and Chris Davis. Also young players Justin Upton, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Chris Perez will be playing roles of varying importance. One rookie thrown in to boot, Julio Borbon.

Picking 11th and 12th I led off by getting two of the better sticks on the board....Mark Teixeira and Evan Longoria. That should produce close to 70 HR, 220 RBI, a very solid dose of OBP, and around 200 runs. I nearly chose Matt Kemp here and I've had Kemp on my squad in other seasons....but I had other guys in mind for steals later on and Kemp's marginal OBP kept me from choosing him. I was disappointed that Joe Mauer went off the board prior to my pick....I had hoped to nab him.

Adam Dunn was drafted to be another power/OBP source and Yunel Escobar should be a solid 4.5 category contributor as a shortstop. McCutcheon has been scorching all spring and played well last year. If he steps up and combines with Weiters and Upton as young players emerging as stars then I should be pretty solid across the board offensively. (Magglio Ordonez having a big comeback season would be heaven-sent as well.....we'll see what Maggs can bring to the table) Borbon and Fowler were speed choices in case I'm hurting for steals at some point. Also, if I'm not, having speed guys to trade later is always a good thing.

On the pitching front.....in addition to Hanson and Price, I was able to get Jon Lester, John Lackey, Francisco Liriano, and Kevin Slowey. There was quite a concerted run at starting pitching in the first few rounds....so many big names went off the board early. I jumped in to get Lester at least a round or two earlier then I would have normally planned. In the bullpen, I ended up with Brian Wilson, Bobby Jenks, and Chris Perez. So three guys chasing "saves". Wilson was electric last year and should help the rate-stats a bit if he can duplicate it. Bullpen work is so up and down from year-to-year though that we'll just have to see. Jenks has one foot on the banana peel most of the time....but he ought to post 30 saves I'll bet. Perez is replacing Kerry Wood for a couple of months if he can keep the gig. I'll ride him for a while and see if I can pick up another closer on the cheap somewhere as clubs start making changes.

It should be another fun season. I'm in 3 leagues this year. Two that I care about and one new one that I could tell on draft night that the majority of the league is ambivalent about. Its at ESPN.com....I'll just try to have some fun with it.

Rotation Rotation Rotation

If I'm in charge, Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis would round the rotation with Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, and Max Scherzer; and it would be a very easy decision. Robertson and Willis have out performed Bonderman this spring for one. But more importantly, this rotation needs left handed arms.

Within the division, the Tigers will compete with the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians, two of the best left handed hitting lineups in baseball. Other American League contenders have strong left handed lineups as well. Comerica Park is also a ballpark that favors left handed pitching. In 2006, the Tigers rode three left handed starters to the playoffs. Now, more than one is too many? I don't think so.

Dave Dombrowski seems to favor Bonderman's chances for success over the two lefthanders. He surprisingly made the 4th starter spot Bonderman's to lose before spring training began, even though Bonderman has the most physically to come back from in trying to revive his career. Bonderman hasn't spiked himself this spring with his performance. His velocity is better. He had one really bad outing that hurt his numbers. But no doubt Willis and Robertson have shown more this spring. And the rotation is crying out for left handed slants.

The Tigers will already have one right handed starter in Scherzer who struggles to get left handed hitters out. Bonderman will be a second. And the Tigers have depth in right handed pitching options with Zach Miner, Armando Galarraga, Eddie Bonine, and Alfredo Figaro. They have no such depth in left handed options ready to run out there right now.

I'm not in favor of trading one of the starting pitching reclamation projects at this juncture. The injury to Miner makes things easy. Bonderman can go to the pen as the long guy, and you can run Willis and Robertson out there for the first month and evaluate. I see no reason whatsoever to just trade Nate Robertson and pay him to play for someone else for the sole purpose of making the decision easier on Jim Leyland. They are not going to get anything of significance back in trade for any one of these reclamation projects right now.

My rotation: Verlander, Scherzer, Robertson, Porcello, and Willis. My pen: Bonderman, Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry, Brad Thomas, Fu Te Ni, Phil Coke, and Jose Valverde.

The Rumors Rumble

I have a hard time believing that the Tigers are so disappointed with Scott Sizemore that they are actively shopping for second-base help. I'd be more inclined to believe they are looking for middle-infield help to upgrade from Adam Everett/Ramon Santiago. Jayson Stark has a blurb over Sizemore according to MLBTradeRumors.com. We'll see how the veracity of this plays out. I think the reports on Sizemore have been solid. His defense is drawing some praise and, while not hitting for average yet, he's drawing enough walks to remain helpful which I believe personally is a sign of good things to come.

However I will say this.....I was on a one-person campaign for Dave Dombrowski to sign Felipe Lopez in Free Agency once he was lingering on the market DEEP into the off-season. His price dropped like a Mafia-hit victim in Cement Shoes even though he had a really productive season last year. He signed in STL for a measly $1.2M w/no compensation required beyond it. He plays 4 positions and over the last two seasons had really become a much more viable offensive threat. There have been whispers over time about his character and motivations....but for $1.2M he's cheap and cut-able, you can cut ties on a miscreant at that price if there was validity to those concerns. My hunch is that stuff is overblown and something that may just be dogging him from some early career attitude issues. His game has gotten better with age, I bet his maturity level has as well. Too bad Dombrowski passed on this Lopez opportunity, as did 28 other clubs. It would be disappointing to see him having a panic-attack about Sizemore at this early stage. It should also be stated again that Stark's report could be all rumor mill garbage as well and the Tigers aren't really worried about Sizemore. It could be Dombrowski just doing the due diligence of talking about everyone who is available.

On the Nate Robertson front.......he pitched well versus the Yankees B-squad yesterday. This could only help incrementally in finding a trade partner if that indeed is what Dombrowski is up to according to reports. Nate now has 19 K in 19.1 IP, so his "stuff" is looking solid right now. In my opinion clubs like the D-Backs, Dodgers, Cubs, Astros, Mariners, and Mets are all possible targets with a couple of other possibilities out there.

The big question is what will Dombrowski be looking for in return for Nate? To me, it all comes down to how much of Robertson's tab he's willing to pick up. If they are happy to merely clear the spot on the roster and pay half to 2/3rds of his salary I don't see them getting much of a return, perhaps even the dreaded "PTBNL". If they'll pay nearly all of his salary I could see them getting a better player in return. Or they could do a salary-match trade and take some other bloated deal in return to match Robertson's cash.

Personally? I'm leaning toward keeping Robertson. He's throwing well and the Tigers need the pitching depth. Getting a backup catcher or a middling middle infielder doesn't thrill me. Heck, Robertson posted a 3.68 ERA during his short stint in the rotation last year, it was his bullpen work that torpedoed his ERA overall. I think he's relatively viable. We'll just have to see what Dombrowski can work out.....one thing we know is that Dombrowski has gotten the better end of the deal on the majority of trades he's worked in Detroit, at least in my opinion. So I'll rarely say "You CAN'T trade so-and-so" because ol' Dave might just shock us. (the Renteria Trade Debacle notwithstanding! LOL)

For what it's worth....Stark also was reporting the Tigers were shopping Brad Thomas. This makes some sense. The Tigers have a fair amount of lefties in the system right now and Thomas has no minor league options left. A club like the Rays may need a lefty for their bullpen for instance....so I can see why Dombrowski would be trying to see if Thomas has any cache' on the market right now.

Oh how Tweet it is....

Well....if Dave Dombrowski is shopping Robertson as reported on MLBTR then tomorrow's outing versus the Yankees should be interesting.

What club needs a pitcher? I guess, at least I assume, that no rebuilding club wants Robertson. The Pirates, Nats, Padres, etc....why would they?

So that leaves teams that might think they have a shot but believe they're an arm short. Milwaukee, Seattle, Cubs, St. Louis, Houston (the Astros seem to make strange decisions so I'm putting them on the list), Mets, Dodgers, and maybe one or two others.

What would the Tigers want? Well, I would imagine the more of Robertson's tab they pick up the better player they might get in return. A bit has been made of the Tigers scouting backup catchers. I guess that might be it. I'm thinking it might a bit less immediate of a contributing player. I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up being the dreaded "Player To Be Named Later"....the Tigers could agree to a list of possible prospects and they'd have three months to pick one eventually. I'm guessing that it would be a player young enough to avoid having to put on the 40-man roster if we find out right away what the return is (if a deal happens...just 'cause John Paul Morosi at FoxSports is tweeting about the whispers doesn't guarantee anything is imminent).

