Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Molehill meet the Mountain!

Twins fans crying in their beer (GrainBelt Premium no doubt) over the news this morning that Joe Nathan has a torn UCL in his right elbow. Not good. He's going to attempt to pitch with it....but let's be honest, he'll be going under the knife eventually.

Already notes getting posted about the "devastating news" and so on for the Twins. Personally, I doubt its a development that derails them. They have other options in-house to assume the role of the vaunted "Closer". I think the biggest thing is that it shuffles the roles and now someone else will be getting primetime innings in the 6th, 7th, and 8th that would have been buried deeper on the depth chart previously.

Even though the Twins have expanded their payroll significantly this year, this injury does show the risk a mid-market team like the Twins runs when they invest a 4-yr deal at significant money into a pitcher who is hitting his mid-30's and pitches about 60 innings per year. The Twins are on the hook for about $24M remaining on Nathan's deal. The $11.25M for this year looks like a sunk cost now.....how he bounces back from Tommy John Surgery will determine what value they get from the rest of his deal. I posted my doubts in another forum about Nathan's deal when it was signed. I felt they could have traded Nathan, gained some good prospects, and saved Nathan's cash toward the Mauer-Extension Fund. But the Twins did what they did....and they did get two excellent seasons from Nathan to start the deal. Years 3 and 4 are in doubt right now however.

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