I'm a fan of Roy Oswalt. He was a terrific pitcher in the middle part of this last decade. He's still a very good pitcher who is off to a hot start this season.
That's all well and good. But I'd be saying "no thanks" to Ed Wade if he called unless the price in prospects was very reasonable.
Oswalt is 32 and would be switching leagues to the tougher loop. The last couple of years, prior to this good stretch he's currently on, there were whispers around that he was losing something and wasn't the guy he was. Which is perfectly natural and happens all the time. Its no death-sentence to be entering your middle-30's....he can still be very good as he's currently showing. But how much do you pay for that? He's making $15M this year, $16M in '11, and has a club option for '12 for another $16M or a $2M buyout. So he's not cheap.....but what would be a fair deal for his services?
First off, I saw some ideas of "Porcello for Oswalt" yesterday. Let's dispense with that madness now....that won't be happening. Dombrowski should be banished to be the Athletic Director of the Louisiana State Penitentiary instead of a MLB GM if he does that.
Second, Houston can expect "premium" prospects all they want....but I have a feeling they won't be getting a power-packed list of names. I'd see something closer to the Jake Peavy Trade package that the Padres got from the White Sox. The Astros have one of baseball's weakest farm systems by general acclimation. They have massive depth problems and they probably should try to find a slew of good players to patch into their system. I think a package including talented but not top shelf Tigers' prospects could get a deal done. Oliver (once he's PTBNL-eligible), Schlereth, Boesch, Marte', Strieby, Wells, Sizemore, Bishop, Furbush, and so on. A reasonable package of players could be assembled from that list. If the prices start going up into the Scherzer, Turner, Crosby range then I'd pass.
I think if the Rangers sale can get done that they would be a logical destination for Oswalt. Oswalt is supposedly tight with the Astros owner....so he'll make sure Roy goes somewhere that he wants to go. Detroit may not even be on the list anyhow. Oswalt has a full no-trade clause, so even though he's requested a trade he can turn down places he wants no part of. The AL West would make by far the most sense if he's going to switch leagues....the weak sister offenses are out there and the Rangers have a shot to contend over the life of his contract. (I still have suspicions that the owner won't approve a deal...he has a hard time letting go of "his guys"....see Biggio/Bagwell)
In the end my opinion is this.....if Roy Oswalt would consider being a Tiger that's great. But he's switching leagues, he's 32, and he's owed a ton of money. I wouldn't want the Tigers to pay thru the teeth for that....they'd be paying for his past exploits in the NL, not what he might do in the AL moving forward from the current day. A reasonable price....nothing more.
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