I recall there was mild disbelief among the fanbase a couple of years ago when Mike Maroth merely brought a PTBNL in return...there are some similarities here. However Robertson has a bit more ability than Maroth in my opinion and he's pitching relatively well right now....so I'd be hopeful of a better return than what DD eventually got for Maroth. (the lamentable Chris Lambert)

"Camp Positivity" in Lakeland?

Two wins for the Tigers today and their pitching was very solid in both contests. 6 pitchers combined on a two-hitter in beating the Blue Jays and another half-dozen hurlers help toppled the Mighty Nats in a split crew game, 8-2.

All eyes were on Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman. Both did fine enough I suppose. Willis walks his first two batter but then rebounds smartly allowing only 1 run overall and two more baserunners. He even struck out 3 batters to match his 3 walks. A 1:1 K/BB ratio is nothing great of course but getting a modicum of whiffs for Dontrelle is good to see.

Bonderman had to pitch around errors by Johnny Damon and Brent Dlugach....he went 4.1 IP and allowed 1 ER on 5 hits and walk. He also uncorked one wild pitch. I'm most interested to hear the reviews of his outing and see if the split-fingered fastball was effective and perhaps helped cause the 7 groundball outs he induced versus only 4 flyball outs.

The stats are relatively meaningless of course for Spring Training when trying to judge Nate Robertson, Bonderman, and Willis. Its really all about how they look and how their stuff is impressing the powers that be. Joe Sheehan returned to Baseball Prospectus for a chat today and said something I wish I would have written, "Statistics are only meaningful when generated in the process of trying to win baseball games." This is a perfect way of expressing it my mind by Sheehan. Spring games are often not about winning...probably a lot more than "often". Its about working on new pitches, new batting approaches, seeing a kid in a certain situation, etc....winning on the back burner. So I guess it really comes to Jim Leyland, Rick Knapp, and Dave Dombrowski. How do Knapp and Leyland believe the three respective guys are throwing and how it will hold up when the bell rings. Will Dombrowski elect to keep all three on the roster when we know one at least will have to head to the bullpen.

On another topic there seems, among the fanbase, some optimism building for the '10 season due to the recent good play by the Tigers. I will admit that the error count is decent, the bullpen looks pretty solid, they are hitting okay most of the time, and the rotation might be deep enough. Is it a house of cards or is the real thing budding? I'm still not moved too far off of saying this is an 80 or 81 win ballclub. I'm encouraged to an extent....but we gotta see the real deal come April 5. The good news is there hasn't been a festering story of anyone struggling so badly that its creating a constant drumbeat of worry....its been "Camp Positivity" looking from the outside. Does that help win real games starting soon? We'll see....

Tough Break for the Royals....

One of their top half-dozen prospects, southpaw pitcher Danny Duffy, has decided to leave baseball to re-assess his priorities in life. This is not injury related in any way. Good for him I suppose....but that pitching depth the Royals liked to talk about in their system took a big hit today.

This kid had a 2.49 ERA in his minor league career thus far and had a K/H ratio of 290/188 which is really impressive plus a solid K/BB ratio of 290/83. This is a prospect they expected to be a piece of their rotation one day.

The A's had Grant Desme leave their organization last month to enter the priesthood....it will be interesting to hear more about Duffy's story.

The sweet smell of Spring....ahhhhhhhh

Clete Thomas is a MONSTER in Florida...his current batting slash-line is: .400/.500/.600....I love the nice round numbers. Ruthian....Bondsian production. Unfortunately Thomasonian production will probably settle back upon us eventually.

Brent Dlugach is 11-28 for a smooth .393 batting clip. However one might want to notice he's K'd 9 times versus 0 walks while sporting a BABIP of .529. His slash-line is currently: .393/.393/.750.....

Its fun to attempt to spot trends or pull positives or negatives out of Spring Training numbers....but for the most part they are meaningless due to small sample and other factors like inconsistent competition level. Spring training is truly for the scouts and talent evaluators to shine and make the right calls on who is exhibiting skills that will translate when the bell rings in April. Statistically meaningful samples are already in the books and determine who is getting some of these opportunities in Spring Training...but the numbers they are accruing probably mean little to those making decisions. Jackson's batting eye is being evaluated, Bonderman's split-finger, Willis' velocity, and so on, are more important than Willis' nice ERA or Clete Thomas putting up Ted Williams' numbers in 40 plate appearances.

Draft Watch 2010

I was going to look at some college players today on the D1 level but truthfully there are only a few guys as intriguing as the kid in Nevada. Bryce Harper is living up to the hype so far. He's supposed to be a high school junior this year, instead he took the GED and enrolled at a community college program...he's playing in a good league for that level by most accounts. So far Harper has hit .420 with eight homers, 27 RBIs, an .864 slugging percentage and a .514 on-base percentage in 27 games against older competition. Its also wood-bat league, I've not read it but I'm assuming scouts like seeing him swing one of those rather than aluminum.

He is ranked by nearly everyone as the top talent in the upcoming draft. However he is in a unique position where he can actually turn down offers and re-enter the draft for each of the next three years depending on the path he takes on the amateur side. So he can command major money since he has the hammer of walking away from signing and re-entering the draft so many times at a young age. This is why many observers think plenty of teams are going to bail on drafting him despite the talent. He could be in a "Porcello Situation" and fall back in the draft. That turned out well for the Tigers in '07! Of course....we know that the Tigers won't have that chance this year if indeed this happens. Oh well....left-handed bats w/massive power who also play behind the plate come along every day, right?

Fun Spring Numbers

Think Adam Everett (2 for 27) stinks? Nate McLouth is 1 for 35 this spring with 14Ks. And unlike Everett, he's supposed to help his team on offense.

8.1IP - 21 hits and 5 walks. Typical spring for Kevin Millwood who always is terrible in exhibition. At least it seems that way.

Former Tiger high round high school draft picks are still kicking around camps this spring. Brent Clevlen has gotten a decent look from the Braves. Scott Moore had a chance to make the O's at a UT. Unfortunately - both still can't hit - Moore (.111) - Clevlen (.116).

Want another reason to pick the Rays over the Yankees in the AL East? Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez have 29 RBI combined in spring training - or the exact same number as Teixiera, ARod, Jeter, Swisher, Granderson, and Cano combined. And the Rays don't even have a place for either of those kids in their lineup.

Would you believe Nate Robertson leads the AL in IPs pitched in spring training with 14.1? Guess the Tigers aren't the only team that seems slow to extend their pitchers in games in spring.

Scott Sizemore has impressed with a nice 1 to 1 w/k ratio - 8 and 8 this spring. Who has the best W to K ratio in spring training so far? A player Sizemore draws comparisons to - Aaron Hill (9 walks 1 K).

One Inning?

According to MLB.com's Jason Beck, Willis was basically throwing his side session in the game today and the one inning of work was by design. He's still supposed to start one of the split squad games on Thursday. Beck also commented that 8 of Willis 10 pitches were 90+; and he touched 93mph.

One inning?

Dontrelle goes one frame. What do we make of this? Auditioning for the bullpen? Showcasing for a trade? Dunno....

Nate Robertson had the makings of a quality start in progress....almost identical to his last start. A few too many baserunners allowed for the WHIP-junkies....but not bad overall. 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K. I think Nate has a job in the rotation...(unless he gets dealt!)

Nice to see Jackson and Sizemore at the top of the lineup.....maybe not this year, but in the post-Johnny Damon Era I could easily envision these two batting together there in future seasons together.

Musing on Mauer

The Twins pretty much "had" to get this deal done as far as their local community was concerned. Joe Mauer was a legend before he ever finished High School in the area. He was coming from a prominent athletic family to begin with that was already known to avid sports fans all over Minnesota. He led his school to state football titles and turned down Bobby Bowden's offers at Florida State to play Quarterback. The Twins used their local knowledge to pass over Mark Prior (the Stephen Strasburg of his day!) to get Mauer.(Local sports radio types excoriated the Twins when that happened for being too parochial and, of course, cheap).

Mauer came quickly through the Twins' system and showed promise even while dealing with early spates of injuries to his knees and back. Despite calls for a position switch almost immediately following his first injury, he's become a defensive plus behind the plate. His offensive game of course has now reached stratospheric heights...and not only "for a catcher"...but he's just plainly an offensive force.

During this time in MLB he has become an Icon in Minnesota (and I hate bestowing the overused word "icon", but in this case it has merit). Young girls love him, old folks love him, guys in their 20's would want to be him. He's the sole reason a lot of folks follow the Twins in Mauer-sota. You can't overstate the feeling that Minnesotans have for Mauer being "One of us!". (I lived in MN from '97 to '07 btw....I saw this first-hand) Losing Joe Mauer would have turned off a generation of Twins' fans. It would be bigger than Jeter becoming a Dodger to a Yankees' fan (proportional to the markets).

