Dave Dombrowski has made a big change in the future fortunes of the Detroit Tigers' rotation. There are no more bloated long term commitments providing too much ballast to the payroll. Only Justin Verlander has an expensive contract and he has proven to be a pretty solid workhorse. The rest of the Tigers rotation (and all possible replacement depth) is under team control at extremely low rates for the next few years. Dombrowski has pivoted away from expensive starting pitching to young talented cheap starting pitching. If this young cadre of arms hits expectations the Tigers will be in a very advantageous payroll position in the next few years. The most expensive and hard to find commodity in baseball will be under control at cheaper rates...this should allow him to spend some money on position players. Here is a look at the Tigers rotation for 2011:
1. Justin Verlander-- Probably the best pitcher in the AL Central and perhaps one of baseball's 6 or 8 best. Certainly no club with him at the head of a rotation needs to issue apologies for being happy w/their ace. A workhorse to this point in his career for the modern game. Throws 120+ pitches more than just about anyone. Has stayed strong late into the season two years in a row. 2008 "clunker" really wasn't as bad as the W/L record, though it was a low point. Signed long term. Seems very competitive in nature. Its interesting to wonder how high he can go? Is there another gear we haven't seen? Or will the workload catch up one year?
2. Max Scherzer-- I'll never believe he was available in trade at his age/cost/talent-level. Stunning move by Dombrowski to get that trade done. Started out w/an "okay" first four starts before getting hammered relentlessly for the next 4 starts...sent to Toledo, fixed his arm slot, came back to dominate from May 31st forward. Not afraid to pitch inside...mean slider...."show me" changeup that seemed to get a touch better late...nasty heater said to have "late life". Seems to have cleaned up the messy mechanics he was said to have in college at Mizzou....you don't hear that much anymore. Most feel the D-Backs traded him because they felt he wouldn't hold up health-wise. So far so good for the Tigers. A great complement to Verlander.
3. Rick Porcello---the young phenom probably learned a lot last year. He didn't fold up the tent after struggling and heading to Toledo. No reason to treat that as anything but a positive sign...he didn't bury his head in the sand. Biggest problem on paper seems to be a lack of K's....not many starters have success long term with K-rates around 4.50 which is where he hovers. However go back to game 163 in '09. He showed the heat and ability to go upstairs and miss bats. If a few more K's become a part of his repertoire in addition to his groundball tendencies then the Tigers have a budding Ace. Porcello was among a small handful of pitchers who throw their fastball more than 70% of the time.....so the Tigers limit his arsenal at times and that probably is sensible on a 21-yr old arm. If they unleash his curve and changeup a bit more some good things are going to happen I believe. If the K's stay low then they probably "only" have a mid-to-late rotation guy...which is okay but doesn't match the draft status and prospect hype. We'll see how it goes.
4. Phil Coke---Three pitch guy with enough velocity from the left-side to compete. Successful starter in AA-ball. No real reason he can't find success in the rotation if the Tigers remain patient. Pulling the plug after a month if he's struggling would be questionable....just let him pitch. I think he'll figure it out. Coke can follow in the footsteps of a long, and at times distinguished, list of guys who made the conversion to the rotation. A starter blows away the value of a reliever....let's hope Coke can make the switch.
5. Brad Penny---two questions: Can he stay healthy? Will the work with Dave Duncan that seemed to change his approach/results (over only 55 IP admittedly) hold up in the American League and with Duncan out of the picture? Rick Knapp....watch the tapes...give Duncan a call. Figure this out. If Penny can rip off a good season this rotation takes a step to another level....his motivation level to score a big deal next year should be high. I'd be surprised if both Coke and Penny have solid seasons...but I don't think the Tigers need both to succeed. If one steps in and supports the JV/MS/RP troika things will be fine.
6. Andy Oliver---Solid lefty prospect. Has the velocity to compete on the big league level. Can he harness it all and throw strikes? Remains to be seen. Many thought he was a Top 10 draft selection in the year prior to him coming out for the draft....but his lawsuit and other distractions through his final year at OK State into flux and he fell to the Tigers. His legal issues against the NCAA might end having really benefited the Tigers by making him available.
7. Charlie Furbush---Furbush had insane K/BB rates in High-A and very solid numbers in AA-Erie. He ran out of gas in Toledo but he was well above his career high in innings pitched when he got there. He might have been on fumes pitching for his third club of the summer. Overall it was a good year for a guy coming back from Tommy John Surgery. He's no star potential guy....but there is no reason he can't be the next Luke French or something even a touch better (he had better K-rates last year than French ever had). Good guy to have around in the system.
I felt last year that the Tigers would go as far Scherzer, Verlander, and Porcello would take them. To some extent that was true. Verlander did what he could do. Scherzer was great for 2/3rds of the year but not the whole way. Porcello didn't quite pitch to the necessary level. Certainly there were other issues the club encountered in '10 that cost them...no argument there....but it fell on those three to carry the load pitching-wise. Not much has changed.....I think Coke and Penny might be better bets than last year back-of-the-rotation crew but unless one really uncorks a humdinger of a year its incumbent on the top 3 guys to pull the bus.
The Tigers should have a decent bullpen supporting them if things come together....they have some injury risk in that 'pen but bullpens are flaky by nature all over the place, so you just cross your fingers and hope for the best. Defensively this might not be the Tigers best defensive club. Jackson and Raburn should be able to hold the fort in the outfield. Inge should still be an above average defender. We'll see how the rest of the infield coalesces. Scherzer and Verlander should strike out enough to marginalize some of those worries. Coke is a flyball guy, so the infield shouldn't kill him either. So it boils down to the groundball pitchers...Porcello and Penny. Will the Tigers' infield support these two enough might as important a question as there is for this ballclub this year.
The Tigers have enough talent in this rotation to compete. Assuming decent health, they can get it done on the hill.
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