Tigers in 2010

Off-season: Mostly good moves in my opinion. It was time shake things up. Last year's overachieving ballclub was not a mere tweak or two away from being a realistic contender. Adding younger talent and committing to younger players on hand makes a ton of sense. Paring some additional payroll while the other major "bad" contracts melt away this year was good planning as well.

Brad Thomas might be a quiet gem of a move. Adding Scherzer and Schlereth made sense. Austin Jackson has a high enough ceiling to take the chance on. Phil Coke is probably just a guy with a good name for one-liners but only league-average production. Signing Johnny Damon was a good gamble. Cheap-ish short commitment, provides a skill at the top of the order that was missing previously.

I did not agree with the Jose Valverde signing. He is a very nice pitcher and I do believe he'll play well for Detroit. That isn't the issue. The commitment of giving a 65 inning role player the most money of any reliever in free agency and sacrificing the first round draft pick was a major over-commitment from Dombrowski. It won't appear such on the surface if Valverde stays healthy and notches 35 saves...but it was nonetheless. I also have major misgivings about the Nate Robertson Trade. I do not believe in that move. Nate was already a sunk cost and I do not believe his disappointment in starting in the bullpen would have hurt the team. I think he would have been decent insurance...in baseball's mysterious ways lefty pitchers can resurrect and reinvent themselves occasionally. I like Nate's chances a bit more than Willis'.

Deletions: The biggest gamble was letting Curtis Granderson go in a trade. He could certainly post some big seasons in New York's lineup and in their little park. Dombrowski's judgement really to the test here as the Granderson/A-Jax comparisons will be made. I believe DD had fair reasons for the trade in the end. Granderson was only going to get more expensive every year and he had regressed two years in a row...one more regression meant not being able to trade him for the talent the Tigers did get in return most likely.

Placido Polanco was a likeable little fellow who had 1.5 great years in Detroit and a couple of modest years. The Tigers had few expiring contracts this year at positions where they also had a player being groomed to play that was judged ready. However Second Base was one spot where this fell together....so it was a pretty easy call. Polanco landed softly on a contender with a ludicrously long and generous contract...I'm happy for him.

Fernando Rodney was a favorite player of mine (as was Granderson)....I'll miss watching him pitch. But he's a streaky reliever who felt he could do better elsewhere, so be it. I was also a major proponent of Brandon Lyon being signed (and not being cut when the wolves were howling over him to axed in April)...but he received the longest contract of any reliever in Free Agency....more power to him but the Tigers had no reason to match or beat that offer. Good luck in Houston.

Spring Training: Lots to like....several young guys showed promise and a few vets looked solid once again. However good Springs mean about as much as rough Springs. Everybody starts over on Monday.

The Tiger' Ceiling: I think you can make a case for 90+ wins if a lot of things go right. The top 3 in the rotation carrying some serious weight, Bondo having a presentable year, Magglio playing well for six months, Cabrera stepping up one more notch, A-Jax and Sizemore progressing throughout the year, Perry coming of age....and so on.

Inhibiting Factors: The Tigers starting pitchers at the top of their rotation all had big workload bounces last year will they comeback strong?

Is Carlos Guillen cooked? Or can he rebound with decent year?

Will the rookies contribute or will there be a revolving door at those two spots? I'm confident in them both, but nothing is proven yet, it could go either way. The kind of gamble I like though.

Will Zumaya help them or torpedo more games than he contributes positively to.?

Willis? Oh boy....we'll see. All I know is that I'm excited to see how it shakes out.

The Tigers won an inordinate amount of close games last year (2nd best record in the AL in games decided by 2-runs or less), that is hard to do two years in a row. They are also running up against The Plexiglass Principle, which holds that teams that who win 10+ more games over the previous year AND overperform their Pythagorean Record by a significant amount (the Tigers did both) usually fall back in the next season. I believe only two teams (out of dozens) in the modern era have qualified for this like the Tigers did last year and then taken the next step to be a playoff team the following the year. Its called the Plexiglass Principle because instead of breaking thru the wall with the good season the wall usually snaps back into place knocking the team backward for a year. I know many folks will think this is hogwash...I don't care about them....history is a powerful guide many times and this "Principle" has been as consistent as almost anything else.

The Organization as a Whole: I really like where this club stands and the direction its heading. They have two marquee players locked up longterm in Verlander and Cabrera. They have their worst commitments drying up this year for the most part. They are committing to younger talent (real talent, not wing-n-a-prayer prospects). They have at least a modest amount of position prospects creeping up in the system for depth. They have a couple of elite arms in the minors and shown the fortitude to get them to the majors early when warranted. Porcello and Scherzer are young and under team control at cheap rates for several more years. The Tigers are showing a commitment to global scouting and continuing to pay premium prices for draft picks, which is a good investment.

Whether or not this yields immediate success in 2010 is not a concern to me (no, its not that I "don't care how they finish", I just don't see the finality of a season's results, the next season is on the way). There is something building in Detroit in my opinion, it may flash this year...or it may take some patience. I have patience as long as the plan makes sense to me.

Predictive History: This is lined up as a "bad year" for me in forecasting the Tigers' fortunes. I was one game off in '05. I was way off in '06 (I said 81, they won 95). I hit it right on the money in '07 w/88 wins. I was way off in '08 (I said 92, they won 74). I nailed it right on 86 wins last year. So I'm tempted to say 77 so they'll win 88! LOL

Where it all adds up.: I tend to be optimistic....especially this time of year. "Tigers Fever" has been my enemy on predicting where they stand....I truly wanted to downgrade the '08 club but couldn't pull the trigger (I'm not talking about the depths they fell to...just something like 86 wins) as I had misgivings about that team. I have good feelings about the state of the organization now though. I like the defensive unit they've assembled. Laird, Inge, Everett, and Jackson will be good at the critical defensive positions. I do believe they'll score about 40 more runs over last year. I worry that the new levels of workload established by Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer last year will bit them a bit this year. However Porcello looks phenomenal right now.....a true Ace in the making to complement Verlander. Scherzer has a ceiling in their neighborhood as well perhaps. These three are probably enough to get them places if they can post close to 100 starts between them. I have some belief Bonderman can contribute. I am excited to see what Willis can do. The bullpen should be adequate maybe more than that. I think the Rookies will be "okay"...I have a feeling Sizemore outproduces Jackson offensively but not by a ton. If Jackson can play a solid CF, he'll be fine. Sizemore has hit at every level and is showing more power of late. His glove will play well enough. Can he stay healthy? His history has some marks on it there.

The Tigers also have some surplus outfielders to trade in their system and perhaps Ryan Strieby since he's blocked by Cabrera...so Dombrowski should be able to add a player if necessary during the year.

So I'm going to commit to 85 wins. I think the extra 40 runs the offense might produce will enable them to ward off the factors that I think were a bit lucky in producing 86 wins last year....so no drastic fall off now in the win column and a better future on the horizon. Is this my optimistic side? Yes. A week ago I was convincing myself they'd win 76 and that's it.....but Porcello's development looks like it may not plateau this year, Damon's signing should work out, and Magglio playing well batting third would mean the world over Clete Thomas batting third. So 85 wins it is....being on target for 85 wins should have them in position to play meaningful games in August/September.