The Twins used taxpayer money to fund their new palace Target Field. Not investing in Joe Mauer carried costs well beyond the baseball field. There would have been severe backlash in my mind.....not one quelled merely by a winning streak or a winning ballclub after his leaving.

So, how will it play on the field? Well....how long will he catch? How durable will he be? Can he continue to hit for the power he flashed so impressively in '09? Will the $184M commitment over the next 8-yrs (no word that I've seen on what money is deferred) affect what other talent the Twins will put on the field?

I think the Twins will probably be okay. I see no reason, other than injury, that Mauer isn't very good through the first half of this deal at least. Can they continue to scout and develop pitching like they have over the years on the relative cheap? If the answer to that question is "yes" then they're going to be okay. If the cheap pipeline of pitching dries up however then the Twins might run into some real issues keeping a solid crew around Mauer despite the promised revenue engine that Target Field might become.

Robertson and Willis Today

I'm a little surprised the Tigers are bringing Willis back on short rest today, especially after watching him pitch through such obvious back pain and stiffness last Thursday. They probably want to get as many looks as they can at him; but I would have rather seen them wait and give him one of the Thur starts to see if he could go beyond 3 IPs and maybe get through 5. I'd also like to see if Robertson could get through 5 today. I don't know what the Tigers can really see in two more 3IP (if that's what they do) stints from these guys today - it's time to see which of the reclamation projects can get you 5 decent IPs in a start.

Counting down to Opening Day

With Fu-Te Ni being the star of today's 3-0 shutout over the Phillies, its come time to ask.......Where does this club stand?

Well.....we can go with all the needed cliches' about Spring Training. "Its a small sample", "these games don't count", "wait until the real bullets are flying"....blah blah blah. But at the end of the day we can only look at the games that have been in front of us....we can only look at old stats so often....where are these Tigers and what do we know?

I think we know that there is a good chance that Austin Jackson will patrol CF pretty well and that Scott Sizemore will not be a slow leak in the infield's tire on defense either. These are big developments to me....Detroit's a pitching-based ballclub ostensibly...so you have to have some quality leather work behind them. Losing Polanco's "steady" presence worried some and Granderson's rep was at least being missed by others in CF.

I think we can make a good guess that we'll see more of the "Good Magglio" this rather then "First half '09 Magglio". He's hitting well and all accounts from those on the scene are pretty glowing.

I think we know that Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander will again be the pillars everything else is based around. Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer are left to support the Big Two.

I think we know that Adam Everett can't hit much....he didn't need to hit .077 to prove it to us!!

Its becoming evident to me that the Tigers have enough bullpen depth of different varieties that some kind of solid bullpen should emerge in due course. Valverde will get the primetime stat in "saves"......but guys like Fu-Te Ni, Ryan Perry, Phil Coke, Brad Thomas, Joel Zumaya, and Robbie Weinhardt will all be pitching very important innings at various point this year I think.

I believe the soft-underbelly of the Tigers----the back end of the rotation----has a bunch of guys that aren't lighting it up but at least the also aren't getting run off the mound most nights, showing that there might be some level of utility to be garnered there. Nate Robertson might have gas left in the tank.

We don't know how Brandon Inge's knee is going to hold up. Its good he says its achy but not the shooting pain he had last year....at least I'm trying to rationalize that its good.

We don't know, how could we possibly (?), what twists The Curious Case of Dontrelle Willis could have in store for us.

In a division that hasn't had a 90-game winner in two years, I think this club has a shot. Perhaps a sneaky-good shot...we'll see how the cuts come about here in the next few days and see how Leyland and Dombrowski see things. They would not have signed Jose Valverde (no matter my objections!) and Johnny Damon with their collective sights set on 3rd place....they must feel they can compete now, how they structure this 25-man roster to begin the pursuit should be very interesting to take note of in the next week or so.

Rotation

The way the rotation could be set up for this week:

Sat 03.20 - Bonine
Sun 03.21 - Verlander
Mon 03.22 - Robertson
Tue 03.23 - Scherzer
Wed - Off Day
Thu 03.25 - DH Split Squad - Bonderman and Willis
Fri 03.26 - Verlander

Willis would get an extra two days rest for his back before pitching on Thursday which would make sense - considering he looked like he needed to put in traction during that game Thu.

If Verlander goes on Friday 03.26 - he would then be set up on schedule for opening day - pitching the following Wed 03.31 - then opening day Monday 04.05.

Porcello could probably pitch in a minor league or simulated game Wed or Thu - or share one of the split squad outings on Thu.

If Bonderman and Willis each start Thu in the split squad - the Tigers would get one more look at each before cut down day the following week. If either one is going to make the team - they then would be set up to probably pitch one or both of the last two spring training games in Milwaukee before the season opens.

While it seems the Tigers might be hoping that it's Bonderman and Willis that make it - personally I think Robertson should be close to getting a spot. He was the most effective of the three at the end of last season, and he's been the most effective this spring. If he can give them 5 pretty good innings next week, I think he should be handed the first open rotation slot - and it should come down to Bonderman and Willis for the #5 slot - with Bonine in the wings - in case neither is worthy.

Bonderman

Well.....Jeremy Bonderman looked like his old self last night. He struggled in the first inning! We're all set!

Certainly that's not quite the case yet...Bonderman wasn't sharp judging by the comments in the Detroit News and by looking at the box score. He limited the damage by getting a couple of Double-plays to wiggle out of trouble. However that, to me, is troubling as Bonderman isn't exactly known as a groundball machine. Unless his new split-finger pitch is going to make him into one. Overall he allowed 2 ER and 7 baserunners over 3 innings pitched....obviously that's too many baserunners to sustain any kind of success. He has two or three more starts in Spring Training to make a case for himself.

There is nothing more that I'd like to see than for Bonderman to get on track. Right now I'd put his Spring performance behind Nate Robertson's however. We'll see how the final two weeks unfold but right now the back of Detroit's rotation has the same questions today that it started with back in February. In reality there isn't enough data to judge these guys statistically....its all going to be up to Leyland and Rick Knapp to read the tea leaves and make the gut-decisions about who gets the first crack when the bell rings on April 5th.

The Royale with Cheese...

The Royals are getting a little notice for the deep pool of pitching they are building in their minor league system....it does look pretty good. So credit them for that....however quite a few of their top hopes are a ways off right now from being at the MLB level (depending on the path of ascendancy Aaron Crow takes).

But the overall state of their organization is best summed by seeing how little help is on the way for their big-league club on the immediate horizon. I'm pretty sure, not 100% but close, that only one Royals' ballplayer made his major league debut last year. (and the ONE was a 27-yr old LOOGY called up in September...in other words, a non-entity) In an also-ran season of nothingness they didn't really have anybody judged worthy of a look-see. That's mind-blowing to me.

The best part is that if you look over their roster it doesn't appear they'll have anyone on the cusp of debuting this year either unless the aforementioned Aaron Crow zooms thru the system and breaks down the door. Instead the Royals have "re-tooled" w/old guys on short deals. I suppose they are viewed as a bridge to the time the young talent arrives....someday.

So Rick Ankiel, Scott Pods, Jason Kendall join the likes of Willie Bloomquist, Jose Guillen, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Mitch Maier in trying to complement Greinke, Soria, and Butler. Sadly, given what the AL Central is, if somebody like Gil Meche has a big rebound and Luke Hochevar finally puts it together, maybe the Royals can push .500. If you can push .500 in this division you're suddenly able to kid yourself in late July you can contend.

Typically adding old washed up vets in a desperate attempt to get from 73-wins to 78-wins is a fool's play and waste of resources and playing time devoted to those players....those 5 wins don't typically add much to the bottom line when you're only winning at that level. But if pushing .500 can cause some irrational hope on the part of Royals fans that this club can contend then adding these vets might pay for itself. Maybe...

Pickin' the upsets!

Way to go Murray State and Old Dominion! Florida almost made me 3 for 3 in upset picks so far today....can't win 'em all.

Rotation Battle Ready to Get Serious

Jim Leyland accurately described the Tigers rotation battle so far as no one has "really stepped up" and no one has taken themselves out of it. That's a fair assessment although maybe you can say Armando Galarraga is bowing out with his performance.

Nate Robertston continued to pitch "pretty well" yesterday. I do agree with those that say the key with Nate is not so much his velocity, but having his slider. When Nate was going good (people forget that from 04-07 he averaged 16 Quality Starts per season), he featured some of the nastiest breaking stuff from a left hand pitcher that you will see. In his best stretch from 04-06, he was extremely tough v LH hitters and that enabled him to just limit the damage v RH hitters. As he struggled through arm issues the last couple years, he hasn't had his slider and hasn't been effective v LH hitters. So if Nate does earn a rotation spot the key thing to focus on early is - how is he doing v LH hitters. If he can control them, he can probably be OK.

