Keys on offense: Damon, Mags, and Guillen - The Tigers will go as far offensively as the old dudes can carry them. Damon and Mags looked terrific right now. Guillen creaky. Ryan Raburn can help pick up the slack coming off the bench for support as well, but the Tigers offense can rebound in a big way if those three guys perform to their career standards.
Keys to the starting pitching: Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer - All eyes were on the back end of the rotation throughout the spring to see who would make the team, but now eyes need to focus on the big guns. First and foremost - the Tigers cannot be any good if Verlander, Porcello, and Scherzer aren't as good as they were last year. At least, two of those three have to have big years for this team to contend. You worry about the 09 workload on Verlander having an ill effect this year. You worry about Porcello's still tender age and avoiding a sophomore slump. You worry about Scherzer switching leagues and improving his performance versus left hand hitters which he'll see plenty of from American League contenders. On the positive side, the Tigers almost can't help but get more support from the back end of the rotation than they did last year.
Keys on defense: Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore. If they play like they did this spring, the Tigers will be just fine defensively. Up the middle defense was a strength of the team for most of last year (although in the last month Granderson had a few high profile uncharacteristic miscues and Polanco couldn't keep a ball not hit right at him in the infield). The left side of the infield will be a strength again - as will catching with Laird controlling the other teams running game. If Jackson makes the seamless transition that people expect from him defensively in CF and Sizemore continues to play like he did in spring training, defense will again be an overall team strength for the Tigers.
Keys to the Bullpen - Ryan Perry and Joel Zumaya. The Tigers bullpen should be good. Valverde solidifies the back end; and in front of him, the Tigers have RHs that get RHs out and LHs that get LHs out - so Leyland should be able to mix and match well. In Perry and Zumaya though, the Tigers bullpen has a chance to go from good to great, if these guys can live up to their potential as dominant set ups v RH or LH pitching. The Tigers should get back to having a pen that protects leads at 70% or better (after last years set up shakiness had them at 63%), and it could be mid70s type pen if everything falls into place. That could mean 2-4 wins in the win column.
At the end of the day, I'm most worried about the starting pitching. Verlander has been mostly terrific in the last four years, but his 08 showed he's capable of a clunker season if he's not 100% right physically. Coming back strong from last years heavy work load on him will be a test for him. Porcello's talent is almost unfathomable - how can a kid this young be this good? Few 21 yr olds in baseball carry as big of a burden as he does, but he seems to have the shoulders for it. Incredible. It worries me having two RH pitchers in Scherzer and Bonderman who struggle to get LH hitters out in a division where contenders the Twins and Tribe send up some of the games best LH hitters. The Tigers pitching should be bad news head to head for the White Sox all right handed line up though. I was pretty confident that at least one of the four Tigers reclamation projects would rebound this year, but since they decided to just give Nate Robertson away to boost the confidence of Willis and Bonderman - my confidence in that group has been slashed by 25-33%. I don't rule out Galarraga contributing at some point though, and I like what I see from Willis and Bonderman enough to think we're going to get more from the back end of the rotation than we did last year.
In short, I think the offense will be better if the old dudes hold up - the defense will be mostly solid again - and the bully should be better and could be a real strength. If the Tigers get starting pitching, I think they'll be right there with the Twins to the end in the division again.
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