The next two days it is Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman's turn. I think the first guy to go out and give the Tigers five strong innings out of this group probably takes the lead here and maybe even earns a spot. Willis is on the thinnest tight rope. One start in which he struggles with his command probably takes him out of the race.

Each of these starters will only have a chance to make two more appearances before cut down day after this week. It can't be easy for any of these them knowing that one bad start can be the difference from still being a big league starter in 2010 or going back to career limbo. Actually, if Willis can pitch through this pressure and not blow up, it's probably a pretty good sign that he's got at least a shot of beating his confidence issues. Personally, I'm glad we've hung on to all three; and they are all getting this one last shot this spring. One of them probably won't be with us anymore in two weeks. Bonderman is the only guy I can see the Tigers hanging on to, if he doesn't make the rotation.

The Classic Logo!

Pirates game....bullpen race

11 walks? I don't know if the Tigers showed some extraordinary patience at the plate or if the Pirates pitchers were just that bad. Probably a bit of both. A few good performances as well by a few players. Scott Sizemore had a decent game, Carlos Guillen, and a couple of others. Nate Robertson had the makings of a Quality Start...4 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB. Not bad. Nate keeps showing a little something. He's been a Spring Training Tease before though....we'll see what April brings.

I've said previously that 5th starters emerge at different points through the season not just in March...but Robertson has made it through the grind of 30+ starts before, so it would be great if he's legitimately claiming a spot. If he can post a league average production type of season from the back-end of the rotation then the Tigers will be ahead of the game. A long way to go before we get there however.......you know, another thing is that Robertson might be making himself marketable via trade (although I have to believe the Tigers would have to cover some of the cost). If Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis also continue to look okay and usable then maybe Dave Dombrowski is going to be able to start shopping Nate around MLB.

As for the bullpen....its starting to take a little shape. I think Fu-Te Ni is pretty close to gaining a spot. Brad Thomas and Phil Coke will probably have spots as well. It makes a lot of sense to think that Bobby Seay will open the season on the DL. So Ni, Coke, and Thomas look like the lefty contingent. Who will be the 4 righties? I'll go with Jose Valverde, Eddie Bonine, Joel Zumaya, and Ryan Perry for right now (possibly changing daily! LOL). I just have a feeling that Zach Miner's days are numbered. Zumaya is such a question mark however, that could save Miner. If Robbie Weinhardt continues to have success and Zumaya can't find the arm slot they're looking for him so that he regains some deception in his motion, perhaps Weinhardt gets a gig early on in the season.

I watched Weinhardt the other day versus the Phillies. I'd also watched him pitch in the AFL Championship Game last Fall. I can't say I'm blown away by his stuff. Its hard to tell on TV and, of course, I'm no scout. But it just doesn't look overpowering to me. His results are consistently good however at each stop in his career so far.....so that the Hell do I know!? One thing to me is that Weinhardt is "only" 6'2"...a bit shorter than a few of the Tigers pitchers. For a power pitcher those couple of inches sometimes make a difference. His stuff doesn't appear to have much up/down movement...kind of side to side on one-plane. His ball doesn't look "heavy" to me.....but, again, we're talking about a few innings on television. His peripheral stats are great and he keeps getting guys out. No reason to argue too hard with that. One thing not in his favor is that he's not currently on the 40-man roster....if a decision is tight for the last spot he'll be easy to just ship back to the minors w/o clearing a roster spot.

Miscellaneous Fulminations....

Domonic Brown hit two homers against the Tigers for the Phillies plus another hit. The top prospect in their system looked pretty impressive to me. He made a nice run saving catch in the outfield as well. Very athletic.

Phil Coke faced three straight lefties in the 5th inning....he didn't get any of them. Howard, Ibanez, Brown...couldn't put any of them away. Don't know much about Coke yet....maybe he's never sharp in Spring Training. He's failed to impress so far.

Don Kelly is an okay minor league lifer and sometime MLB utility guy....but watching Kelly do the old "Ole!" on a chopper to 3B by Jimmy Rollins and seeing Rollins pull into second base with a double made me appreciate Brandon Inge. Inge gobbles that play up and might have thrown Rollins out...for sure Rollins is only on first I'd bet.

The Washington Nationals had not won a Spring Training game prior to today....then of course they manage to win not only their first but they get two wins today in Split-squad action. Good for them.....not winning in the Spring isn't a big deal....but going winless into your third week of action is pretty embarrassing.

Read a little preview of the Twins new stadium, Target Field. Supposedly the prevailing wind will blow in from Rightfield. This will hurt some of the Twins lefty power bats in the Homer department. Morneau, Mauer, Kubel, Thome, and so on. Another interesting thing is that Target Field will have very, very little foul territory as the fans are on top of the action. One little quirk of the football field doubling as a baseball diamond in The Metrodome was it had oodles of foul ground....this helped the Twins pitchers immensely over the years. They'll be pitching w/o that little security blanket this year. I think one possible Achille's Heel for the Twins this year will be their possibly weak outfield defense.

Tigers 3B coach, Gene LaMont, ran over Jim Leyland's foot w/a golf cart the other day and broke Jimmy's toe. Write your own joke....all I know is I found that exceedingly amusing.

Tiger Woods back for The Masters. Makes sense for him to return in a controlled environment like Augusta...that joint is on lockdown. I don't know how rusty Tiger will be....but I'd love to watch him contend and win. Nobody is proud of his behavior...but I've been a fan since he was 15-yrs old winning the US Junior Am....can't abandon him now.

If you want to watch a pretty darn good baseball movie then you have to watch "Sugar". Really good stuff....

Had Enough.....

Yes....yes I did call my ancient Congressman's office (US REP Leonard Boswell--D) today. I asked them to wake the ol' fella up from his nap and let him know that if he, and his colleagues, are going to pass this Senate Health Care Bill he better have the GUTS to put his name on a vote and not resort to this "Slaughter Solution" fiasco where they can "deem" a bill to have passed w/o voting on it. Nice way to attempt to avoid self-administering the placement of the electoral noose around their own necks. IF they are going to ram this through they must be forced to put their name on a vote and own what they've perpetrated.

Around the AL Central

Joe Nathan is going to try to pitch on Saturday. That should be interesting....I wonder how long they'll try to make him work before shutting it down and putting him under the knife. The sooner the Twins get this operation done the more likely they have him back next season at full strength to get something out of the final year of his contract.

Will the Twins convert Francisco Liriano to the bullpen? Certainly he as the repertoire of a closer, even a left-handed one. I don't think he'll be overwhelmed by the platoon split in that role. I think their other options are fine as well in Jon Rauch or Matt Guerrier. Sky Andrechuck has a good column today at SI.com about how he feels that losing Nathan isn't the end of the world for the Twins. I've agreed with this stance from the beginning. Maybe a 2-win loss for the them. (Sky says 3)

The Twins also extended Nick Blackburn for 4-yrs. A modestly talented pitcher getting a long term commitment...hmmmmm....see Robertson, Nate. By coincidence Blackburn is having some injury issues right now as well.

I think the Twins move to lock up Denard Span was probably a better long term move as opposed to Blackburn's deal. Span became an OBP demon last year and is looking like he'll continue to be the prime table-setter for Mauer and Morneau. Its always a risk to lock up a guy through his arb-years, but they chose cost-certainty and it seems sensible enough to me.

Come on.....you know they're going to sign Joe Mauer. You know it. It doesn't matter what a ink-stained wretch like Jim Souhan says in the MN paper....the Twins aren't going to take the massive PR hit and not lock up the local legend in Mauer. Simply....won't....happen. 8-yr/$156M at the minimum....plenty deferred as long Mauer will agree to.

I have the Twins at 85 wins right now. We'll see how it shakes out on the eve of Opening Day for an official prediction on the AL Central.

Fake Sports Team Dork-O-Rama!!

Help me.....please help me. I may need an intervention.

I've been invited by the husband of a co-worker to join his ESPN Fantasy Baseball League. Nice of the guy to ask....so I figured I should join. The draft is at 7:30pm Sunday night. The thing about it is Chris D's AL-only League, which I'm also in, has its draft on Sunday night at 9pm. Two drafts overlapping.....how geeky is that??

So, juggling two drafts at once...two different formats in AL-only Roto and the other a Head-to-Head league.....one on ESPN.com, the other at Yahoo! Sports.....this could get ugly.

**UPDATE** Unbelievable....Chris D has changed his draft to 7:30pm as well. SAME TIME as the other draft! Two drafts at once....somehow I see them both going poorly. This can't end well! Can I walk and chew gum at the some time? Will it be like a sitcom episode where a guy tries to juggle two dates at once? Will I draft the wrong Upton??? (Can you draft the wrong Upton?)

The Sunday Stock Ticker

A couple of weeks of Spring Training in the books, time to take stock. Buy, sell, hold?

Rick Porcello- Strong Buy, looking very solid once again this year. The young virtuoso just needs to stay healthy and the sky is the limit.

Robbie Weinhardt- Hold, his stock would show up as "unch" for "unchanged" if I'm doing the scoring. He had a solid year in the minors and the Arizona Fall League, but 4 measly innings in Spring Training don't vault him too far ahead. Still he's one to watch and could easily be the 2nd from "The Great Bullpen Draft of '08" to surface in DET.

Magglio Ordonez- Medium Buy, looking good and making it seem that the strong finish to last year wasn't an illusion.

Dan Schlereth- Soft sell (to the minors)....nothing to worry about long term, but getting strafed so often probably leads his future to the minors to get things started this year. Still has the whole 2nd half of Spring Training to change course however. Big lefty throws hard...they'll give him about 25 chances to make it over the next few years.

Scott Sizemore...hold, I'm not worried.

Andy Oliver- Buy! The kid is likely to be the fast-mover of the '09 draft for the Tigers while Jacob Turner logs a season and a half in the minors.

Max Scherzer- Buy. He got it going on Saturday versus several of the Mets' regulars. A couple of more good outings and he's on his way.

Stephen Strasburg- (Not a Tiger....don't care) BUY, BUY, BUY! Another shutout outing today.

Austin Jackson- Strong buy- You can't get all jacked up over Spring success...we all know this. But the reports on his defense are first rate. To me this says he can be the man out there this summer patrolling centerfield.

Zach Miner- Sell. I dunno...I think there are young guys I'd rather see pitch. I've never been a Miner-basher...but you can't get excited over this fellow.

Sunday Morning Roundup

Horrible news about top Red Sox prospect Ryan Westmoreland. The 20-yr old is having brain surgery to attempt to fix a "Cavernous malformation" in his brain that can lead to clots and other issues. Baseball career totally secondary now...life threatening issue. I had just read an amazing scouting report on him recently. Hope for the best for the young guy.

Solid day for the Tigers yesterday. Probably most encouraging to see Scherzer get off the schneid and for Bonderman to have a solid outing. Raburn gets 4 hits and Damon goes deep. I liked seeing Andy Oliver have a good outing as well.

Ryan Perry? Well.....want a mulligan?

Dontrelle Willis....I dunno. Another step forward I suppose, so hey good work! Certainly its true for every pitcher at this point that its a ludicrously tiny sample to judge them....but of course that pretty much what we always do this time of year! Willis has walked 4 and K'd 4 in his 7 IP. Certainly not a ratio for success. He has coaxed 10 groundball outs which is good and not allowed anyone to hit for any power versus him yet. His BABIP stands at .227. The big thing is managing the expectations. I'm sure most join me in suspecting the "Willis of '05" hasn't exactly arrived yet due to his good start. If he can somehow just become a league average type of starter for even a portion of the season (half? 60%? dunno...) that would be helpful to the ballclub. I think the big thing in respect to his psyche is how he'll react the next time out to getting smacked around on the hill. Judging by the BABIP and the low-ish K-rate, that will happen here soon. We'll see....

I was surprised the Twins committed 5-yrs/$16.5M to Denard Span....not because he's not a good player. I just figured most commitments would be on hold until Mauer signed. (maybe he's not?!?) But then I remembered the Twins extended Nick Blackburn for 4-yr the other day. (questionable decision to me) Span will be making $16.5M during a span of seasons where Curtis Granderson will be making $28.5M....so a pretty solid value for the Twins and probably another tiny indicator of why the Tigers were looking to move Granderson before he got expensive.

Its good to hear some nice reviews of the defensive ability of Austin Jackson in CF. For his inaugural season in Detroit I truly don't care how much he hits...it appears he'll be okay...but if he can track down everything in CF he'll be plenty valuable to the pitching staff. I'm envisioning a .265/.340/.410 batting line this year....conservatively.

Spring Impressions

Some comments - questions - and answers...

I would say this is the most important game date so far this yr - with rotation candidates Willis, Bonderman, and Robertson all going v the Yankees - and Scherzer trying to get back on track v the Mets.

Guy who I wouldn't be surprised to see come north with the team - Robbie Weinhardt.

Guys who I wouldn't be surprised are no longer in the organization two weeks from now - Jeff Larish and Zack Miner.

What would I do with Brent Dlugach - play him at 3b everyday at Toledo (assuming we don't need him in Detroit because of an injury).

With Seay looking like he's headed to the DL and Schlereth looking like he needs a bit more seasoning, I would say Coke, Ni, and Thomas chances of being the three lefties in the pen look pretty good. Of course, the Tigers could still decide to go with only two lefties in the pen if they decide to hang onto Zack Miner.

Am I worried about Scott Sizemore - not at all. The Tigers have good depth of options for 2b with Santiago, Kelly, and Dlugach. They can bring Sizemore along slowly with the ankel.

With Austin Jackson en fuego and Sizemore ice cold to start the spring - what would be typical to expect when the games get real in April - Sizemore hits and Jackson doesn't. Spring performance has merit for those who are trying to make the team surely, but when April begins - what happens in Lakeland stays in Lakeland.

What would be a good complement to a mostly RH hitting starting lineup - a bench of Clete Thomas, Don Kelly, Ramon Santiago, and Alex Avila.

What the biggest "reveal" of the spring so far - the Tigers are going to need to get serious about finding a space for their top position player prospect Ryan Strieby's bat because hitters like him don't come around very often.

New York State of Mind for one Spring Day

The Tigers play both the Yankees and the Mets today in split-crew action.

Lots of stuff happening. Bonderman, Robertson, and Willis all slated for three innings in the game versus the Yankees. Those results will be interesting to see. Brandon Inge makes his Spring Training debut which is a good thing. Henning's (or was it Gage?) pre-ST prediction that they wouldn't be able to keep Inge off the field quite as long as scheduled is coming true. No...I don't think its because Don Kelly is playing well and Inge is feeling threatened or usurped. I imagine he just wants to play because ballplayers want to...ya know.....play ball.

Against the Metropolitans Max Scherzer takes the hill. While it would be nice to see him make it through the first inning, it will be most interesting to see if his command is there and we start to see some of the guy the D-Backs saw last year. Early Spring struggles are common...heck, Verlander's first 4 starts in April stunk last year before he turned it on. Hopefully Scherzer has a decent outing and douses the early concerns some folks probably have. Also slated to pitch in that game is Andy Oliver....as many have heard, if there is a fast-riser candidate from last June's draft Oliver is probably the guy at the front of the line. Perry, Strieby, and Avila are playing that game as well.

Polanco would have taken the sure thing....

Jason Beck spoke with Placido Polanco today and Polanco indicated pretty strongly that he would have accepted the Arbitration if Dave Dombrowski had offered.

This is interesting to hear. It confirms a very strong suspicion I had when the decision was being made.....the Tigers NEVER would have sniffed those compensatory draft picks if they'd made that offer to Polanco because he wasn't turning it down. He was going to take the sure thing.....the completely sensible move. He ended up with a better outcome of course by getting the 3-yr/$18M deal from Philly. This is a tremendous deal for him to wind down his career.

Dave Dombrowski made the right call....even though he indicated he might have made the offer if he could do it again.....he should trust his instincts, they led him down the right path.

Scott Sizemore was as ready as any prospect in the system and Polanco was coming off a second straight regressive season. It was time to plug in a younger player and he just happens to play the same position where the Tigers had an expiring contract. A fit. It saved the Tigers money as well which I'm sure they are also pleased about.

Its a safe bet for the Tigers...Sizemore just might outperform Polanco. If Sizemore's injury history continues or he doesn't play up to an acceptable level its fairly easy most seasons to round up a 2B on the fly for a competent GM. It will be a lot of fun to watch Sizemore progress this year. I also wish Polanco all the luck in the world....I just won't be among the legion of his fans that will miss him a whole bunch.

Would Act 2 go better?

Ahhhhh The Jarrod Washburn Trade. Hopes so high....hope then struck down in ignominious fashion.

I had campaigned long and hard for the Tigers to make a move on a starting pitcher last summer. Many fans wanted a bat....and that was a legitimate argument, but I felt the Tigers' rotation needed a boost in order to go the distance. So, while Washburn wasn't at the top of my wish list, he was up there and I fully supported that trade. Well.....right moves go wrong on occasion. Washburn's knee flaired up, he probably missed the amazing defensive support he was getting in Seattle, and he had a run of gopherball-itis that led to zero contribution from the move. In the end the Tigers were short on starting pitching down the stretch....I think the concept of the trade was proven correct because they needed another starter to contribute in September. However good concepts don't lead to playoff berths all the time.

But now its Spring Training 2010 and the back end of the Tigers rotation looks a little tattered (to be kind). Washburn's knee has had time to heal. He turned down a $5M deal from the Twins in January. That was probably a mistake by him. I would bet he'll be lucky to score half of that deal now plus incentives. Should the Tigers get in touch with him if their rotation continues to struggle though the Grapefruit League?

I have my doubts a DET/Washburn marriage will happen again. I think the Tigers will give their in-house options more rope throughout the Spring and perhaps well into April. Washburn, Braden Looper, and a few others are still lingering out there and I think someone will still be scrounging for a gig just prior to Opening Day. Also, Washburn may want no part of a return to the Tigers. We'll just have to see how it works out.

The best thing would be for Jeremy Bonderman to find his groove, and either Nate Robertson or Dontrelle Willis to regain their mojo. I just hate to put eggs in that basket. If the Tigers brought back Washburn and he pitches within some fashion of his stellar first half of '09, it would be money well spent. The deal will be short and cheap....the best kind for vets like him. (I'll give it a 3% chance of happening!)

Dontrelle Willis

He's not the story of the spring yet, but with every "quiet" line that he puts up in his outings Dontrelle Willis becomes more and more noteworthy. And unfortunately, as he becomes more and more noteworthy, the question will linger - "When is the meltdown coming?"



I haven't been one to write off Dontrelle Willis for 2010 for a couple reasons. First, in that one brilliant start we saw last year, Willis showed that somewhere underneath a skin of self doubt, the pitcher that won 20+ games and had the baseball world at his feet is still there. Secondly, while the other Tigers reclamation starting pitchers all have arm issues at the core of what has derailed them, Willis' confidence and mechanical issues have little to do with the soundness of his arm. The left limb of Willis is still "live" and plenty rested.



I don't know which of the Tigers four reclamation project starters will "find it" again, but I'm fairly confident that one or two of them will. Four guys that have had as much collective success as these guys have had in the big leagues can't all be complete zeros for another whole season again - can they? Maybe they can, but I'm expecting a rebound season somewhere here from someone. And as this spring starts to develop, I find myself rooting harder and harder for that someone to be Willis.



Willis hibernated well this winter, we heard hardly a peep from him or about him. When he finally surfaced at Tigerfest, he was self effacing, humble, and downright honest about his performance since he's been a Tiger. If admitting you stink is the first step on the road back from Stinkville, Willis certainly sounded like a recovering addict that is ready to face his demons head on.



No question, the Tigers need left handed starting pitching. While they will take whoever of the reclamation projects that can come closest to being the successful pitcher they were in the past, certainly the Tigers would love to see one or two lefty starters become legit options for them. When you're in competition with the Twins and Tribe who both have excellent left handed hitting lineups in the division, and compete with other AL playoff contenders like the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Angels and Rangers who all have tough left handed outs in their lineup, guys that can get left handed sticks out on the mound are a premium for you.



Given what we've seen from Willis in the last two years, I don't blame anyone for being skeptical that he has anything left to offer. And even if he does continue to put up quiet lines in spring training, the questions on when the next meltdown might be coming are always going to be there. But if he can make it back and be a reliable starting pitcher again, it will be quite a pleasant success story to follow, will it not? And he seems like a guy that deserves a story like that to happen for him. I'm rooting hard for him.

Welcome

Ladies and Gentlemen.....all 7 of you reading this LOL.....I see that Chris D has joined Thirty-Five and Five! (seriously...how fun was the 35-5 start in 1984? I'm thinking a series here on memories from those days has to happen!)

Chris will be the co-author of our "Little Tigers Blog That Could" and I'm sure he joins me in encouraging your comments!

Austin Jackson......looking good.

I've been on record for some time that I believe Dave Dombrowski has had a very positive off-season. I've been on board with each decision this off-season other than the Valverde Signing (click on the "$7M/yr Role Player" post to read more on that) which I believed was ill-conceived even though the guy is a nice pitcher.

But the biggest gamble in my mind is the trading of Curtis Granderson. There is no question that he could have a second act to his career in New York that could make the move seem regrettable. However you have to take risks and also there is no question that if Granderson had had another regressive season (his 3rd in a row possibly) his trade value would have shrunk plenty next off-season. So while it could blow up, I did like the big 3-team deal and feel good about what the Tigers received.

Austin Jackson is a big part of this obviously. He'll be the eventual replacement for Granderson and his progress matched up with Granderson's is how this trade will judged by many. Anyone looking for information on Jackson (do we like "A-Jax" as a nickname btw? Is it too obvious? Dunno...have to ruminate on that one for a while) probably found a lot of conflicting information his readiness and his ultimate ceiling. Is he a future star or "just" a future everyday contributor? Certainly his SLG% in 2200 minor league at-bats was nothing to attempt a somersault over seeing....and if you ever meet me you'll know I shouldn't be trying somersaults even though I'm fully insured.....

The good news, as we sit here on March 10th, is that Jackson is looking pretty darn good. He's even flashed a little power and drawn a few walks. Exactly what Leyland and Dombrowski were hoping to see I'm sure. The Tigers seemed to indicate all winter they acquired this guy because he's ready. Certainly w/less than 10 Spring Training games under his belt in Detroit we don't know anything for sure....but initial impressions seem pretty solid. We'll continue to watch and hope for more signs of progress.....I'll be most interested to hear more impressions of his defense in CF.....that might end up being a lot more important than if he posts a .750 OPS or an .800 OPS when its all said and done for this season.

Armando Galarraga

Armando Galarraga.....what happened? Well.....in '08 he had a nice little season. A 3.73 ERA in 175 IP and was gifted with a spiffy little 13-7 record. He started off in April of '09 picking up where he left off with a small handful of solid outings. Then it all caved in. He started getting smacked around pretty routinely and his ERA was skyrocketing.....only the great work of Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello covered up Galarraga's plummeting contributions.

It appears that it was pretty much a combination of scouting reports and good luck turning bad that did Galarraga in. Teams were laying off his slider and his fastball command didn't look as good. His BB/9 (Base on Balls per 9 innings pitched) shot up over one full walk per game from the prior year while his K-rate inched down from '08. The other factor came in his BABIP (Batting Average of Balls In Play), for those uninitiated, a league average BABIP is usually around .290 to .300. This is the percentage of balls put in play off of a pitcher that fall for hits. Pitchers gravitate toward the league average...if a pitcher is well above they are considered unlucky and due for a run of better luck. Vice versa if a pitcher is well below the league average, they're considered inordinately lucky. Galarraga's in '08 was a likely unsustainable .248. In other words, he had a leprechaun on his shoulder for much of '08. In '09 his BABIP rose to .302 and w/that his results sank to predictable levels.

How will he adjust in '10? Anyone's guess. He'll need his slider to start drawing swing and misses again plus he needs to regain better command of his fastball. However in the end, he just might not be that good. '08 was enjoyable...it really was....but Armando just might have been a One-Hit Wonder.

Nationals/Tigers game

Today was a pretty good day of Spring Training baseball. Playing in the mythical town of Viera, FL (according to Tom Gage, nowhere to be found on a map!) today's game featured two of the brightest young stars anywhere in the sports world.

Rick Porcello was great. He pitched three shutout innings and induced 7 groundball outs. There is no question that he can become an amazing groundie-machine and that will lead to a lot of success. Over time as he matures and adds to his arsenal his K-rate should blossom a bit as well (remember Game 163 when he let loose a little more and K'd 8 Twins in 5+ IP, the ability is there to blow guys away when he has to). A high groundball%/solid K-rate will be an awesome package to take the hill with.

Stephen Strasburg was as advertised on the mound for the Nationals. He looked great. Two shutout innings striking out 2 batters and inducing some very weak grounders. His two K's showed his range of plus-stuff. He blew a high heater right through Miguel Cabrera's wheelhouse for a swinging strike 3 and then he dropped the hammer on a big curve and buckled Dlugach's knees for a strike 3 looking. The sky is the limit for Strasburg. How great will it be for a transcendent talent like him to emerge and pump new life into the dead baseball scene in Washington D.C. He might be the kind of talent that can turn that entire franchise's fortunes.

Perhaps the best moment for the Tigers' hopes in '10 came when Magglio Ordonez just plain smoked an opposite field 3-run homer. That was a long deep drive we saw very little of last year, especially in the '09's first several months. A revitalized Magglio will be what the doctor ordered. It was hilarious to see how shallow the Nationals' outfield was playing Maggs on that drive. They had to turn and high-tail it for the fence...no question last year's scouting report was in play prior to that shot. Hopefully that's just a harbinger of more and more from Ordonez to follow!

Winning isn't everything.....its the ONLY thing.

(full disclosure....I'm a Green Bay Packers fan and I've attended about 25 games at Lambeau Field over the years plus a smattering of Packers games in other cities)

Robert DeNiro is going to be playing the role of Vince Lombardi in a motion picture slated for release in early 2012. That should be pretty great. The writer who wrote the screenplay for "Forrest Gump" and "The Good Shepard" is penning the script.

Anyone looking for a good football read should definitely check out David Mariniss' book on Lombardi called "When Pride Still Mattered". Mariniss also wrote "Clemente" a couple of years ago....a great read on the Pirate HOF'er.

Molehill meet the Mountain!

Twins fans crying in their beer (GrainBelt Premium no doubt) over the news this morning that Joe Nathan has a torn UCL in his right elbow. Not good. He's going to attempt to pitch with it....but let's be honest, he'll be going under the knife eventually.

Already notes getting posted about the "devastating news" and so on for the Twins. Personally, I doubt its a development that derails them. They have other options in-house to assume the role of the vaunted "Closer". I think the biggest thing is that it shuffles the roles and now someone else will be getting primetime innings in the 6th, 7th, and 8th that would have been buried deeper on the depth chart previously.

Even though the Twins have expanded their payroll significantly this year, this injury does show the risk a mid-market team like the Twins runs when they invest a 4-yr deal at significant money into a pitcher who is hitting his mid-30's and pitches about 60 innings per year. The Twins are on the hook for about $24M remaining on Nathan's deal. The $11.25M for this year looks like a sunk cost now.....how he bounces back from Tommy John Surgery will determine what value they get from the rest of his deal. I posted my doubts in another forum about Nathan's deal when it was signed. I felt they could have traded Nathan, gained some good prospects, and saved Nathan's cash toward the Mauer-Extension Fund. But the Twins did what they did....and they did get two excellent seasons from Nathan to start the deal. Years 3 and 4 are in doubt right now however.

Speak softly in his presence, treat him with respect, and do not offend HIM....

Stephen Strasburg.....He has arrived!!! Strasburg makes his maiden voyage in a Washington Nationals' uniform tomorrow versus the Tigers. MLB Network will broadcast that game at 12 CST. There hasn't been a more hotly anticipated debut in years.

I really enjoyed tracking Strasburg's epic college career with the San Diego State Aztecs thru last season. He first came on my radar with a 23 strike out performance againt the mighty Utah Utes during his sophomore season and he went on to become the only amateur player on the US Olympic team that went to Beijing. Then it was a matter of marveling at the outing to outing dominance he exhibited throughout his final college season last year. Video game strike out totals were what he was posting time and again. It was a fait accompli' that he'd be the first overall pick in the Rule 4 Draft last June....the suspense came with the negotiations to sign him. Would he break the bank on a mega-signing or exercise his final piece of leverage and go back to college for his senior season. In the end he signed for less money than many had speculated throughout the process and now he starts his journey up the MLB ladder.

Will Strasburg be the next Roger Clemens....or is he the next Mark Prior/David Clyde? Or is he merely the next Ron Darling? Either way its going to be a very fun to see if Strasburg's God-like (yes I'm playing the "deity" card...hey, I'm a big believer in the guy!) performances in college and the endless awestruck accolades translate into a legendary big league career. His plus stuff extends to all his offerings and he can push 100+ w/his fastball according to most. Will he single-handedly (to the extent you can do things single-handedly in baseball) turn the fortunes of the woeful Washington Nationals? Will they hold him back on his MLB debut in the regular season until June to limit his service time and delay his free agency a year?

As for the Tigers they should have a fun time seeing the kid up close and personal. I have to think they'll enjoy taking their hacks at the kid w/the big rep. By coincidence the Tigers witnessed Jason Heyward of the Braves hit a mammoth blast against them today.....so they'll be seeing the Top 2 prospects the game has to offer on consecutive days.

MAX-imum Impact?

Max Scherzer lasted 1/3rd of an inning today getting shelled for his second straight Spring Training start. I'm sure plenty of Tigers fans are shaking their heads already....(yes Virginia, I do believe sports fans are a bit wimpy on the whole!)....Scherzer was acquired from D-backs to replace Edwin Jackson. Certainly Jackson's 60% of a dominant season will be hard to replace.

But Scherzer comes with a solid reputation. The guy is a stud in the making. He struck out 174 batters in 170 IP last year while walking 63. His heater is one of baseball's best. Will his game translate to the tougher American League is the question. The man is a big talent....I would implore Tigers fans to not meltdown over two rough outings in early Spring Training....you know, especially since they don't count. Let's allow the young man to get himself in shape and work his way into form. He'll prove himself over time wearing The Olde English D is the bet from this writer's view.

MLB umpire Tim McClelland did wonder, in response to a question I posed for him on his radio show here in Des Moines, if Scherzer's pitches have enough of a wrinkle to work in the AL. A valid question and only one that will proven over time....we shall see.

The big thing is that Scherzer is still young, under club control for 4+ more seasons at reasonable rates, and is oozing big talent. Edwin Jackson was going to get more expensive to hold from this point and is fast approaching Free Agency. With Scott Boras as his agent we all know where this was heading. Either a massive extension for Jackson which he may, or may not, have deserved, a pre-Free Agency Trade by the Tigers (which may, or may not, have yielded someone better than Max Scherzer), or losing Jackson to free agency with the two comp picks in return. Getting a young guy like Scherzer, plus the others in the trade, made sense to me. Now we just have to watch him develop and see if the Tigers have a rotation cog they can plug in each year for the first half of this decade.

Oscar night

Damn! I forgot to care this year......oh well.

Actually it just was one of those years where I didn't see many contenders. Saw "Up in the Air" (liked it, didn't LOVE it).....read "The Blind Side" but didn't see the movie.

Somehow my life doesn't feel empty because of my Oscar disinterest this year! HA!

All Hail the Spring Training Shooting Star

Ryan Strieby went deep again today in his first at-bat with a deep shot. He is off to a great start this Spring showing that his wrist injury is probably healed fully.

Last year he was really doing a great job at the plate at AA-Erie despite being in year-long battle to keep his wrist healthy. He was limited to 86 games but he made the most of it. He posted a slash line of .303/.427/.565....good for an impressive .992 OPS. His walk rate was very solid and his ISO was an impressive .262. He has a power/patience combo that isn't exactly in over-supply in the Tigers minor league system. If Strieby was a lefty bat he'd be poking around near the top of prospect lists....but even though he's a righty his level of production has him knocking hard on the door.

So what can we expect from Mr. Strieby moving forward. The hope here is that he keeps smoking Spring Training pitching and really starts to force the hand of Dave Dombrowski to find a spot for him. Can Strieby make the adjustment from 1B to LF? If he can just make himself a slightly below average fielder in Left Field it looks like he'll hit enough to off-set the defensive shortcomings out there. As long as he doesn't become "Adam Dunn-ish" and bumble/stumble around out there the Tigers might make it work. Especially if Austin Jackson's promise as a defensive CenterFielder is fulfilled....Jackson playing to a very solid level in CF and flanking Strieby can work.

It will be very interesting to see if Strieby is going to maintain this pace through the Spring. If he does get sent to Toledo to start the season I think there is a good chance that he keeps hitting and forces his way to Detroit. A healthy wrist is going to make the difference....

Verlander makes an appearance

These initial outings by starting pitchers in Spring Training are of the "blink and you'll miss it" variety.....but anytime your Ace takes the hill its an event worth noting.

Is there a more important Tiger right now? Is there any hope of contending if his season looks more like '08 rather than '09?

Personally I think he's ready to keep rolling. I think he's a strong guy and tough one as well who is ready to battle it out. I don't believe there is any chance his spiffy new contract takes away any of the warrior mentality he takes the hill with.

His massive workload is the only worry. He pitched a ton of innings last year and faced a lot of batters. You gotta work to strike out 269 batters in one season. The good news is that he looked strong in September and October....he wasn't running on fumes like Edwin Jackson was by the time August rolled in.

The highlight of my trip to Kansas City was perhaps witnessing the turnaround of Verlander's season in some respect. He had struggled in his first couple of starts as many will remember. Just after getting cuffed around in his previous start I was able to watch from maybe 25 feet away as Verlander and pitching coach Rick Knapp worked through Verlander's "throw day" work out in the Kansas City bullpen. Knapp and Verlander were chatting after every other pitch or so. I'd estimate that Verlander threw about 80 pitches that day....90% of them were from the Stretch. I'm guessing they were working on something specific that was hurting Verlander through the first few outings with runners on base. Well....either because of what they worked on that day or by sheer coincidence, Verlander took off for the rest of the season from there forward. One of the better seasons by a Tigers' starting pitcher in my lifetime if I were going to rank them.

Can he do it again in '10? (or at least a reasonable facsimile thereof!) We shall see....

Rotation Depth

People who follow the Tigers get very lost in the ramifications of losing Placido Polanco (Philly GM Ruben Amaro said the other day, "we got Polanco because he's a baseball player". Gee...stunning revelation. It'd be like Ernst&Young saying "we got Smith because that guy is an Actuary's Actuary". Amaro's comment gets a "3-Puke" rating on my 5-Puke Scale.) and the Tigers losing Curtis Granderson. They also worry about how the rookies will hold up and what Johnny Damon has left in the tank. I'm not saying these are illegitimate concerns. But 2010's fate is in the hands of the pitching staff. The Starting Rotation to more exact.

Justin Verlander was a pure and simple stud last year. You can't ask for a whole lot more than what he gave them. He also threw 10% more pitches than any other pitcher in baseball. How will he bounce back from that workload? Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer are young pitchers that both exceeded their prior workloads by rather substantial margins. Their early progress this season will be something to track very closely.

Then you get into the Comeback Moshpit. Bonderman, Willis, Robertson, Galarraga. All have had issues....all of them with different levels of concern. Can the Tigers cobble together 50 to 55 starts from these guys that at least approach league-average production? Kind of hard to envision to be honest. Bonderman gives us the most hope I think. At least he looked good in his first Spring outing fwiw.

I suppose we must also acknowledge the presence of Eddie Bonine and Al Figaro. I imagine there is some utility to be reaped from those two. I really have a hard time imagining the Tigers leaning on the young Casey Crosby this season. I see his arrival ETA is sometime around the middle of the 2011 campaign.

The Tigers held it together on the strength of their starting pitching last season and their defense. The pitching sucked wind in September when the Washburn Trade failed to give them the infusion of starting pitching needed. It was the right move that just had a bad result. Can the Tigers go the distance w/what's on hand this year? I dunno.....I really would have liked to see them roll the dice on a Rich Harden or a Ben Sheets this year. I think that would have been money better spent then the cash they invested on Jose Valverde.....

Miscellaneous Fulminations....

Spanning the Globe....

The Diamondbacks new deal with Justin Upton is pretty solid for the club. 6-yr/$51M....I believe Upton is a superstar in the making. The Tigers will pay Miguel Cabrera nearly $75M for the same swath of his career that the D-Backs will pay Upton starting now.

Paul Ryan for President? If I was making a "Future's Bet" in w/a London bookie, I'd put down a few sheckels on Paul Ryan for President in '16 or '20. I think the young Congressman from Wisconsin is the Republican Party's now and future star. The Wall Street Journal has an article titled at "Paul Ryan vs. The President" today. A good read.

Max Scherzer had a rough debut in a Tigers' uniform today in Exhibition action. Certainly its meaningless as this is mostly about getting in shape right now. "Mad Max" is going to be fun to watch in the OED....I cannot wait to see the real deal once the season starts. Scherzer is also a stat-geek! Gotta like that. He can quote chapter and verse on VORP and WPA...my kinda player!

The episode of "Criminal Minds" last night was creepy. Its not a perfect show....but it rarely is a total crud-fest either. (btw...we need some new episodes of "Castle"....gotta get a good Stana Katic fix here soon! Hey...even my wife thinks she's smokin' hot!)

Verlander should be taking the hill here in Spring Training soon. Rick Porcello was off to a good start today....Verlander's debut is eagerly anticipated by many.

Makes sense....

Michael Cera is probably going to be cast to play "Gilligan". That's really couldn't be more perfect, at least visually.

Hopefully its just a solid script. Cera was great in "Superbad", "Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist", and "Juno". However the Jack Black time travel movie Cera appeared in was given some horrendous reviews and folks voted on its quality by staying away.

Spring Training heroes

A grand tradition of Spring Training is warming up in Lakeland. Brent Dlugach has hit his second homer in Grapefruit League action today! The aging prospect needs to earn a gig here soon or basically slip into "minor league lifer" status.

Dlugach is a shortstop by trade but was in at second-base today replacing Scott Sizemore in the middle innings. Fans are already buzzing softly about Dlugach charging hard thru the Spring schedule and replacing the light-hitting Adam Everett.

I think we're a long way from that happening.....let's see Dlugach keep it up for a few weeks...even if he does I think he ends up back in Toledo. I just have a hunch that Jim Leyland is going to lean heavily toward the coveted "veteran presence" that Everett provides. (I'd rather see Leyland go with the better player no matter who that is....we'll see how it plays out)

Tiger Woods

I've been a big fan of Tiger Woods since his Amateur playing days. I first followed him in a gallery in his last appearance in a Major before turning professional at the '96 US Open in Detroit. I saw him again at the PGA Championship at the Hazeltine CC in Chaska, MN a few years later.('02?)

Woods' 2000 season is still one of the highlights of my life as a golf fan. It was epic and that word doesn't really capture the brilliance.

So Tiger's fall from grace over the last few months has been disappointing. There is no real defense for his behavior. He has created his mess and he must atone for it.

But, in the end, I'm rooting hard for Woods to comeback strong. I want his iron will (on the course! Off the course....not so much) to return and see that steely eyed focus again. I want him to dominate golf tournaments to his old '00 levels to stick his thumb in the eye of his "critics"....the ones who merely were capitalizing on his troubles for personal gain in stature. (there have been too many to note them all) I think, on the course, he goes into full onslaught "F-You" mode (one of Bill Simmons' better concepts) and starts to dominantly blow away the field when he shakes off the rust from his hiatus. Pebble Beach sounds like the right time for the US Open in June.

$7M/year Role Player

Jose Valverde....a good pitcher. He should do a pretty solid job ending games for the Tigers this year. But I still think the job of Closer is one of baseball's most overrated spots. These guys get paid more than position playing regulars for pitching 60 or 70 innings. They are designated as "special" because the game is "on the line" (OTL)in the 9th.

Well.....the game is OTL in the 7th and 8th inning as well. I still contend if an opposing club's 3-4-5 hitters are due up in the 8th and you're up 1-run its silly to save your best pitcher for the ninth when the game is clearly OTL in the 8th.

All too often The Closer is pitching by starting an inning w/a 2 or 3 run lead and the bottom of the order due up. This isn't the toughest gig in sports....yet by Rep and by Payroll they're treated as such.

I will enjoy Jose Valverde's showman antics....his "stylin' and profilin'" schtick is fun. But Dombrowski's decision to go that route still irks me. The word hinted at yesterday by Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus that Bryce Harper could drift deep into the first round due to signability is really a red flag.....Detroit has been aggressive to go over-slot and draft guys who fall like Harper. If he's there at pick #19, where the Tigers should have been before coughing up the pick to the Astros for inking Valverde, I'm going to toss my cookies on draft day to be sure.

96?

Mark me down as less than thrilled w/the prospect of a 96 NCAA Basketball Tournament. Usually I like to embrace change (I'm all for Big Ten expansion and changing the landscape there for instance....) but I think a 64-team (okay 65!) is about right and its not something the public wants messed with.

Its funny that the NCAA wants to change something that the majority of the public thinks is just fine in the basketball tourney, but refuses to implement the change that a large majority wants with a football playoff.

Down goes Southern.....down goes Southern!

The Tigers took care of Florida Southern today 13-1. I was happy to read that nobody on the Tigers ever whines about having to play the college kids and that Leyland and Johnny Damon both took time to visit the FLA Southern dugout prior to the game to meet they young guys. Pretty cool for them I bet.

Ryan Strieby and Casper Wells both went deep. It would be great to see Strieby show all Spring that his wrist if better. I'm also anxious to hear more about his progress, assuming there is any, in the outfield. If he can make himself merely a below average outfielder (and not an Adam Dunn-ish outfielder!) he can probably play beside Austin Jackson in time if Jackson is as good as advertised in the field.

Florida Southern

The Tigers are about to play their annual tilt with FLA Southern! Truly the beginning of the baseball season.....yes!

No Scott Sizemore in the lineup today....a precaution against a wet field as his ankle recovers. Makes sense. Phil Coke on the hill today as well.